This is an old version of OSK from 13 days ago (Oct 31, 2026).See the latest version
OSK
- Price
- $139.94
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Jan 29, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Oshkosh
- Sector
- Specialty vehicles & equipment
- About
- Oshkosh designs and builds special vehicles and equipment. It reports three segments: Access, Vocational and Transport. Access sells JLG and SkyTrak aerial work platforms and telehandlers, mainly to equipment rental companies. Vocational sells fire trucks under the Pierce brand, airport vehicles, refuse and recycling trucks under the McNeilus brand, and concrete mixers. Transport builds military trucks for the US Army and allies and the Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDV) for the US Postal Service. Oshkosh makes money from the sale of vehicles, parts and service. Sales were $2.84 billion in Q3 2026, and its backlog was $15.1 billion on September 30, 2026.
- Thesis
- The market prices Oshkosh for lower profits that will be slow to recover. Its operating margin fell to 6.9% in Q3 2026 from 9.7% a year earlier. Oshkosh is changing how its Pierce plants build fire trucks, and output fell instead of rising. Fire truck production in Q3 2026 was lower than a year earlier and than in Q2 2026. In July 2026, Oshkosh cut its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to about $11.00, and on October 29, 2026 it cut it again, to $8.50 to $9.50. The NGDV postal truck still earns a low margin, and the low end of the outlook assumes that the Postal Service gives no new NGDV order in 2026. Investors doubt that Oshkosh can turn its large backlog into profit. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Fire truck output must rise each quarter from Q4 2026, as the new high-flow lines start to work. Management expects these lines to build 25% to 30% more fire trucks than in 2025 once they run fully. Access must turn its record backlog of $2.7 billion into sales with good margins. Transport margins must rise as NGDV output grows, and the Postal Service must keep ordering NGDV trucks. The Q4 report and the 2027 outlook, expected in late January or early February 2027, are the next test. If fire truck output recovers in 2027, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. If the production problems last, the gap can stay longer.
- Risks
- Fire truck production fell in Q3 2026 because Oshkosh is changing its manufacturing process, and Oshkosh cut its 2026 outlook twice. The CEO calls it a near-term issue, but further delays can cut profits again and keep the large fire truck backlog from turning into sales. Tariffs raise material costs. In Q2 2026, higher material costs, mainly from tariffs, cut the Access gross margin by 230 basis points, and price increases did not cover all of it. Access sales depend on construction and on the spending of equipment rental companies. Data center and megaproject demand is strong now, but a slower construction market can reduce orders. The NGDV and defense contracts have fixed prices. Cost increases or slower production can keep Transport margins low, as in Q3 2026 at 1.5% of sales. Oshkosh needs a new NGDV order from the Postal Service, and without one in 2026 its EPS can be up to $0.50 lower.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $558M Debt: $1.1B Net debt: $545M Interest cover: 5.7× Undrawn credit line: $1.6B, to March 2031 Debt due within 12 months: $500M Last debt due: 2030 Oshkosh has little debt for its size. At September 30, 2026, it had $558.0 million of cash. Debt was $1.1 billion: $300 million of 4.600% senior notes due May 2028, $300 million of 3.100% senior notes due March 2030, a $500 million term loan due March 2027, and small other debt. The term loan is the debt due within 12 months. Oshkosh has a $1.60 billion revolving credit facility that ends in March 2031, with no borrowings and $1.58 billion available on September 30, 2026. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026. The covenants allow debt of up to 3.75 times EBITDA. Customer advances of $2.08 billion, mainly for fire trucks and defense vehicles, also fund part of the working capital. Operating cash flow was $533.2 million in the first nine months of 2026, and Oshkosh expects $780 million to $880 million for the year. It bought back $82.4 million of shares in Q3 2026. As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: fire truck output and margins. Failed. Watch: Higher fire truck deliveries than in Q2 and a 2026 outlook kept near adjusted EPS of $11.00 pass; another cut to the outlook fails. Outcome: Fire truck production fell from Q2 2026, and Oshkosh cut its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $8.50 to $9.50 from about $11.00. Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: Higher fire truck output in Q4 than in Q3, 2026 adjusted EPS within $8.50 to $9.50 and a 2027 outlook with higher EPS pass; another cut, lower fire truck output or a 2027 outlook with lower margins fails.
- Recent events
- Oct 29, 2026: Oshkosh reported Q3 2026 results. Sales rose 5.7% to $2.84 billion, but operating income fell 24.3% to $197.1 million. EPS was $2.22, and adjusted EPS was $2.41, down from $3.20. Fire truck production fell from Q2 2026 because of problems with the new production process. Access sales rose 20.7%, and Access orders of $2.0 billion raised its backlog to $2.7 billion. Oshkosh cut its 2026 outlook to adjusted EPS of $8.50 to $9.50, from about $11.00, and to sales of about $11.0 billion. The low end assumes no new NGDV order in 2026. Oct 15, 2026: Oshkosh said that it will report its Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026. Oct 5, 2026: Oshkosh Defense received a second order for the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces of 50 Heavy Equipment Transporter tractors and 50 heavy-duty trailers. Jul 28, 2026: Oshkosh reported Q2 2026 results. Sales rose 6.7% to $2.92 billion, but operating income fell 16.6% to $243.2 million. EPS was $2.92, and adjusted EPS was $2.87, down from $3.41. Access orders were $1.5 billion. Oshkosh lowered its 2026 outlook to GAAP EPS of about $10.50 and adjusted EPS of about $11.00, on sales of about $11.2 billion, because fire truck output will rise more slowly than planned. May 8, 2026: Oshkosh reported Q1 2026 results. Sales were flat at $2.32 billion, and adjusted EPS fell to $0.85 from $1.92. Fire truck deliveries were below plan. Oshkosh kept its 2026 outlook.