MGEE changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $72.27 → $79.53(+10.0%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 5, 2026 → Feb 4, 2027
- Thesis
- The market prices MGE Energy as a small, slow-growing utility that must issue new shares and debt to pay for its investments. Its electric rates rose only 0.15% in 2026 under the rate settlement, and it sold new shares in May 2026. The value depends much on interest rates, because investors buy the stock mainly for its dividend. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The approved increase of 3.63% in electric rates and 2.04% in gas rates for 2027 must take effect, as the settlement says. The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin must approve the 2027 Fuel Cost Plan by the end of 2026. MGE must complete its solar, wind and battery projects near their approved costs, so that rate base and earnings grow. The Q3 2026 removed: report, expected in early added: report on November removed: 2026, added: 4, 2026 showed higher earnings from the larger rate base, and the full-year report in early 2027 removed: give added: gives the next evidence. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which lower the value of utility shares and raise the cost of new debt.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $17M added: $11M Debt: $934M Net debt: removed: $917M added: $923M Interest cover: removed: 4.5× added: 5.1× Debt due within 12 months: removed: $55M added: $56M At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, debt was $934 million: long-term debt of removed: $879 added: $878 million, long-term debt due within one year of removed: $21 added: $6 million and short-term debt of removed: $35 added: $50 million. Cash was removed: $17 added: $11 million. added: In January 2026, Madison Gas and Electric issued $90 million of senior unsecured notes, and in September 2026 it repaid $15 million of debt. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the removed: first half of added: nine months to September 30, 2026. On October 1, 2026, MGE Energy and Madison Gas and Electric extended their credit agreements to October 1, 2031. removed: At June added: On September 30, 2026, added: the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin allowed Madison Gas and Electric removed: had $140 million of remaining regulatory authority to issue added: up to $800 million of long-term removed: debt. added: debt through 2029 and up to $250 million of short-term debt, from October 1, 2026. MGE Energy can also receive about $168 million when it settles its forward share sales, which it can do through January 2028. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov removed: 5, 2026 (estimate): added: 4, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Higher year-to-date earnings from the growing rate base pass; lower earnings without a weather or one-time cause fail. added: Outcome: Net income for the first nine months of 2026 rose to $138.2 million, or $3.70 per diluted share, from $112.6 million, or $3.08, with a larger rate base and investment gains. Dec 2026 (estimate): 2027 Fuel Cost Plan decision. Pending. Watch: Approval of the 2027 Fuel Cost Plan by the end of 2026 passes; a delay or a large disallowance fails. added: Feb 4, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: full year and 2027 rates. Pending. Watch: Higher 2026 earnings and the 2027 rate increases in effect as the settlement says pass; lower earnings without a weather or one-time cause fail.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 4, 2026: MGE Energy reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $56.4 million, or $1.48 per diluted share, up from $1.22 a year earlier. Electric earnings rose $11.6 million because renewable projects grew the rate base, and AFUDC equity on projects under construction rose $3.3 million. Investment gains added about $2.2 million more than a year earlier. For the first nine months, diluted EPS was $3.70, up from $3.08. Oct 1, 2026: MGE Energy and Madison Gas and Electric amended their credit agreements and extended them to October 1, 2031. One of the Madison Gas and Electric agreements with JPMorgan Chase increased from $90 million to $210 million. Aug 21, 2026: MGE Energy increased its quarterly dividend by 7.0% to $0.5083 per share. This was its 51st year in a row of dividend increases. Aug 5, 2026: MGE Energy reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $33.4 million, or $0.89 per share, compared with $0.72 a year earlier. Electric earnings rose $3.0 million because of a higher rate base from new renewable projects, and investment gains of about $3.9 million also helped. May 6, 2026: MGE Energy agreed to sell 3,300,331 shares in a public offering. It sold 990,099 shares directly, for net proceeds of about $72.2 million, and the other 2,310,232 shares were sold under forward sale agreements, which it settles later.