PFE changes

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View the full Nov 4, 2026 version

Price: $29.58 → $30.00(+1.4%)
Next earnings: Nov 3, 2026 → Feb 3, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: No → Yes
About: Pfizer is one of the largest drug companies in the world, based in New York. It sells medicines and vaccines in many areas: cancer (Padcev, Lorbrena, Ibrance and Xtandi), heart disease (Eliquis and the Vyndaqel family), vaccines (Prevnar, Abrysvo and Comirnaty) and others. In November 2025, Pfizer bought Metsera, a company that develops obesity medicines, for $65.60 per share in cash plus a contingent value right of up to $20.65 per share. Pfizer expects 2026 revenue of removed: $60.5 added: $62.0 billion to removed: $62.5 added: $64.0 billion.
Thesis: The market prices Pfizer for a large loss of revenue as patents on major medicines expire in the next few years, and for lower drug prices in the United States. Revenue from COVID-19 products also continues to fall: removed: Pfizer now expects about $4 billion in added: Q3 2026, removed: down from about $5 billion in its earlier guidance. added: Paxlovid revenue fell 63% and Comirnaty revenue fell 29% at constant exchange rates. In Q2 2026, Pfizer recorded $4.3 billion of impairments on intangible assets, which shows that some past purchases earn less than planned. To replace the lost revenue, Pfizer depends on its newer medicines and its pipeline. Its launched and acquired products grew removed: 18% added: 32% in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, and it plans 10 Phase 3 studies of its monthly obesity medicine berobenatide in 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Pfizer must keep 2026 adjusted EPS within its removed: $2.80 added: guidance, which it raised on November 3, 2026 to removed: $3.00 guidance. added: $2.95 to $3.05. Its guidance for 2027, which it may give in December 2026 as it did for 2026, must show that cost savings and new medicines can offset the patent losses. The obesity program must produce positive Phase 3 data on schedule. removed: Pfizer reports Q3 added: The 2027 guidance in December 2026 removed: results on November 3, 2026, which is the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over several years, as the new medicines grow. The main reason it may not close is a faster revenue decline after the patent losses than the new medicines can replace.
Risks: Several large medicines lose patent protection in the next few years. Generic and biosimilar competition already lowers 2026 revenue by about $1.1 billion, and the loss grows as larger products lose protection. The US government wants lower drug prices, including prices linked to other countries. New price rules or negotiated prices can lower the revenue of Pfizer's main medicines. The pipeline must replace the lost revenue. The obesity market has strong competitors, and a failed trial, such as the Phase 3 sigvotatug vedotin study in June 2026, removes expected revenue. Pfizer recorded $4.3 billion of impairments in Q2 2026. More impairments are possible if acquired medicines sell less than removed: planned, added: planned. Debt was about $62.7 billion at September 27, 2026, and removed: high debt limits added: Pfizer plans no share removed: buybacks. added: buybacks in 2026.
Balance sheet: Cash: removed: $11.7B added: $14.3B Debt: removed: $63.2B added: $62.7B Net debt: removed: $51.5B added: $48.4B Undrawn credit line: $7.0B, to October removed: 2030 added: 2031 Debt due within 12 months: $2.7B Pfizer is reducing the debt that it took on for large purchases. At removed: June 28, added: September 27, 2026, total debt was removed: $63.19 added: $62.67 billion: long-term debt of removed: $60.50 added: $60.00 billion and short-term borrowings, including removed: the current part added: $2.60 billion of added: current long-term debt, of removed: $2.70 added: $2.67 billion. Cash and short-term investments were removed: $11.70 added: $14.27 billion: removed: $976 million added: $1.82 billion of cash and removed: $10.72 added: $12.45 billion of short-term investments. Pfizer has a $7.0 billion committed revolving credit facility that added: now matures in October removed: 2030 added: 2031 and supports its commercial paper. Net interest expense was removed: $1.11 added: $1.66 billion in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. Pfizer paid removed: $4.9 added: $7.3 billion of dividends in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026 removed: ($0.86 added: ($1.29 per share) and bought back no shares. Its 2026 guidance assumes no share repurchases, and it plans to reduce debt over the longer term. As of removed: Jun 28, added: Sep 27, 2026.
Checkpoints: Nov 3, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and new products. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Adjusted EPS on track for the $2.80 to $3.00 guidance with continued growth of launched and acquired products passes; a guidance cut fails. added: Outcome: Launched and acquired products grew 32%, and Pfizer raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.95 to $3.05. Q4 2026 (estimate): FDA decision on Talzenna with Xtandi in prostate cancer. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: FDA approval for HRR gene-altered metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer passes; a rejection or a delay fails. added: Outcome: In October 2026, the FDA approved Talzenna with Xtandi for men with HRR gene-mutated metastatic prostate cancer that is naive or sensitive to hormone therapy. Dec 2026 (estimate): 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance that shows stable adjusted EPS despite the patent losses passes; guidance for a large drop in EPS fails. added: Feb 3, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: 2026 results against guidance. Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS within the $2.95 to $3.05 guidance and continued growth of launched and acquired products pass; a miss of the guidance fails.
Recent events: added: Nov 3, 2026: Pfizer reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $16.6 billion, flat at constant exchange rates, and revenue without Comirnaty and Paxlovid grew 7%. Launched and acquired products grew 32%. Reported EPS was $0.56 and adjusted EPS was $0.87, the same as a year earlier, after a $650 million charge for the Innovent license. Pfizer raised its 2026 guidance to revenue of $62.0 billion to $64.0 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.95 to $3.05. It also named Cecile Guegan as CFO from November 1, 2026. The release lists October 2026 news: the FDA approved Talzenna with Xtandi for men with metastatic prostate cancer with HRR gene mutations and Tukysa as a first-line maintenance treatment in HER2-positive breast cancer, and the Phase 3 MagnetisMM-32 study of Elrexfio in multiple myeloma met its main goal. Oct 6, 2026: Pfizer declared a fourth-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.43 per share, payable on December 7, 2026. Sep 22, 2026: Pfizer said that it will report Q3 2026 results on November 3, 2026. Aug 4, 2026: Pfizer reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $15.0 billion, up 3% (1% at constant exchange rates). It had a reported loss of $0.04 per share because of $4.3 billion of impairments, and adjusted EPS was $0.77. Pfizer raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $60.5 billion to $62.5 billion and kept its adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80 to $3.00. It also announced $2.5 billion of additional cost savings, expected from 2027 through 2029. Jul 10, 2026: Pfizer completed its licensing agreement with Innovent Biologics for 12 early-stage cancer medicines. Innovent received $650 million upfront and can receive up to $9.85 billion more in milestone payments. Pfizer records the upfront payment as a charge in Q3 2026, which lowers 2026 adjusted EPS by about $0.10. Jun 18, 2026: Pfizer said that CFO Dave Denton will leave on August 15, 2026. Cecile Guegan became Interim CFO on August 16 while Pfizer searches for a new CFO. In June 2026, Pfizer also presented Phase 2b results for berobenatide, a monthly obesity medicine, and its Phase 3 lung cancer study of sigvotatug vedotin did not meet its main goal.