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SCGLY

Current
Price
$15.15
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings
Feb 4, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
No
Company name
Société Générale
Sector
Banking: retail, corporate and investment banking
About
Société Générale is a large French bank with about 110,000 employees and 27 million clients in 58 countries. It has three groups of businesses. French Retail, Private Banking and Insurance includes the SG retail network, private banking, insurance and the online bank BoursoBank, which had more than 9.4 million clients at the end of September 2026. Global Banking and Investor Solutions includes global markets, with a strong position in equity derivatives, and also securities services, financing, advisory and transaction banking. Mobility, International Retail Banking and Financial Services includes retail banks in the Czech Republic, Romania and several African countries, and Ayvens, which leases vehicles. In Q3 2026, net banking income was €2,531 million in French Retail, Private Banking and Insurance, €2,777 million in Global Banking and Investor Solutions and €1,855 million in Mobility, International Retail Banking and Financial Services. The bank reports in euros under IFRS. Its ordinary shares trade on Euronext Paris. Its American depositary receipts (ADRs) trade over the counter in the United States, and five ADRs represent one share. The head office is in Paris. Slawomir Krupa is Chief Executive Officer.
Thesis
The market priced Société Générale with caution for many years because its returns were low: the return on tangible equity (ROTE) was 6.9% in 2024. Since then, the bank has cut costs, sold businesses and raised its returns and payouts. ROTE was 10.2% in 2025 and 12.3% in the first nine months of 2026, and the cost-to-income ratio fell to 58.8%. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. ROTE must stay above 11% after 2026, also when market revenues fall. The cost of risk must stay in the range of 25 to 30 basis points. And the CET1 ratio must stay near 13% while the bank distributes 50% of its profit and buys back shares. The FY 2026 results on February 4, 2027 are the next test. If returns fall back below 10%, investors can again doubt the plan.
Risks
Global Markets revenues move with market activity. In Q3 2026, equity revenues rose 45.9%, but fixed income and currencies revenues fell 20.6%. Weak markets can lower revenues and returns fast. Credit losses can rise in a recession. The cost of risk was 28 basis points in Q3 2026, and the gross non-performing loan ratio rose to 2.75% at September 30, 2026, from 2.70% at June 30, 2026. Higher capital rules or a lower CET1 ratio can reduce dividends and buybacks. The CET1 ratio was 13.4% at September 30, 2026, against a requirement of 10.26%. Lower interest rates in the euro area or more competition for deposits in France can lower the net interest income of the French retail bank. Ayvens earns part of its profit from used car sales. Its revenues fell 12.2% in Q3 2026 because the result from used car sales was lower. The ADRs follow the share price in Paris and the euro. A stronger U.S. dollar lowers the value of the ADRs in U.S. dollars.
Balance sheet
As a bank, Société Générale funds itself mainly with customer deposits, debt securities and capital instruments. At September 30, 2026, the total consolidated balance sheet was €1,691 billion, customer deposits were €647 billion and customer loans were €481 billion. Group shareholders' equity was €73.4 billion, including €11.7 billion of deeply subordinated and undated subordinated notes. The CET1 ratio was 13.4%, about 320 basis points above the regulatory requirement, with risk-weighted assets of €405 billion. The leverage ratio was 4.5%, the liquidity coverage ratio was 145% and the net stable funding ratio was 118%. Net tangible asset value was €76.4 per share, on 716.7 million shares. By October 12, 2026, the group had issued about €18.8 billion of medium- and long-term debt and completed its 2026 funding program. Fitch rates the bank A+ with a stable outlook, Moody's A1 with a negative outlook and S&P A with a positive outlook. The bank distributes 50% of its adjusted net income, and it paid an interim dividend of €0.75 per share in October 2026. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: returns and costs. Passed. Watch: ROTE above 10% and a cost-to-income ratio below 60% pass; a cut of the 2026 targets fails. Outcome: ROTE was 13.0% in Q3 2026 and 12.3% in the first nine months, and the cost-to-income ratio was 58.8% in the first nine months. Feb 4, 2027: FY 2026 results and distribution. Pending. Watch: ROTE of about 11% or more for 2026, a CET1 ratio near 13% and a distribution of 50% of profit pass; a lower payout fails. Jul 29, 2027: H1 2027 results: returns after 2026. Pending. Watch: ROTE above 11% with a cost of risk of 30 basis points or less passes; ROTE below 10% fails.
Recent events
Oct 29, 2026: Société Générale reported Q3 2026 results. Net banking income rose 7.8% to €7,173 million, and Group net income rose 24.1% to a record €1,888 million, a ROTE of 13.0%. The cost-to-income ratio was 57.1%, and the cost of risk was 28 basis points. The CET1 ratio was 13.4%. The bank completed its extraordinary share buyback of €1.5 billion on September 30, 2026. Jul 30, 2026: Société Générale reported record Group net income of €3.5 billion for H1 2026 and raised its 2026 ROTE target to about 11%. It announced an extraordinary share buyback of €1.5 billion and an interim dividend of €0.75 per share, 23% more than in 2025, paid on October 7, 2026. Apr 30, 2026: Société Générale reported Q1 2026 results. Group net income rose 5.5% to €1,696 million, and costs fell 6.0%. ROTE was 11.7%. Feb 6, 2026: Société Générale reported 2025 results. Revenues were a record €27.3 billion, and Group net income rose 43% to €6.0 billion, a ROTE of 10.2%. The total distribution for 2025 was €4.7 billion, including a cash dividend of €1.61 per share and share buybacks.
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