- Company name
- Rio Tinto
- Sector
- Mining
- About
- Rio Tinto is one of the largest mining companies in the world. It mines iron ore, copper, bauxite and lithium, and it makes alumina and aluminium. Its largest business is iron ore from the Pilbara region of Western Australia. It also owns the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia, the Kennecott copper mine in the United States and a share of Escondida in Chile. It bought the lithium company Arcadium in March 2025. In 2025, revenue was $57.6 billion and underlying EBITDA was $25.4 billion. In the first half of 2026, copper, aluminium and lithium gave more than half of underlying EBITDA. The group has two parent companies, Rio Tinto plc in London and Rio Tinto Limited in Australia. The NYSE listing is an ADS, and one ADS is one Rio Tinto plc share. All amounts are in US dollars.
- Thesis
- The market prices Rio Tinto for lower iron ore prices in the next years. Iron ore is still its largest business, and new supply arrives from Simandou and other mines while steel output in China is weak. Costs also rise: diesel near $175 a barrel and a stronger Australian dollar add about $2.1 a tonne to Pilbara unit costs in 2026. Large projects use much of the cash. Free cash flow fell 28% to $4.0 billion in 2025, while capital spending rose. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Pilbara unit costs must stay within the 2026 guidance of $23.5 to $25.0 a tonne before these external effects. Simandou must keep its ramp-up on schedule toward a 60 Mtpa run-rate in the second half of 2028. Copper growth at Oyu Tolgoi must continue, so that copper and aluminium earn more of the profit. Free cash flow must rise as projects finish, and the company must announce about $5 billion of capital release by the end of 2026. The 2026 full-year results, expected in February 2027, give the next test. The gap depends on metal prices, so it can close slowly over two to three years.
- Risks
- Iron ore gives the largest part of profit. New supply from Simandou and other mines, and weak steel output in China, can lower iron ore prices and cut earnings and dividends.
Large projects such as Simandou, the Pilbara replacement mines, lithium in Argentina and the Kangwinan bauxite project use much of the cash. Delays or cost overruns can lower free cash flow, which fell 28% in 2025.
Costs depend on diesel prices and the Australian dollar. In 2026, these two factors add about $2.1 a tonne to Pilbara unit costs. A conflict in the Middle East can also disturb fuel supply and freight.
Rio Tinto works in countries such as Guinea and Mongolia, and it depends on agreements with governments and Traditional Owners. Changes in taxes, royalties or permits can lower returns.
Rio Tinto considered a merger with Glencore in early 2026. A large purchase at a high price can lower returns for shareholders.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $9.1B
Debt: $23.1B
Net debt: $14.1B
EBITDA, last 12 months: $28.6B
Net debt / EBITDA: 0.5× (low)
Debt due within 12 months: $1.7B
Net debt was $14.1 billion at June 30, 2026, down from $14.4 billion at December 31, 2025, and the net gearing ratio was 16%. Net debt includes leases and derivatives. Total financing liabilities were $23.1 billion, with a weighted average maturity of 11 years. Borrowings of $21.4 billion include listed bonds of $17.1 billion and Oyu Tolgoi project finance of $3.3 billion. The largest amount due in one year is $2.9 billion, in 2028. Cash and liquid investments were $9.1 billion. EBITDA is underlying EBITDA for the 12 months to June 30, 2026, a calculation from the 2025 and half-year figures. Net debt was about 0.5 times this amount. Rio Tinto pays half of underlying earnings as ordinary dividends and declared an interim dividend of $3.4 billion. It plans to release $5 billion to $10 billion of cash from its assets and had announced more than $2 billion by October 14, 2026.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Jan 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 operations review: Simandou and costs. Pending. Watch: Iron ore sales within the 2026 guidance and a faster Simandou ramp-up pass; lower sales guidance or a Simandou delay fail.
Feb 18, 2027 (estimate): 2026 full-year results and dividend. Pending. Watch: Higher free cash flow, net debt near or below the June 2026 level and a payout of 50% or more pass; lower free cash flow with rising debt fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-29: Rio Tinto opened lithium projects in Argentina that cost $1.4 billion.
2026-10-23: Rio Tinto said that it will invest $1.9 billion to develop the Kangwinan bauxite project in Western Cape York, Queensland.
2026-10-14: Rio Tinto released its Q3 2026 operations review. Global iron ore sales were 90.8 Mt, up 3%. Oyu Tolgoi copper production rose 27% and ran at an annualized rate of about 450 kt. Simandou reached an annualized run-rate of about 10 Mtpa. The company kept its 2026 production guidance and said that it had announced more than $2 billion of capital release in 2026. It said that diesel prices and a stronger Australian dollar raise Pilbara unit costs.
2026-10-01: Rio Tinto, the Tasmanian Government and the Australian Government agreed on terms that keep the Bell Bay aluminium smelter running until 2031.
2026-07-29: Rio Tinto reported first-half 2026 results. Underlying EBITDA rose 28% to $14.8 billion, and free cash flow rose 75% to $3.8 billion. Underlying earnings per share were 421.4 US cents, up 42%. Higher prices for copper, gold and aluminium drove the increase. The interim dividend was 211 US cents per share, up 43%. Net debt was $14.1 billion.
2026-07-27: Rio Tinto and the Western Australian Government signed agreements with Yindjibarndi WaterCo for the proposed sale of the Dampier seawater desalination plant.
2026-06-30: Rio Tinto and the Government of Mongolia agreed to change the interest rate of the Oyu Tolgoi shareholder loans.
2026-02-19: Rio Tinto reported 2025 results. Underlying EBITDA rose 9% to $25.4 billion. Underlying earnings per share were 669.2 US cents, flat on 2024. Free cash flow fell 28% to $4.0 billion as capital spending rose. The ordinary dividend was 402 US cents per share, a 60% payout. Net debt rose to $14.4 billion from $5.5 billion, mainly because of the Arcadium purchase.
2026-02-05: Rio Tinto said that it no longer considers a merger or other combination with Glencore, because it could not reach an agreement that gives value to its shareholders.
2026-01-08: Rio Tinto said that it was considering a possible merger or other combination with Glencore.