POR changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $44.15 → $44.42(+0.6%)
- Next earnings
- Oct 29, 2026 → Jan 29, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices PGE for regulatory risk in Oregon and for a very large need for new investment. On September 25, 2026, the OPUC approved the PGE plan for a holding company only with conditions that limit dividends based on retained earnings and credit ratings. PGE says that these conditions could limit its ability to fund its investments, and it does not plan to form the holding company unless the OPUC changes them. At the same time, PGE plans to buy the Washington utility business of PacifiCorp, with about 140,000 customers, for $1.9 billion. Its October 2026 resource plan also identifies 3,377 to 6,747 megawatts of new resources needed by 2030. These plans need much new debt and new shares. added: PGE says that its growth plan does not depend on the holding company. For the gap to close, PGE must earn 2026 adjusted EPS within its removed: $3.33 added: $3.18 to removed: $3.53 guidance. added: $3.28 guidance, which it lowered in October 2026 because of mild weather, and it must keep its long-term EPS growth target of 5% to 7%. The OPUC must change or clarify the holding company conditions, added: as PGE asked after the order, or PGE must find another way to fund its plan at a fair cost. The Washington purchase must receive its approvals, and the 2027 rate case must end with a fair return. removed: PGE reports Q3 2026 results added: The OPUC response, the FERC decision on removed: October 29, added: the Washington purchase that PGE asked for by December 15, 2026, removed: which is added: and the added: Q4 2026 report in early 2027 give the next removed: test. added: evidence. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is an Oregon regulator that keeps strict limits while PGE must invest heavily.
- Risks
- The OPUC holding company order limits dividends tied to retained earnings and credit ratings. PGE says that such conditions could limit its ability to fund needed investment, and a long dispute delays its financing plans. The Washington purchase needs $1.9 billion of financing, and the resource plan needs thousands of megawatts of new resources. More debt and new shares can lower the growth in EPS. Wildfires in Oregon can cause large damage and lawsuits, and PGE spends more each year on wildfire mitigation. Earnings depend on hydro conditions, power prices and weather. added: Mild weather lowered Q3 2026 EPS by $0.15 compared with a year earlier, and PGE lowered its 2026 guidance. A dry year or high market prices can raise power costs above what customer prices recover.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $35M added: $69M Debt: removed: $4.9B added: $5.0B Net debt: $4.9B Interest cover: removed: 1.9× added: 2.3× Undrawn credit line: $750M, to September 2030 Debt due within 12 months: $0.0M PGE funds itself with first mortgage bonds, bank term loans, commercial paper and new shares. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, long-term debt was removed: $4.93 added: $5.01 billion with no current maturities, and PGE had no commercial paper outstanding. Cash was removed: $35 added: $69 million. The $750 million revolving credit facility, which can grow to $850 million, was undrawn and runs to September 2030. In March 2026, PGE signed a $350 million term loan due in March removed: 2028 and a $681 million delayed draw term loan for added: 2028. For the Washington purchase, which needs $1.9 billion of removed: financing in total. In February 2026, added: financing, it removed: signed an added: has a bridge facility of about $1.3 billion and a delayed draw term loan of about $700 million. Under its February 2026 equity forward sale agreement for 9,467,455 shares, removed: which added: PGE received $156 million in the first nine months of 2026, and it can settle added: the rest until February 22, 2028. added: The debt to total capital ratio under the credit agreement was 53.6% at September 30, 2026, against a limit of 65%. Interest cover is income from operations added: of $415 million divided by net interest expense added: of $183 million for the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. The quarterly dividend is 55.125 cents per share. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and holding company plan. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: Adjusted EPS on track for the $3.33 to $3.53 guidance and a clear path on the holding company conditions pass; a guidance cut fails. added: Outcome: PGE lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.18 to $3.28 after the mildest Q3 in a decade, although it kept its long-term growth targets. Q4 2026 (estimate): OPUC response on the holding company conditions. Pending. Watch: A change or clarification of the dividend conditions that lets PGE form the holding company passes; an unchanged order fails. added: Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): added: Q4 2026 earnings: 2026 result and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS within $3.18 to $3.28 and 2027 guidance in line with the 5% to 7% long-term growth target pass; a result below the range or a lower growth target fails. 2027 (estimate): Approvals for the Washington purchase. Pending. Watch: Approval by the Washington commission and the other regulators on acceptable terms passes; a rejection or costly conditions fail.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 29, 2026: PGE reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $119 million, or $1.00 per share, and non-GAAP EPS was $1.06, compared with $1.00 a year earlier. The mildest Q3 in a decade lowered EPS by $0.15 compared with Q3 2025. Industrial demand grew 9% on a weather-adjusted basis. PGE lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.18 to $3.28 from $3.33 to $3.53 because of the weather, and it kept its long-term targets of 5% to 7% growth in EPS and dividends. It asked the OPUC to clarify or change two conditions of the holding company order. It signed build-transfer agreements for two solar and battery projects, Biglow and Salmonfly, with planned investments of about $900 million and $853 million. Oct 15, 2026: PGE filed its 2026 Clean Energy Plan and Integrated Resource Plan with the OPUC. One portfolio needs 3,377 megawatts of new resources by 2030 and more than 5,000 megawatts by 2032. A portfolio that meets the current HB 2021 emission targets needs 6,747 megawatts by 2030 and more than 9,000 megawatts by 2032. The plan also calls for more transmission. Sep 25, 2026: The OPUC issued its final order on the PGE holding company application. The order includes customer benefits of about $83 million, but it adds conditions beyond the stipulation with OPUC staff, including limits on dividends tied to retained earnings and credit ratings. PGE is evaluating reconsideration, clarification or judicial review, and it does not expect to proceed unless the conditions change. Aug 12, 2026: PGE and OPUC staff signed a stipulation that recommended approval of the holding company. It included $45 million of commitments and an agreement to keep the common equity of PGE at 45% or higher. Jul 31, 2026: PGE reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $68 million, or $0.59 per share, and non-GAAP EPS was $0.64. PGE kept its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.33 to $3.53. A new large load tariff raised prices for data centers and other new large customers by about 30% from July 8, 2026, and lowered prices for all other customers. PGE said that it would file a 2027 rate case for an increase of about 4.8%, with new rates from July 1, 2027. Feb 15, 2026: PGE agreed to buy parts of the Washington utility business of PacifiCorp, which serves about 140,000 customers, for $1.9 billion. The purchase needs approvals from FERC and from regulators in several states, and PGE expects it to close about 12 months after the regulatory filings.