- Company name
- Mitsui & Co.
- Sector
- Trading company
- About
- Mitsui & Co. is one of the large general trading companies (sogo shosha) of Japan. It trades and invests in many industries through seven segments: Mineral & Metal Resources, Iron & Steel Products, Energy, Mobility, Digital & Infrastructure, Chemicals, Wellness Ecosystem, and Innovation & Corporate Development. It owns interests in iron ore mines in Western Australia with BHP, in LNG and oil projects and in power plants, and it owns about 20.3% of Penske Automotive Group. In the six months to September 30, 2026, revenue was ¥8,322.0 billion and profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥574.9 billion. The company reports under IFRS, and its fiscal year ends on March 31. Its shares trade in Tokyo, and its ADRs trade over the counter in the United States. One ADR represents 20 common shares. Kenichi Hori is its president and chief executive officer.
- Thesis
- The market prices Mitsui close to the AI estimate. Investors pay for its strong cash flow, rising dividends and buybacks, but they doubt that profit can stay high, because a large part comes from iron ore, oil, LNG and one-time gains. Profit for the six months to September 30, 2026 rose 35.7% to ¥574.9 billion, and the company raised its forecast for the year to March 2027 to ¥1,050.0 billion from ¥920.0 billion. The new forecast assumes a crude oil price (JCC) of $112 per barrel for the year, against $84 in the original plan. For the stock to keep pace with the AI estimate, three things must be true. Profit must stay near ¥1,050.0 billion as energy prices change, so that the target of the Medium-term Management Plan 2029, profit of ¥1.1 trillion and an ROE of 12% for the year to March 2029, stays within reach. Core operating cash flow must reach the forecast of ¥1,120.0 billion. The company must finish the share buyback of up to ¥200 billion by January 29, 2027 and pay the planned dividend of ¥140 per share. The nine-month results, expected in early February 2027, give the next test, and the full-year results in May 2027 give the one after it. If commodity prices fall or the yen gets stronger, profit and the stock can fall.
- Valuation
- The intrinsic value for Mitsui & Co. is an AI estimate from November 10, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Mitsui's filings and presentations. The method is a multiple of earnings per share for the year to March 31, 2028. The flash report for the six months ended September 30, 2026 (November 4, 2026) gives profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥574.9 billion, up 35.7%, and a revised forecast of ¥1,050.0 billion and basic EPS of ¥372.39 for the year to March 31, 2027. It gives 2,864,666,576 shares issued and 37,463,664 treasury shares at September 30, 2026, equity attributable to owners of the parent of ¥8,990.5 billion and net interest-bearing debt of ¥4,242.0 billion. The forecast assumes ¥155 per U.S. dollar and crude oil (JCC) at $110 per barrel for the second half. The presentation of the Medium-term Management Plan 2029 (May 2026) targets profit of ¥1.1 trillion and an ROE of 12% for the year to March 2029. Mitsui's investor page states that one ADR represents 20 common shares, and the ADR price of $600.03 and the Tokyo price of ¥4,620 on November 6, 2026 are close to this ratio. EPS already includes the interest on debt, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. The estimate assumes that the Penske Automotive purchase neither adds nor removes value per share. It uses an exchange rate of ¥158.29 per U.S. dollar, the market rate on November 9, 2026, as an assumption. The EPS and the multiples in each case are assumptions. The low case assumes EPS of ¥340 for the year to March 2028, because commodity prices fall and one-time gains do not repeat, at 10 times. It gives ¥3,400 per share and $429.59 per ADR. The base case assumes ¥385, near the plan target with fewer shares after buybacks, at 12.5 times. It gives ¥4,812.50 per share and $608.06 per ADR. The high case assumes ¥425, with high energy prices and growth from new projects, at 14 times. It gives ¥5,950 per share and $751.78 per ADR. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is ¥4,743.75 per share and $599.37 per ADR. The value moves with the yen. Cost advantage and intangible assets are the main sources of the advantage. Its iron ore interests in Western Australia with BHP are cost-competitive mines, and its long relationships and global network help it find and run large projects with partners. But much of the profit follows commodity prices, ROE was 10.2% in the year to March 2026, and other trading companies compete for the same projects. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.
As of 2026-11-10.
