NXST changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $164.59 → $185.12(+12.5%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 5, 2026 → Feb 5, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices Nexstar for the lawsuit against its TEGNA purchase and for the debt it took on to pay for it. After the deal closed on March 19, 2026, DIRECTV and several State Attorneys General sued under the antitrust laws. A federal court in California ordered on April 17, 2026 that Nexstar and TEGNA stay separate until the case ends, and the trial is set for July 6, 2027. While the order lasts, Nexstar cannot get the cost savings it expected from the deal. Total debt removed: rose to $11.7 added: was $11.4 billion at removed: June added: September 30, removed: 2026 added: 2026, up from $6.3 billion at the end of 2025, and the total net leverage ratio was removed: 4.22 added: 4.04 times without the synergies. Investors also expect fewer subscribers to pay for traditional TV over time, which reduces distribution fees. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Nexstar must win in court, or the Ninth Circuit must narrow the order, so that it can combine TEGNA and get the savings. It must use its free cash flow, which is usually strongest in election years, to pay down debt. Distribution revenue must hold up as fees rise and streaming TV subscribers grow. The Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026 removed: shows the added: showed record political advertising removed: from the 2026 elections and removed: the debt repayment. added: lower leverage. The Ninth Circuit removed: hearing is expected in Q4 added: hears oral argument on the order on November 17, 2026, and the trial is in July 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next six to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is a loss in court, which can force Nexstar to sell stations or keep TEGNA apart.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $218M added: $446M Debt: removed: $11.7B added: $11.4B Net debt: removed: $11.5B added: $11.0B Net debt / EBITDA: removed: 4.2× added: 4.0× (high) Interest cover: removed: 2.0× added: 2.3× Undrawn credit line: $441M Debt due within 12 months: $556M Nexstar funds its business with secured credit facilities, secured notes and unsecured notes. Total debt, including Mission Broadcasting, removed: rose to $11.74 added: was $11.41 billion at removed: June added: September 30, removed: 2026 added: 2026, up from $6.33 billion at December 31, 2025, because of the TEGNA purchase. removed: It added: Principal was removed: $5.19 added: $11.53 billion: $4.91 billion of secured credit facilities, removed: $3.80 added: $3.83 billion of secured notes, which include TEGNA notes that are removed: being added: now secured, and removed: $2.76 added: $2.79 billion of unsecured notes. removed: Cash added: The current portion was removed: $218 added: $556 million. added: Cash was $446 million, and $441 million of revolving commitments were unused. The first lien net leverage ratio was removed: 3.21 added: 3.03 times against a covenant limit of 4.75 times, and the total net leverage ratio was removed: 4.22 added: 4.04 times. Since Q2 2026, these ratios leave out the TEGNA synergies because of the court order. removed: In April 2026, Nexstar removed: refinanced $1,714 added: repaid $786 million of removed: notes due added: debt in removed: July 2027 with new notes due 2034. added: the first nine months of 2026 and $525 million more of its secured credit facilities after September 30, 2026. Interest cover is income from operations divided by net interest expense for the removed: first half of added: nine months to September 30, 2026. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: political revenue and debt repayment. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Strong political advertising and more debt repayment that lowers the total net leverage ratio below 4.22 times pass; a higher leverage ratio fails. added: Outcome: Political advertising revenue was a record $317 million for a third quarter, Nexstar repaid $350 million of debt, and the total net leverage ratio fell to 4.04 times. Q4 2026 (estimate): Ninth Circuit hearing on the TEGNA injunction. Pending. Watch: A ruling that narrows the injunction or dismisses the State plaintiffs passes; a ruling that keeps the full injunction fails. added: Feb 5, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: free cash flow and leverage. Pending. Watch: More debt repayment from the election-year cash flow and a total net leverage ratio below 4.04 times pass; a higher leverage ratio fails. Jul 6, 2027: Antitrust trial on the TEGNA purchase. Pending. Watch: A ruling for Nexstar, or a settlement that keeps most of TEGNA, passes; an order to undo the deal or to sell many stations fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 5, 2026: Nexstar reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenue was a record $2.13 billion, up 78%, with $765 million from TEGNA, and political advertising revenue was a record $317 million for a third quarter. Net income was $250 million, adjusted EBITDA was $756 million and adjusted free cash flow was $443 million. Nexstar repaid $350 million of debt in the quarter and $525 million more after September 30, 2026. The total net leverage ratio fell to 4.04 times from 4.22 times at June 30, 2026. Nexstar said that the Ninth Circuit will hear oral argument on its appeal of the TEGNA order on November 17, 2026. Aug 6, 2026: The FCC voted to remove the national ownership limit of 39% of US TV households and to review each transaction separately. Nexstar said that the decision is not yet effective and is likely to be challenged in court. Aug 6, 2026: The court in California ruled that its order does not allow current or former Nexstar employees, directors or consultants to serve on the TEGNA board, and told Nexstar to comply at once. TheDesk reported on August 14, 2026 that four of the five TEGNA directors, including Nexstar CEO Perry Sook, left the TEGNA board. Aug 6, 2026: Nexstar reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue was a record $1.99 billion, up 62%, with $697 million of revenue from TEGNA. Net income was $113 million and adjusted EBITDA was $633 million. Adjusted free cash flow was $238 million. Nexstar repaid $409 million of debt and paid $57 million in dividends in the quarter. Jul 31, 2026: Nexstar declared a quarterly dividend of $1.86 per share, paid on August 28, 2026. Jul 9, 2026: The D.C. Circuit rejected all of the challenges to the FCC Media Bureau's order that approved Nexstar's purchase of TEGNA. The antitrust lawsuit in California is separate, and its trial is set for July 6, 2027. Apr 17, 2026: The U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California issued a preliminary injunction in the lawsuit by DIRECTV and several State Attorneys General. Nexstar and TEGNA must stay separate while the case continues. Nexstar appealed to the Ninth Circuit to narrow the order. Apr 2, 2026: Nexstar issued $1,725 million of senior unsecured notes due 2034 to refinance $1,714 million of notes due in July 2027. Mar 19, 2026: Nexstar completed its purchase of TEGNA after it received approvals from the FCC and the Department of Justice. TEGNA shareholders received $22.00 per share in cash.