PPL changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $35.65 → $35.38(−0.8%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 6, 2026 → Feb 6, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices PPL as a steady utility whose faster growth depends on data centers and on regulators. added: On November 6, 2026, PPL removed: expects added: raised its EPS growth removed: of 6% added: target to removed: 8% added: 7% to 9% a year through at least removed: 2029, near added: 2030, from the added: $1.94 midpoint of its 2026 forecast, with growth in the top added: half of the removed: range. added: range, and it set a $25 billion capital plan for 2027 to 2030. Data center demand in its areas is large: PPL Electric has removed: more than 11 added: 11.4 gigawatts under signed service agreements, and the Kentucky pipeline is removed: 13.7 added: 14.7 gigawatts. But recent rate decisions gave less than PPL asked for. In August 2026, Rhode Island regulators set a 9.275% return on equity and did not approve a second rate year, and the Kentucky rehearing order added only about $7 million of annual revenue. The investment plan also needs much new removed: debt. added: debt and about $3.0 billion of new equity. For the gap to close, PPL must earn 2026 ongoing EPS removed: within added: of at least $1.94, the midpoint of its removed: $1.90 added: narrowed $1.92 to removed: $1.98 guidance. added: $1.96 range, and then $2.06 to $2.14 in 2027. LG&E and KU must file for new generation by the end of 2026, as PPL expects, and receive approval. Invitium Energy must removed: sign at least one energy supply agreement by the end of 2026, as PPL expects. added: turn its non-binding terms with QTS for about 2 gigawatts into a signed agreement. The removed: Q3 added: Q4 2026 report, expected in removed: early November 2026, added: February 2027, is the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is weaker rate decisions, which would lower the return on new investment.
- Risks
- Regulators decide the return on investment. The 9.275% return on equity in Rhode Island and the partial Kentucky rehearing order show that decisions can be lower than PPL requests. Much of the extra growth depends on data centers. If developers delay their projects, or Invitium Energy signs no supply agreements, the investment upside does not come. Debt rose to removed: $20.3 added: $21.2 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, and interest expense rose removed: 17% added: 15% in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. added: The plan also needs about $3.0 billion of new equity. Higher interest rates make the investment plan more costly. LG&E and KU still use coal plants. Stricter environmental rules can raise costs or force earlier retirements.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $332M added: $393M Debt: removed: $20.3B added: $21.2B Net debt: removed: $20.0B added: $20.9B Interest cover: 2.7× Debt due within 12 months: removed: $534M added: $1.0B PPL funds its utilities with first mortgage bonds and funds the parent with senior notes, commercial paper and new shares. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, total debt was removed: $20.32 added: $21.25 billion: long-term debt of removed: $19.79 added: $20.21 billion, long-term debt due within one year of removed: $469 added: $358 million and short-term debt of removed: $65 added: $679 million. Cash was removed: $332 added: $393 million. removed: In the first half added: The group had about $2.9 billion of added: unused capacity on its credit facilities at September 30, 2026, removed: PPL issued $2.05 billion added: most of removed: long-term debt and retired $668 million. added: which expires in December 2030. Interest expense rose to removed: $456 added: $690 million in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026 from removed: $389 added: $599 million a year earlier. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the removed: first half added: nine months to September 30, 2026. PPL targets funds from operations of added: 16% to 18% of debt, and its plan for 2027 to 2030 needs about $3.0 billion of new equity in addition to the more than $1.5 billion of forward share sales from 2025 and 2026. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 6, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: 2026 forecast. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Ongoing EPS on track for the $1.90 to $1.98 forecast passes; a cut to the forecast or the growth target fails. added: Outcome: Ongoing EPS was $0.54, PPL narrowed its 2026 forecast to $1.92 to $1.96 with at least the $1.94 midpoint, and it raised its growth target to 7% to 9% a year. Dec 2026 (estimate): Invitium Energy supply agreement. Pending. Watch: At least one signed long-term energy supply agreement by the end of 2026 passes; no agreement fails. Dec 2026 (estimate): LG&E and KU request for new generation. Pending. Watch: A filing for new generation beyond the approved 2.3 gigawatts by the end of 2026 passes; a delay into 2027 fails. added: Feb 6, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: 2026 result and 2027 forecast. Pending. Watch: 2026 ongoing EPS of at least $1.94 and an unchanged 2027 forecast of $2.06 to $2.14 pass; a 2026 result below $1.94 or a lower 2027 forecast fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 6, 2026: PPL reported Q3 2026 results. Reported EPS was $0.49, and ongoing EPS was $0.54, up from $0.48. PPL narrowed its 2026 ongoing EPS forecast to $1.92 to $1.96 and expects at least the $1.94 midpoint. It raised its EPS growth target to 7% to 9% a year through at least 2030, in the top half of the range, set a 2027 forecast of $2.06 to $2.14, and set a $25 billion capital plan for 2027 to 2030 with rate base growth of about 10% a year. The plan needs about $3.0 billion of new equity. Invitium Energy agreed non-binding key terms with QTS to supply about 2 gigawatts to a data center in Salem Township, Pennsylvania, for 20 years. Oct 16, 2026: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro asked to take part in a Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission proceeding on rates and protections for large energy users, such as data centers. PPL Electric said that it welcomes the focus on customer protection and that its large-load tariff and a proposed transmission rider already protect other customers. Oct 5, 2026: LG&E and KU asked for proposals for firm, dispatchable thermal generation, of at least 50 MW, to serve load growth. Proposals are due on November 6, 2026. Selected resources would add to the generation plans that the Kentucky Public Service Commission already approved. Aug 27, 2026: Rhode Island regulators approved annual revenue increases of $44.1 million for electric and $93.7 million for gas service at Rhode Island Energy, with a 9.275% return on equity and 52% equity. The new rates started on September 1, 2026. Customers also receive about $170 million of bill credits from October 2026 through September 2027 under a commitment from the 2022 purchase. PPL kept its 2026 forecast. Aug 14, 2026: The Kentucky Public Service Commission approved part of the LG&E and KU rehearing requests. The order adds about $4 million of annual revenue for LG&E and about $3 million for KU above the February 2026 rate orders. Aug 7, 2026: PPL reported Q2 2026 results. Reported EPS was $0.30, and ongoing EPS was $0.33, up from $0.32. PPL kept its 2026 ongoing EPS forecast of $1.90 to $1.98 and its 6% to 8% growth target. It estimated $10 billion to $12 billion of possible generation investment through 2032 from data center demand in Pennsylvania and Kentucky. Jun 4, 2026: The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission approved a settlement, with some changes, that raises the annual base distribution revenue of PPL Electric by about $275 million from July 1, 2026.