- Risks
- A large part of profit comes from iron ore, coal, oil and LNG. Mineral & Metal Resources and Energy gave ¥324.6 billion of the ¥511.6 billion of core operating cash flow in the first half of the year to March 2027. Lower commodity prices can cut profit quickly.
The company reports in yen, and the ADR price is in U.S. dollars. The forecast assumes ¥155 per U.S. dollar for the second half. A stronger yen lowers profit in yen, and a weaker yen lowers the dollar value of each ADR.
Gains on securities and other investments were ¥118.6 billion in the first half. Such gains do not come every year, and large purchases such as the Penske Automotive deal can earn low returns.
The plan assumes that the situation in the Middle East becomes normal by the quarter to September 2026. Conflicts can disrupt energy projects, methanol production and trade.
- Balance sheet
- Mitsui funds its investments mainly with long-term loans and bonds. At September 30, 2026, short-term debt was ¥178.2 billion, the current portion of long-term debt was ¥503.1 billion and other long-term debt was ¥5,070.7 billion. Cash and cash equivalents were ¥957.3 billion. Net interest-bearing debt, without lease liabilities, was ¥4,242.0 billion, and the net debt-to-equity ratio was 0.47 times. Equity attributable to owners of the parent was ¥8,990.5 billion, and total assets were ¥20,539.7 billion. Core operating cash flow was ¥511.6 billion in the six months. The company spent about ¥42.1 billion on buybacks from August 5 to September 30, 2026, and it plans a dividend of ¥140 per share for the year to March 2027. There were 2,827,202,912 shares outside treasury at September 30, 2026.
As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026: First-half results for the year to March 2027. Passed. Watch: Profit on track for the forecast of ¥920.0 billion and a kept dividend pass; a lower forecast fails. Outcome: Profit rose 35.7% to ¥574.9 billion, and the company raised its full-year forecast to ¥1,050.0 billion.
Feb 3, 2027 (estimate): Nine-month results to December 2026. Pending. Watch: Profit on track for ¥1,050.0 billion and a completed buyback of up to ¥200 billion pass; a lower forecast fails.
May 2027 (estimate): Full-year results for the year to March 2027. Pending. Watch: Profit of ¥1,050.0 billion or more, core operating cash flow of ¥1,120.0 billion or more and a dividend of ¥140 pass; lower profit or a smaller dividend fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-11-04: Mitsui reported results for the six months ended September 30, 2026. Profit attributable to owners of the parent rose 35.7% to ¥574.9 billion, and core operating cash flow rose to ¥511.6 billion from ¥448.5 billion. Gains on securities and other investments rose to ¥118.6 billion, mainly from the CIM Group real estate business and a Brazilian railway business that stopped being a subsidiary. The company raised its full-year profit forecast to ¥1,050.0 billion from ¥920.0 billion and its core operating cash flow forecast to ¥1,120.0 billion. It kept the dividend forecast of ¥140 per share, with an interim dividend of ¥70.
2026-11-02: Mitsui said that it had bought back 16,965,100 shares for ¥85.0 billion from August 5 to October 31, 2026, under its program of up to ¥200 billion.
2026-10-15: Mitsui and Penske Corporation agreed to buy all free-float shares of Penske Automotive Group for $212 per share, about $3.9 billion in total. Mitsui committed up to $1.6 billion of equity. Its share of Penske Automotive will rise from about 20.3% to about 36%, and the deal is expected to close in the quarter to March 2027.
2026-08-04: Mitsui announced a share buyback of up to ¥200 billion, or up to 60 million shares, from August 5, 2026 to January 29, 2027, and it will cancel the shares on February 5, 2027. It also set a policy to return more than 50% of core operating cash flow to shareholders over the three years to March 2029.
2026-07-16: Mitsui, BHP and Itochu made the final investment decision for the Ministers North iron ore deposit in Western Australia. Mitsui holds 7%. First ore is expected in the second half of 2028, and production is expected to reach about 20 million tonnes a year.
2026-05-01: Mitsui reported profit of ¥834.0 billion for the year ended March 31, 2026, down from ¥900.3 billion, and an ROE of 10.2%. The dividend was ¥115 per share. In its Medium-term Management Plan 2029, it targets core operating cash flow of ¥1.2 trillion, profit of ¥1.1 trillion and an ROE of 12% for the year to March 2029, with a dividend of at least ¥140 per share each year.