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ORLY

Current
Price
$89.79
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings
2027-02-03
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
O'Reilly Automotive
Sector
Automotive parts retail
About
O'Reilly Automotive (O'Reilly) is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States. It sells to do-it-yourself customers and to professional service providers, such as repair shops. At September 30, 2026, it had 6,758 stores in 48 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, Mexico and Canada. In 2025, comparable store sales grew for the 33rd year in a row. The O'Reilly family founded the company in 1957. The company did a 15-for-1 stock split on June 10, 2025. The head office is in Springfield, Missouri. Brad Beckham is Chief Executive Officer.
Thesis
O'Reilly trades close to its intrinsic value because investors pay a full price for its steady share gains, and they also see its higher costs and its debt-funded buybacks. In Q3 2026, comparable store sales rose 7.2%, with double-digit growth with professional customers and mid-single-digit growth with do-it-yourself customers. Diluted EPS rose 14% to $0.97, which includes a $39 million benefit from tariff refunds. The company raised its 2026 guidance to comparable store sales growth of 5.5% to 6.5% and diluted EPS of $3.25 to $3.35. For the price to rise with value, three things must be true. Comparable store sales growth must stay near 5% or more. SG&A costs, such as health care and casualty claims, must grow more slowly than sales. New stores, 225 to 235 in 2026, must give good returns. The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 guidance, expected in early February 2027, is the next test.
Risks
SG&A costs can grow faster than sales. Health care and casualty claim costs were higher than expected in Q4 2025. Professional customers grow faster than do-it-yourself customers, and their sales have a lower gross margin. Many parts come from other countries. New tariffs can raise costs, and the tariff refund of $39 million in Q3 2026 will not come again. The company funds buybacks partly with debt. Adjusted debt rose to 2.26 times EBITDAR at September 30, 2026 from 2.04 times a year earlier, and shareholders' deficit was $2,093 million. Other parts retailers, distributors and online sellers compete for the same customers, and a slower economy can delay repairs.
Balance sheet
Cash: $194M Debt: $7.8B Net debt: $7.6B Interest cover: 14× Debt due within 12 months: $1.5B O'Reilly had a shareholders' deficit of $2,093 million at September 30, 2026, because over many years it spent more on buybacks than it kept from earnings. Cash was $194 million. The principal amount of debt was $7,750 million: $450 million of commercial paper at 4.170% and $7,300 million of unsecured senior notes. The $750 million of 5.750% notes due 2026 and the $750 million of 3.600% notes due 2027 were in long-term debt, because the company can refinance them; the 2026 notes matured on October 20, 2026 and were repaid with commercial paper. In 2026, O'Reilly issued $850 million of notes in March and $1,600 million in August. A $2.25 billion revolving credit facility runs to March 2030. Adjusted debt was 2.26 times EBITDAR of $4,868 million for the 12 months to September 30, 2026. Accounts payable were 121.8% of inventory. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026 ($2,926 million against $214 million). Operating cash flow was $2,598 million in the first nine months of 2026, capital spending was $860 million and buybacks were $3,468 million. As of 2026-09-30.
Checkpoints
Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 results: comparable store sales. Passed. Watch: Comparable store sales growth near 5% or more with higher operating margin passes; a slowdown fails. Outcome: Comparable store sales rose 7.2%, the operating margin rose to 21.4% and the company raised its 2026 guidance. Feb 3, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: Diluted EPS of $3.25 to $3.35 for 2026 and 2027 guidance for growth pass; lower guidance fails. Apr 29, 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: SG&A costs. Pending. Watch: SG&A per store growth below sales growth passes; higher cost growth fails.
Recent events
2026-10-28: O'Reilly reported Q3 2026 results. Sales rose 9% to $5.12 billion, comparable store sales rose 7.2% and diluted EPS rose 14% to $0.97. The company raised its 2026 guidance to comparable store sales growth of 5.5% to 6.5% and diluted EPS of $3.25 to $3.35. 2026-10-20: O'Reilly repaid $750 million of 5.750% senior notes that matured, with borrowings under its commercial paper program. 2026-08-14: O'Reilly issued $700 million of 4.800% senior notes due 2029, $500 million of 5.050% senior notes due 2031 and $400 million of 5.550% senior notes due 2037. 2026-07-13: Colin Yankee became Executive Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer. He was Chief Supply Chain Officer at Tractor Supply Company. 2026-02-04: O'Reilly reported full-year 2025 results. Comparable store sales rose 4.7%, and diluted EPS rose 10% to $2.97. The company said that SG&A costs were higher than it expected in Q4 2025 because of inflation in team member health care and casualty claim costs.
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