This is an old version of NBIS from yesterday (Nov 12, 2026).See the latest version
NBIS
- Price
- $154.69
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 12, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- No
- Company name
- Nebius Group
- Sector
- AI cloud infrastructure
- About
- Nebius Group N.V. is an Amsterdam company that sells AI cloud services: GPU capacity, a software platform and a managed inference service (Token Factory) for companies that train and run AI models. Revenue was $582.3 million in Q2 2026, up 454% from $105.1 million, and the AI cloud business made about 98% of it. Annualized run-rate revenue was $3.0 billion at the end of June 2026. The group also owns Avride (autonomous vehicles and delivery robots) and TripleTen (education), and holds equity stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka. Nebius expects 5 gigawatts (GW) of contracted power by the end of 2026 and says that it has more than $40 billion of customer commitments. Arkady Volozh is founder and Chief Executive Officer. Nebius is a foreign private issuer: it files a Form 20-F each year and furnishes its results on Form 6-K. The pick is the Class A share on NASDAQ (NBIS), in US dollars.
- Thesis
- The market prices Nebius as a young AI cloud company that must borrow a very large amount to build the capacity it has already sold. Revenue grew 454% in Q2 2026 and the AI cloud business had an adjusted EBITDA margin of 49.7%. But capital spending was about $5.7 billion in the quarter, debt was $8.5 billion at June 30, 2026, and Nebius then sold $5.75 billion of convertible notes in August and signed a $3.5 billion bridge loan in October that matures in October 2027. Customers pay in advance for much of the capacity: deferred revenue was $6.0 billion at June 30, and Nebius expects more than $9 billion of prepayments in 2026. For the price to rise, Nebius must turn its contracts into revenue as fast as it plans, with year-end 2026 annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion, keep the prices of new deals at the current level, and pay for the build-out without selling many more shares. The Q3 2026 report is the next test, and the Q4 report follows in early 2027. The gap can close only over several years of building and filling capacity.
- Risks
- Funding. Nebius spends far more than it earns: capital spending was about $5.7 billion in Q2 2026. It relies on prepayments, convertible notes, secured loans and share sales. A closed debt market or a fall in the share price would slow the build-out or force more dilution. Execution. Nebius must find power, sites, GPUs and staff for more than 1 GW of new capacity each year from 2027. Late supply or late construction would delay the revenue that its contracts promise. Customers and prices. Large contracts with a few customers, among them Microsoft and Meta, drive much of the growth. If AI spending slows or GPU prices fall, Nebius would have empty capacity and a heavy debt cost. Debt is rising. Debt was $8,545.7 million at June 30, 2026 and grew by about $5.7 billion after that through a secured facility and new notes, net of the exchange. Nebius then signed a $3.5 billion bridge loan that matures in October 2027. Dilution. Nebius sold 12.7 million Class A shares under its at-the-market program in H1 2026, exchanged old convertible notes for about 15.8 million shares in August, and its share-based pay was $137.8 million in the first half.
- Balance sheet
- At June 30, 2026, Nebius had cash of $8,042.1 million and debt of $8,545.7 million, of which $46.7 million was current. Deferred revenue was $5,975.2 million, mostly customer prepayments, and non-current operating lease liabilities were $1,510.4 million. Equity attributable to Nebius was $10,339.5 million. Net cash from operating activities was $4,504.1 million in the first six months of 2026 and purchases of property and equipment were $8,130.3 million. There were 271,855,218 shares outstanding. After that date, Nebius took a secured facility of about $775 million in July, sold $5.75 billion of convertible notes in August and signed a $3.5 billion bridge loan in October. All amounts are in US dollars. As of Jun 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 12, 2026: Q3 2026 results: revenue and annualized run-rate revenue. Pending. Watch: Annualized run-rate revenue above $3.0 billion and a reaffirmed 2026 guidance passes; a cut to the guidance fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: year-end annualized run-rate revenue. Pending. Watch: Year-end annualized run-rate revenue of $7 billion or more passes; less fails.
- Recent events
- Oct 22, 2026: Nebius said that on October 17, 2026 it signed a $3.5 billion senior secured bridge term loan with Citibank. It bears interest at Term SOFR plus a margin that starts at 2.75% and rises to 3.50%, and it matures on October 16, 2027. Oct 1, 2026: Nebius bought Inferize, a company whose technology cuts the time that AI models need to load and scale in production. Its team and technology joined Token Factory. Sep 8, 2026: Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. After an integration period, Nebius compute and inference will be available to Palantir customers, and the two companies will work to bring new capacity online faster. Aug 24, 2026: Nebius closed an offering of $5.75 billion of convertible senior notes: $3.45 billion of 0.50% notes due 2030 and $2.3 billion of 4.50% notes due 2034. It also agreed to exchange $400 million of its 2029 notes and $400 million of its 2031 notes for about 15.8 million Class A shares. Aug 12, 2026: Nebius reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $582.3 million, up 454%, and adjusted EBITDA was $236.2 million. Four large AI cloud deals averaged more than $1 billion each, and Nebius raised its target for contracted power at the end of 2026 to 5 GW. It reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.