- Price
- $71.92 → $70.50(−2.0%)
- Discount
- -2.0% → 0.0%(+2.0 pts)
- LSEG rating
- 2.00 → 1.89(−0.11)
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Marex above the AI estimate, because it expects Marex to keep most of its record profit of 2026. In the first half of 2026, very high commodity volatility made market making and trading unusually profitable. But Q2 2026 was also a record quarter, and clearing balances, prime services and acquisitions keep adding fee and interest income. The AI estimate gives equal weight to two cases: profit goes back to the 2025 level plus growth, or the first-half 2026 level is the new base. Trust issues hold the price back. A short seller accused Marex of accounting manipulation in August 2025, and the 2025 annual report showed two material weaknesses in internal control. Falling interest rates also reduce the interest Marex earns on client cash. For the price to hold, adjusted profit must keep growing in quarters with normal volatility, and there must be no large new client default. The 2026 annual report must also show that the control weaknesses are fixed. If profit falls back toward the 2025 level when volatility eases, the price can fall to the AI estimate or below. The evidence arrives with the Q3 2026 results, expected in on November 5, 2026, the closing of the Bright Point and Brainchild acquisitions in late 2026 or early 2027, and the 2026 annual report in March 2027. Over the next three to five quarters, these reports show which of the two cases is correct.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results with normal volatility. Pending. Watch: Adjusted profit before tax up 10% or more from Q3 2025 with no large client loss passes; a fall in profit as volatility eases fails.
Q1 2027 (estimate): Bright Point and Brainchild acquisitions close. Pending. Watch: Both deals close by early 2027 and add client balances without write-downs passes; a delay, a block or a write-down fails.
Mar 2027 (estimate): 2026 annual report and internal control opinion. Pending. Watch: Management and the auditor report that both material weaknesses are fixed passes; any remaining weakness or a restatement fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-13: Marex said it will report Q3 2026 results on November 5, 2026, before the US market opens.
2026-10-07: Marex said that Robert Pickering left the Group Board at the end of his three-year term as Chair. He was Chair from October 2023. John Pietrowicz became Chair. He joined the board in April 2024 and was CFO of CME Group from 2014 to 2023.
2026-09-09: Marex paid a quarterly dividend of $0.16 per share for Q2 2026, up from $0.15 for Q4 2025.
2026-08-21: Marex agreed to pay $950,000 to settle a US class action that repeated the claims of the short seller NINGI Research. The plaintiffs asked the court for preliminary approval. The settlement still needs final court approval.
2026-08-12: Marex reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $695.8 million, up 39%. Adjusted profit before tax was $165.9 million, up 56%. On the results call, the CEO said that he is confident that Marex can grow at least in line with the top of its 10% to 20% target range for profit growth. From Q2 2026, adjusted earnings per share deduct the coupon on the new hybrid notes.
2026-08-10: Marex agreed to buy Brainchild Capital Investments, a Dutch firm that clears and executes power and gas trades. Completion is expected in late 2026 or early 2027. On the same day, the two largest owners from before the listing filed reports that they held no Marex shares at June 30, 2026.
2026-08-03: Marex completed its purchase of Webb Traders, a European equity derivatives market maker, for an initial payment of EUR 69.9 million.
2026-07-09: Marex agreed to buy Bright Point International, a Singapore clearing firm with about $800 million of client balances. Completion is expected in late 2026 or early 2027.
2026-07-01: Marex moved its parent company from England and Wales to Bermuda. The group is no longer under the UK FCA's group capital rules. Its regulated subsidiaries stay under their own regulators.
2026-06-09: Marex issued $500 million of perpetual hybrid notes at 7.70%. By June 11, it bought back $94.7 million of its $100 million of 13.25% AT1 notes at 109% of their face value.
2026-05-06: Marex reported Q1 2026 results. Adjusted profit before tax was $152.7 million, up 59%. A natural gas client default in January caused a $33.9 million loss in Clearing.
2026-03-25: Marex filed its 2025 annual report. Management and the auditor reported two material weaknesses in internal control, in IT access and in balance sheet reconciliations.