MRVL changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $196.40 → $168.80(−14.1%)
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market still prices Marvell's custom chip business as unpredictable and unproven. Revenue depends on a small number of big customer programs starting up. Growth in this business has swung sharply before, which makes investors cautious about counting on the pace management now guides. At its Investor Day on October 6, 2026, management raised its targets. It now guides fiscal 2028 revenue to about $20 billion. It expects custom chip revenue to more than double in fiscal 2028 and then to more than triple in fiscal 2029, to more than $12 billion. It also set a path to $70 billion to $90 billion of revenue in fiscal 2031. These are targets, not results. For the gap to close, the custom programs must ramp up on schedule, including the added Google programs that bring more revenue from fiscal 2029 onward. The 2-nanometer optical technology that Marvell demonstrated in September 2026 must also turn into design wins and shipments. The next checkpoint is the Q3 fiscal 2027 removed: report, expected near added: report on December 1, 2026, and the fiscal 2028 outlook follows near March 2027. If these programs ramp up as planned over the next three to five quarters, Marvell's growth can catch up to faster-growing peers, and the gap can close. If a large customer moves work in-house or to a rival like Broadcom, the gap could persist.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 6, 2026: Investor Day: custom silicon roadmap. Passed. Watch: Clear multi-year custom revenue targets with named program ramps pass; vague targets or a lower fiscal 2028 outlook fail. Outcome: Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion and its fiscal 2029 custom revenue outlook to more than $12 billion. Dec 1, removed: 2026 (estimate): added: 2026: Q3 fiscal 2027 results against $3.15 billion guidance. Pending. Watch: Revenue at or above $3.15 billion and a held fiscal 2027 outlook of about $12 billion pass; a miss or a lower outlook fails. Mar 2027 (estimate): Q4 fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 outlook. Pending. Watch: A confirmed fiscal 2028 revenue outlook of about $20 billion with custom revenue more than doubling passes; a cut or a lost program fails. 2028 (estimate): Lumentum purchase: approvals and closing. Pending. Watch: Approval by the stockholders of both companies and by regulators and a closing in the first half of 2028 pass; a block by regulators or a vote against the deal fails.
- Recent events
- Nov 2, 2026: Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum, a maker of lasers, optical transceivers and optical circuit switches, in an all-stock deal. Each Lumentum share becomes 4.500 Marvell shares, which gives Lumentum an enterprise value of about $115 billion, and Lumentum holders will own about 33% of the combined company. Marvell expects more than $1 billion of yearly run-rate cost savings and a higher non-GAAP EPS in the first year after the closing. The closing is expected in the first half of 2028 and needs the approval of the stockholders of both companies and of regulators. Marvell must pay Lumentum $3.2 billion if the deal fails for certain regulatory reasons. Nov 2, 2026: Marvell said that its preliminary revenue for Q3 fiscal 2027 agrees with the midpoint of its guidance of $3.15 billion, and it narrowed the range to plus or minus 2%, from plus or minus 5%. The complete results come later. Oct added: 22, 2026: Marvell replaced its $1.5 billion revolving credit facility, which was due in June 2030, with a new revolving credit facility of up to $3 billion. The new facility runs for five years, and Marvell can increase it by up to $2 billion. No loans were outstanding under it on October 22, 2026. Oct 13, 2026: Marvell announced two new connectivity chips for AI data centers. The Alaska E retimer carries 3.2 terabits per second over 16 lanes of 224G signals. The second-generation Alaska A digital signal processor lets 1.6T copper cables reach more than six meters, about double the first generation. Both chips are sampling to customers. Marvell gave no production dates. Oct 6, 2026: At its Investor Day, Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion, from about $18 billion. It raised its fiscal 2029 custom chip revenue outlook to more than $12 billion, from more than $10 billion. Management also set a path to $70 billion to $90 billion of annual revenue by fiscal 2031. Sep 21, 2026: At the ECOC 2026 optical-networking conference in Málaga, Spain, Marvell demonstrated 2-nanometer optical interconnect technology for AI data centers. The demonstrations included 800G and 1.6T pluggable optics and a 102.4-terabit co-packaged optics platform. Marvell gave no shipment dates. Sep 17, 2026: Marvell and GlobalFoundries expanded their multi-year deal for silicon germanium chip capacity at GlobalFoundries' plant in Burlington, Vermont. Marvell will use it for optical products such as pluggable optics and co-packaged optics. Aug 27, 2026: Marvell reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue reached a company record of $2.74 billion, up 37% from a year earlier. Management raised the fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to about $12 billion, from about $11.5 billion, and the fiscal 2028 outlook to about $18 billion, from about $16.5 billion. It guided Q3 revenue to $3.15 billion, plus or minus 5%. Aug 19, 2026: Marvell disclosed an expanded custom chip agreement with Google. Google received a warrant for up to 59.0 million Marvell shares at $206.58 per share. Most of these shares vest only as Google buys custom products, one part for each $500 million of revenue, through fiscal 2033. Management said the added programs bring more revenue from fiscal 2029 onward.