MOS changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $18.82 → $18.42(−2.1%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 3, 2026 → Feb 3, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices Mosaic for high sulfur and ammonia costs that make phosphate production unprofitable. Sulfur cost removed: $522 added: an average of $715 per long ton in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, and the removed: Q3 sulfur contracts settled at $705. The Phosphate segment had a gross margin of minus removed: $4 added: $105 per removed: tonne in Q2 2026, and added: tonne. Mosaic cut production: added: since July 2026, Faustina is idle and Bartow runs at 40% of its target removed: rate. added: rate, and Mosaic added curtailments at the South Fort Meade and Miski Mayo mines for Q4 2026. Brazil also idles its commodity fertilizer production. Mosaic had a net loss of removed: $531 added: $603 million in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026, with $442 million of charges for the Araxá and Patrocínio decisions in Q1. Adjusted EBITDA fell to removed: $407 added: $324 million in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026 from removed: $566 added: $806 million a year earlier. Potash is the stable part, with removed: $278 added: $284 million of adjusted EBITDA in removed: Q2. added: Q3, but poor ore grades at Esterhazy cut its 2026 production outlook to 8.6 million tonnes. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Sulfur and ammonia costs must fall, which Mosaic believes is temporary, so that phosphate plants can return to full rates. added: The Q4 2026 sulfur contract settled lower, at $615 per long ton. Phosphate prices must stay high while global supply stays tight. Potash added: ore grades must removed: produce about added: recover so that production returns to more than 9 million tonnes removed: in 2026 added: a year at lower unit costs. The removed: Q3 2026 report on November 3, 2026 shows the effect of the curtailments and the higher sulfur cost. The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 shows whether added: cash flow improves and production removed: restarts. added: restarts, and the Q1 2027 report shows whether the lower sulfur cost lifts phosphate margins. If raw material costs return to normal, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is a long period of high sulfur costs, which Mosaic cannot control.
- Risks
- Sulfur and ammonia are the main raw materials for phosphate fertilizer. removed: The Q3 2026 sulfur price of $705 added: Sulfur averaged $715 per long ton added: in Q3 2026, and the Q4 2026 contract is removed: much higher than added: $615, still above the $522 of Q2. added: Mosaic expects lower Phosphate margins in Q4 2026 because costly raw materials flow through inventory. If these costs stay high, phosphate plants stay curtailed and the Phosphate segment keeps losing money. Fertilizer prices move with crop prices, farmer income and government policy in China and India. A fall in phosphate or potash prices reduces earnings quickly. In Brazil, Mosaic Fertilizantes had lower sales volumes, higher unit costs and charges of about $482 million for the Araxá and Patrocínio decisions in the first half of 2026. added: Its adjusted EBITDA fell to $41 million in Q3 2026 from $241 million a year earlier, and Mosaic expects removed: the segment's Q3 added: Q4 2026 removed: adjusted EBITDA to be lower than removed: in Q2. added: Q3. Poor ore grades at the Esterhazy potash mine cut Mosaic's 2026 potash production outlook to 8.6 million tonnes. Mosaic says that the low grades are temporary. If they last, Potash, the profitable segment, earns less. Free cash flow was added: about zero in Q3 2026, after minus $153 million in removed: Q2 2026. added: Q2. Debt removed: rose to $5.86 added: was $5.91 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. If cash flow does not improve in removed: the second half of added: Q4 2026 as the company expects, debt can stay high.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $294M added: $273M Debt: $5.9B Net debt: $5.6B Undrawn credit line: removed: $2.0B, added: $2.5B, to May 2030 Debt due within 12 months: removed: $1.1B added: $580M Mosaic funds its operations with senior notes, commercial paper and bank loans. