- Company name
- Natera
- Sector
- Genetic testing and diagnostics
- About
- Natera, Inc. (Natera) runs genetic tests that read cell-free DNA in blood. It sells tests in three areas: oncology, women's health and organ health. Signatera is a personalized blood test for molecular residual disease (MRD) in cancer. Panorama is a prenatal screening test, and Horizon is a carrier screening test. Natera sells through its own sales force and through laboratory partners, and it runs laboratories in Austin, Texas, San Carlos, California and Boulder, Colorado. Revenue was $2,306.1 million in 2025, up 35.9%, and $2,243.4 million in the first nine months of 2026, up 36.7%. In Q3 2026, Natera processed about 1,093,100 tests, of which about 339,500 were oncology tests. On December 4, 2025, it bought Foresight Diagnostics, a maker of MRD tests for lymphoma, for $424.5 million. Natera is based in Austin, Texas, and its shares trade on Nasdaq. Solomon Moshkevich became Chief Executive Officer and President on November 5, 2026.
- Thesis
- Natera trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for its fast growth in cancer testing, even though it has not yet shown steady profit. Revenue grew 34.1% in Q3 2026, and Natera raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion. But it still had a loss from operations of $68.3 million in the quarter, after $107.4 million of stock-based pay. Operating cash flow was positive at $138.9 million in nine months, but capital spending took $124.2 million of it. Three doubts matter. Investors ask how long oncology volume can keep growing near 60% a year. They ask how much of revenue depends on collection estimates that can reverse: changes in estimates added $32.3 million of revenue in Q3, against $55.1 million a year earlier. And the chief executive left on November 5, 2026, which adds change at the top. For the price to hold, three things must be true. Oncology tests, led by Signatera, must keep growing from 339,500 in Q3. Gross margin must stay in the 64% to 66% guided range without help from estimate changes. And operating costs must grow slower than revenue, as in Q3 (up 19.5% against revenue up 34.1%), so that the operating loss turns into profit while stock-based pay, about 14% of revenue, stays flat. The Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance, expected in February 2027, is the next test.
- Valuation
- The intrinsic value for Natera is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Natera's filings. Natera has a net loss, so a multiple of earnings does not fit, and a multiple of revenue ignores costs. The method is a multiple of operating income for 2029, with a path for costs that starts at the 2026 guidance, discounted to today, plus net cash. Operating income is after stock-based compensation, which was $304.3 million in nine months of 2026 and is about 14% of revenue, so the estimate adds no extra share dilution for it. The Q3 2026 release (8-K, November 5, 2026) gives revenue of $794.0 million, a gross margin of 64.7%, a loss from operations of $68.3 million, cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $1,097.2 million, debt of $80.3 million, and 2026 guidance for revenue of $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion, a gross margin of about 64% to 66%, selling, general and administrative costs of $1.225 billion to $1.300 billion and research and development costs of $825 million to $925 million. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives revenue of $2,243.4 million, operating cash flow of $138.9 million, capital spending of $124.2 million, an accumulated deficit of $3.0 billion and income tax expense of $0.3 million for nine months, up to $175.0 million of shares owed for Foresight Diagnostics, and 145,004,521 shares at October 31, 2026. At the guidance midpoints, 2026 revenue is $3,020 million, gross profit is about $1,963 million and operating costs are about $2,138 million, which is an operating loss of about $175 million before the amortization of acquired intangibles. The 2029 figures, the multiples, the discount rate and the share count are assumptions. The estimate discounts 3.14 years, from November 12, 2026 to December 31, 2029, at 10% a year, which is a factor of 0.741. It adds net cash of $1,016.9 million and divides by 147 million shares, which is the 145.0 million outstanding plus about 2 million for options and for the Foresight shares. The multiples apply to operating income before tax, and they allow for tax once profits are large. The low case assumes revenue of $4,470 million in 2029, which is growth of about 14% a year, a gross margin of 65% and operating costs of $2,700 million, so operating income is $205.5 million, at 18 times. It gives $25.57 per share. The base case assumes revenue of $5,300 million, which is growth of about 21% a year, a gross margin of 67% and operating costs of $2,850 million, so operating income is $701.0 million, at 24 times. It gives $91.77 per share. The high case assumes revenue of $6,000 million, which is growth of about 26% a year, a gross margin of 68% and operating costs of $3,050 million, so operating income is $1,030.0 million, at 28 times. It gives $152.36 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $90.37 per share.
