NWG changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $17.09 → $15.93(−6.8%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Well below intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Oct 30, 2026 → Jan 30, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices NatWest for its dependence on the UK economy and on UK interest rates. Much of its income comes from the margin on UK loans and deposits, so lower Bank of England rates and lower mortgage margins can reduce income. The purchase of Evelyn Partners on June 30, 2026 cut the CET1 ratio by about 1.4 percentage points to 13.2%, reduced tangible net asset value per share to 359p from 400p at March 31, 2026, and moved the next share buyback to the full-year 2026 results. For the gap to close, three things must be true. NatWest must reach its 2026 guidance: total income of about £17.9 billion excluding notable items, costs of about £8.5 billion and a return on tangible equity above 19%. Income from its structural hedge must rise by more than £1.5 billion in 2026 and more than £1.0 billion in 2027, as the bank expects. Evelyn Partners must add income and assets under management without large integration costs. The Q3 2026 results on October 30, 2026 removed: give added: kept the removed: next test. added: outlook, with a return on tangible equity of 20.2% for the first nine months and a CET1 ratio of 13.5%. The full-year 2026 results in removed: February added: early 2027 show the size of the next buyback. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker UK economy, which can raise bad loans and lower loan demand.
- Risks
- NatWest lends almost only in the UK. A recession, higher unemployment or a fall in house prices can increase bad loans. The loan impairment rate was removed: 19 added: 21 basis points in removed: H1 added: the first nine months of 2026, and the bank expects less than 25 basis points for 2026. Lower Bank of England rates and strong competition for mortgages and deposits can reduce the net interest margin. Retail Banking had lower mortgage margins in H1 2026, which hedge income offset. The Evelyn Partners purchase adds a large wealth business. If integration costs are higher, or clients and advisers leave, the expected income may not come. UK banks face regulatory changes and conduct claims. removed: Basel 3.1 rules will increase added: NatWest expects risk-weighted assets removed: by added: of about removed: £10 added: £210 billion on January 1, 2027, removed: by the bank's estimate, added: including Basel 3.1 rules, against £200.5 billion on September 30, 2026, which uses capital.
- Balance sheet
- NatWest funds itself mostly with customer deposits. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, total assets were removed: £745.4 added: £758.7 billion, customer deposits were removed: £448.6 added: £454.3 billion and loans to customers were removed: £435.9 added: £449.0 billion. The loan to deposit ratio, without repos, was 90%. The average liquidity coverage ratio was removed: 140%. added: 137%. Capital is the real limit for a bank. The CET1 ratio was added: 13.5% at September 30, 2026, up from 13.2% at June 30, 2026, against 14.0% at the end of 2025. removed: The purchase of Evelyn Partners decreased the ratio by about 1.4 percentage points. Profit of £3.0 billion recovered part of this decrease. added: Capital generation before distributions was 71 basis points in Q3 2026. Risk-weighted assets were removed: £199.5 added: £200.5 billion. Tangible net asset value per share was removed: 359p. added: 359p, the same as at June 30, 2026. In October 2026, NatWest Group issued $1.0 billion of senior notes due 2032. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 30, 2026: Q3 2026 results: income, impairments and capital. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Income on track for about £17.9 billion in 2026, a loan impairment rate below 25 basis points and a CET1 ratio of 13% or more pass; lower guidance or higher impairments fail. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Income rose 9.6% in the first nine months, the loan impairment rate was 21 basis points, the CET1 ratio rose to 13.5%, and NatWest kept its outlook. Jan 30, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results: share buyback. Pending. Watch: A return on tangible equity above 19% for 2026 and a new share buyback pass; no buyback or a lower return fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 30, 2026: NatWest reported Q3 2026 results. Attributable profit was £1.5 billion, return on tangible equity was 21.6% and earnings per share was 19.3p. Total income rose 3.0% to £4.64 billion. The loan impairment rate was 24 basis points in the quarter and 21 basis points for the first nine months. The CET1 ratio rose to 13.5%. NatWest kept its 2026 outlook and now expects risk-weighted assets of about £210 billion on January 1, 2027, including Basel 3.1. Oct 30, 2026: NatWest said that, after the 2026 annual review, it expects the CET1 part of its Pillar 2A capital requirement to fall to 1.2% from January 1, 2027. Under its share buyback programme of February 2026, it repurchased and cancelled 24.02 million more shares after September 30, 2026. Oct 16, 2026: NatWest Group issued $1.0 billion of 5.908% senior callable fixed-to-fixed reset rate notes due 2032. It will use the money for its general banking business. Jul 31, 2026: NatWest reported H1 2026 results. Attributable profit was £3.0 billion, return on tangible equity was 19.7% and earnings per share rose 23.3% to 38.1p. Total income rose 11.0% to £8.86 billion. The cost:income ratio improved to 46.0%. The CET1 ratio fell to 13.2% after the Evelyn Partners purchase. NatWest raised its 2026 guidance, declared an interim dividend of 12.0p, and said that it will consider share buybacks from its full-year 2026 results. Jun 30, 2026: NatWest completed the purchase of Evelyn Partners, which added £71.7 billion of assets under management and administration. In the same quarter, it completed the sale of Cushon.