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, total debt was removed: $5.86 added: $5.91 billion: short-term debt of removed: $1.02 billion, which includes $519.2 million of commercial paper, added: $511.6 million, current maturities of removed: $66.7 added: $68.7 million and long-term debt of removed: $4.77 added: $5.33 billion. Cash was removed: $294 added: $272.6 million. In August 2026, Mosaic sold $2.0 billion of new notes due 2031, 2034 and 2036 and used the money to buy back notes due 2027 to 2029 in tender offers. It then redeemed the rest of the 2027 and 2028 notes with cash. removed: This moved most added: Mosaic says that it refinanced all long-term debt maturities removed: to 2031 and later. added: through 2028. In Q3 2026, it cut short-term debt by $512 million. The $2.5 billion revolving credit facility runs to May 2030 and backs the commercial paper program, and removed: $2.0 billion added: Mosaic said on November 3, 2026, that all of it was removed: available at June 30, added: available. Mosaic expects net interest expense of $240 million to $260 million in 2026. added: Free cash flow was about $2 million in Q3 2026. Mosaic says that it targets debt ratios in line with investment grade metrics. The figures leave out EBITDA and interest cover because the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026 had large charges and an operating loss. The Ma'aden shares are a further source of cash. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 3, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: phosphate margins and cash flow. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: Positive free cash flow and Phosphate adjusted EBITDA near the $128 million of Q2 2026 pass; a larger Phosphate loss or new cuts to production fail. added: Outcome: Free cash flow was only $2 million, Phosphate adjusted EBITDA fell to $49 million, the Phosphate operating loss grew to $194 million, and Mosaic added curtailments at South Fort Meade and Miski Mayo. Feb added: 3, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: production restart. Pending. Watch: Lower sulfur costs and a plan to restart curtailed phosphate production pass; continued curtailments into 2027 fail. added: May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 earnings: phosphate margins after cheaper sulfur. Pending. Watch: A positive Phosphate gross margin per tonne and potash production back near a 9 million tonne yearly rate pass; another negative Phosphate margin fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 3, 2026: Mosaic reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $3.1 billion, and the net loss was $72 million, or $0.23 per share. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $324 million from $806 million a year earlier, and Phosphate adjusted EBITDA fell to $49 million. Sulfur averaged $715 per long ton, and the Phosphate gross margin was minus $105 per tonne. Free cash flow was about zero. Mosaic cut its 2026 potash production outlook to 8.6 million tonnes because of low ore grades at Esterhazy, and it added phosphate curtailments for Q4 2026. The Q4 2026 sulfur contract settled at $615 per long ton. Mosaic targets capital spending below $1 billion in 2027. Sep 23, 2026: Mosaic said that Karen Swager, Executive Vice President of Operations, will retire. Walter Precourt III becomes Executive Vice President of Operations on December 1, 2026. Aug 28, 2026: Mosaic issued notices to redeem with cash on hand all remaining 4.050% notes due 2027 ($304.9 million), 5.375% notes due 2028 ($124.1 million) and 7.30% debentures due 2028 ($108.2 million). The 2027 notes were redeemed on September 28, 2026. Aug 17, 2026: Mosaic sold $2.0 billion of new senior notes: $1.0 billion due 2031 at 5.350%, $500 million due 2034 at 5.650% and $500 million due 2036 at 5.900%. It used the money for tender offers for its notes due 2027, 2028 and 2029, which ended on August 14, 2026. Aug 4, 2026: Mosaic reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $2.8 billion, and the net loss was $273 million, or $0.86 per share, after $351 million of notable items, including a $162 million fall in the value of its Ma'aden shares. Adjusted EBITDA was $407 million and adjusted EPS was $0.13. Mosaic cut its 2026 capital spending plan to $1.2 billion. It completed the sale of the Carlsbad potash mine in April. Because of high sulfur and ammonia costs, it partly curtailed phosphate production in May and added more curtailments in early July: Faustina is idle and Bartow runs at 40% of its target rate. Jun 10, 2026: Mosaic signed a $1.0 billion delayed draw term loan, with a 364-day tranche of $500 million and a three-year tranche of $500 million, to refinance commercial paper.