As of Nov 12, 2026.
- Risks
- Natera has a loss from operations, $237.6 million in nine months, and stock-based pay of $304.3 million in the same period. Profit depends on costs growing slower than revenue for several years.
Revenue depends on payer coverage, reimbursement and collection estimates. Changes in estimates added $32.3 million of revenue in Q3. Payers can lower rates, withdraw coverage or ask for repayment, and Natera must then reverse revenue.
A new Chief Executive Officer started on November 5, 2026, one day after the previous one resigned. A change at the top can affect plans, sales and staff.
Natera is a party to many legal matters, including patent cases, patient class actions about billing and marketing, a securities class action and the Baylor Genetics class actions. A loss or a large settlement would cost cash.
Natera relies on two main laboratories and on a few suppliers for instruments and materials. A problem at one laboratory or supplier would stop testing. Contractual commitments to suppliers were $240.0 million.
- Balance sheet
- Natera reported cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $1,097.2 million at September 30, 2026, against $1,076.1 million at December 31, 2025. Debt was $80.3 million, including accrued interest, on a UBS line of credit at the 30-day SOFR rate plus 0.50%. Operating cash flow was $138.9 million and capital spending was $124.2 million in nine months. Stock-based compensation was $304.3 million in nine months. The accumulated deficit was $3.0 billion, and stockholders' equity was $1,869.6 million. For the Foresight Diagnostics deal, Natera may owe up to $175.0 million in shares, and it carries a liability of $129.1 million for this. Material contractual commitments were $240.0 million. Natera had 145,004,521 shares outstanding at October 31, 2026.
As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: revenue and guidance. Passed. Watch: Revenue growth above 30% with a raise to 2026 revenue guidance passes; slower growth or a cut fails. Outcome: Revenue grew 34.1% to $794.0 million and 2026 revenue guidance rose by $140 million at the midpoint.
Feb 25, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: 2027 guidance and gross margin. Pending. Watch: 2027 revenue guidance that grows 20% or more with a gross margin of 64% or more passes; slower growth or a lower margin fails.
May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: operating loss. Pending. Watch: A loss from operations smaller than the $68.3 million of Q3 2026 with revenue growth of 25% or more passes; a larger loss fails.
- Recent events
- Nov 5, 2026: Natera reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $794.0 million, up 34.1%, and gross margin was 64.7%. Tests processed rose 22.3% to about 1,093,100, and oncology tests rose 60.9% to about 339,500. Clinical MRD units grew by 32,700 from Q2. The loss from operations was $68.3 million and the net loss was $59.9 million, or $0.42 per share. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $1,097.2 million.
Nov 5, 2026: Natera raised its 2026 revenue guidance by $140 million at the midpoint, to $3.005 billion to $3.035 billion. It expects a gross margin of about 64% to 66%, selling, general and administrative costs of $1.225 billion to $1.300 billion, research and development costs of $825 million to $925 million, and positive cash flow.
Nov 5, 2026: Natera's Q3 10-Q describes two class actions filed in August 2026 about a cybersecurity incident at Baylor Genetics in June 2026, which affected patients whose tests were ordered through Natera. The 10-Q also says that a court entered judgment in March 2026 on a $57.0 million jury verdict in the Ravgen patent case, and that Natera has appealed.
Nov 4, 2026: Steve Chapman resigned as Chief Executive Officer, President and director, effective November 5, 2026. The board appointed Solomon Moshkevich as Chief Executive Officer and President and as a director from the same day. Natera agreed a transition and consulting contract with Mr. Chapman.
Nov 2, 2026: Natera acquired one of its strategic partners. The purchase price is up to $30.0 million, including up to $5.0 million of milestone payments. The 10-Q does not name the partner, and the accounting for the deal was not complete.
Aug 6, 2026: Natera reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $752.8 million, up 37.7%, gross margin was 64.5% and oncology tests rose 57.2% to about 296,700. Natera raised its 2026 revenue guidance by $100 million at the midpoint, to $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion.
Feb 26, 2026: Natera reported Q4 and full-year 2025 results. Revenue was $2,306.1 million for the year, up 35.9%, gross margin was 64.7%, and cash rose by about $107.6 million.