- Company name
- NiSource
- Sector
- Gas & electric utilities
- About
- NiSource is a fully regulated utility holding company. It serves about 3.3 million natural gas customers and 500,000 electric customers in six states under the Columbia Gas and NIPSCO brands. Columbia Gas distributes gas in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky and Maryland. NIPSCO serves gas and electric customers in northern Indiana. NiSource earns returns on the money it invests in pipes, wires and power plants, as state regulators allow. Through NIPSCO Generation (GenCo), a new unit in which Blackstone Infrastructure holds a minority interest, NiSource builds power plants to serve large data center customers. NIPSCO has special contracts with Amazon Data Services and Alphabet to supply power to their data centers, and in October 2026 it signed a contract with Microsoft that still needs regulatory approval.
- Thesis
- The market prices NiSource for the cost of a large new investment program and the risk of its data center strategy. In October 2026, NiSource extended its capital plan to $40.0 billion for 2027 to 2033, which includes $8.0 billion for data centers. Net interest expense rose to $601 million in the first nine months of 2026 from $452 million a year earlier, and debt rose to $18.3 billion at September 30, 2026. After a change to its construction plans, GenCo now expects the gas plant for Amazon to start operation in 2030. For the gap to close, three things must be true. NiSource must reach the upper half of its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07 and its new 2027 guidance of $2.22 to $2.30, on the way to its target of 10% to 11% yearly growth from 2027 to 2033. GenCo must build the plants for Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft on time and on budget, regulators must approve the Microsoft contract, and the contracts must protect existing customers from the costs, as the company says they do. NiSource must keep its investment grade credit ratings while it funds the plan. The 2026 results in early 2027 show whether the company met its guidance. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which raise the cost of the investment plan and make utility shares less attractive.
- Risks
- The data center strategy depends on a few large customers. If Amazon or Alphabet ends a contract or reduces its capacity, or if new plants cost more than planned, NiSource can earn less on its GenCo investments.
Net interest expense rose 33% in the first nine months of 2026. The large capital plan needs new debt and equity. Higher rates increase costs and can make it harder to keep investment grade ratings.
State regulators set rates and returns in six states. A rate case with a lower return or a delay in cost recovery reduces earnings growth.
Gas utilities can have pipeline safety incidents, and weather affects gas demand. Weather affects gas demand, and severe weather can damage the systems, as it did in 2026.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $58M
Debt: $18.3B
Net debt: $18.2B
Interest cover: 2.3×
Undrawn credit line: $2.5B
Debt due within 12 months: $1.9B
NiSource funds its utilities with senior notes, junior subordinated notes, commercial paper and receivables programs. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $18.26 billion: long-term debt of $16.38 billion, current maturities of $1.10 billion and commercial paper of $780 million. Cash was $58 million. The $2.50 billion revolving credit facility had no borrowings, and net available liquidity was $1.95 billion. The debt to capitalization ratio was 51.3%, below the 70.0% limit of the credit facility. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the first nine months of 2026. NiSource also sells shares through an at-the-market program, which had about $1.15 billion of capacity left at September 30, 2026. Blackstone Infrastructure and other minority holders fund part of NIPSCO and GenCo with equity contributions. The new capital plan of $40.0 billion for 2027 to 2033 needs more debt and equity.
As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and data center plan. Passed. Watch: A reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07 and progress on GenCo projects pass; lower guidance or a delay in the data center projects fails. Outcome: NiSource narrowed its 2026 guidance to the upper half of the range, gave 2027 guidance of $2.22 to $2.30 and signed a new data center contract with Microsoft, although the gas plant for Amazon now starts operation in 2030.
Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): 2026 results: EPS guidance met. Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS in the upper half of $2.02 to $2.07 and a reaffirmed 2027 guidance of $2.22 to $2.30 pass; EPS below the range or lower 2027 guidance fails.
- Recent events
- Nov 9, 2026: NiSource sold $600 million of 5.400% notes due 2032. The sale closed on November 9, 2026. NiSource will use the money for capital spending, working capital and to repay debt.
Oct 28, 2026: NiSource reported Q3 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $0.27, up from $0.19, and GAAP EPS was $0.27. It narrowed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to the upper half of $2.02 to $2.07 and gave 2027 guidance of $2.22 to $2.30. It extended its capital plan to $40.0 billion for 2027 to 2033 and raised its yearly adjusted EPS growth target to 10% to 11% for 2027 to 2033. NIPSCO signed a 20-year contract to supply Microsoft's data center, with capacity that rises to 788 MW in 2031. The contract needs approval from the Indiana regulator. NiSource says its data center contracts now bring about $1.75 billion of savings for existing customers.
Oct 15, 2026: NIPSCO Generation signed a tolling agreement with an AGP Group company for a 600 MW / 2,400 MWh battery storage project connected to the MISO grid. The first phase is expected to start by December 1, 2027. GenCo will pay about $2.2 billion over a term of about 20.5 years. The agreement needs regulatory approval and an engineering contract and an interconnection agreement by January 31, 2027.
Aug 18, 2026: NiSource sold $750 million of 6.250% fixed-to-fixed reset rate junior subordinated notes due 2057.
Aug 5, 2026: NiSource reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $0.16, down from $0.22, and GAAP EPS was $0.09. It reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07, the 9% to 10% annual growth target from 2026 to 2033 and the $28.6 billion capital plan for 2026 to 2030. NiSource said that regulators approved NIPSCO's special contracts with Amazon and Alphabet, which bring about $1.4 billion of savings for existing customers.
May 18, 2026: NiSource sold $500 million of 4.750% notes due 2031 and $750 million of 5.300% notes due 2036 to repay existing debt.
Feb 11, 2026: NiSource reported 2025 results and gave 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07. It began to report base plan adjusted EPS, which leaves out data center activities, next to consolidated adjusted EPS.