RSG changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $246.78
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- 2027-02-16
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Republic Services
- Sector
- Waste management
- About
- Republic Services (Republic) collects, transfers, recycles and disposes of solid waste for homes, businesses and cities in the United States and Canada. It also handles special waste, hazardous waste and field services in its Environmental Solutions business. At the end of 2025, it ran 377 collection operations, 255 transfer stations, 79 recycling centers, 207 active landfills, 24 treatment, storage and disposal facilities and 2 polymer centers, and it had 84 landfill gas-to-energy and other renewable energy projects. The company reports three segments: Group 1 and Group 2 for recycling and waste, and Group 3 for environmental solutions. The head office is in Phoenix, Arizona. Jon Vander Ark is President and Chief Executive Officer.
- Thesis
- Republic trades at a premium because investors pay for its steady price increases, its network of landfills and its regular growth from acquisitions. In Q3 2026, revenue rose 8.2% to $4,559 million, core price added 5.3% and adjusted EPS rose 2.1% to $1.94. The company raised its 2026 guidance to revenue of $17.425 billion to $17.475 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $5.550 billion to $5.575 billion. But volume fell 0.6% in the quarter, and losses from equity method investments were $158 million in the first nine months of 2026. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Price increases must stay above cost inflation. Volume must stop falling as the economy changes. Acquisitions of about $1 billion each year must add profit at good returns. The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 guidance, expected in mid-February 2027, is the next test. Steady growth over many years can hold the price, and only fast growth in earnings can make the premium smaller.
- Risks
- Volume falls when construction and industrial activity are weak. Volume lowered revenue by 0.6% in Q3 2026, and the company depends on price increases for growth. Landfills need permits, and new rules on emissions, PFAS and other substances can increase costs for closure, post-closure care and remediation. Republic invests in companies that qualify for investment tax credits. Losses from these equity method investments were $158 million in the first nine months of 2026, against tax benefits of about $119 million, and changes in tax law can reduce the benefits. Recycled commodity prices change. The average price was $142 per ton in Q3 2026, $16 more than a year earlier, and a fall in prices lowers recycling revenue. Debt rose to about $14.1 billion at September 30, 2026 for acquisitions and buybacks. Higher interest rates can increase interest expense when debt is refinanced.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $92M Debt: $14.1B Net debt: $14.0B Interest cover: 5.8× Debt due within 12 months: $48M Ratings: S&P A-, Fitch A-, Moody's A3 Republic funds itself with senior notes, commercial paper, a revolving credit facility and tax-exempt bonds. At September 30, 2026, debt was $14,055 million: $48 million due within one year and $14,007 million of long-term debt. Commercial paper was $899 million, and the weighted average interest rate on borrowings was 4.094%. In June 2026, Republic sold $1.2 billion of notes due 2031 and 2036. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026 ($2,652 million against $459 million). Operating cash flow was $3,519 million in the first nine months of 2026. The company spent $1,363 million on property and equipment, $1,117 million on acquisitions and investments, $848 million on buybacks and $577 million on dividends. The credit ratings are A- from S&P, A- from Fitch and A3 from Moody's. Stockholders' equity was $12,238 million. As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: price and guidance. Passed. Watch: Core price above cost inflation and a higher 2026 guidance pass; a lower guidance fails. Outcome: Core price added 5.3% to revenue, and the company raised its 2026 guidance for revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Feb 16, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with adjusted EPS growth and more acquisitions passes; lower margins or a fall in adjusted EPS fails. 2027 (estimate): Volume returns to growth. Pending. Watch: Flat or positive volume for a full year passes; a further decrease fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-29: Republic reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 8.2% to $4,559 million, EPS rose 9.7% to $1.93 and adjusted EPS rose 2.1% to $1.94. The company raised its 2026 guidance for revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow. The Board approved a $5 billion share repurchase authorization for January 1, 2027 to December 31, 2029. 2026-07-28: The Board raised the quarterly dividend by 4.5 cents to $0.670 per share. 2026-06-22: Republic agreed to sell $700 million of 4.750% notes due 2031 and $500 million of 5.000% notes due 2036. 2026-02-17: Republic reported full-year 2025 results. Revenue rose 3.5%, EPS was $6.85 and adjusted EPS was $7.02. For 2026, it guided adjusted diluted EPS of $7.20 to $7.28 and acquisitions of about $1 billion.