SPG changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $205.44 → $234.75(+14.3%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 5, 2026 → Feb 5, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Simon Property Group is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns shopping malls, Premium Outlets and other retail and mixed-use properties, mostly in the United States. It earns most of its income from rent paid by retailers, restaurants and entertainment tenants. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, its U.S. malls and Premium Outlets were removed: 96.0% added: 96.5% occupied, and tenants had sales of removed: $838 added: $852 per square foot over the prior 12 months. Simon also holds a stake in Klépierre, a European mall owner, and other platform investments in retail brands. In October 2025, it completed a transaction for The Taubman Realty Group, in which it already held an interest. The company has its head office in Indianapolis and is in the S&P 100.
- Thesis
- The market prices Simon like other REITs, whose values move with long-term interest rates, and it doubts that physical retail can keep growing against online shopping. Simon also has a new leader: David Simon, its Chairman and CEO for many years, died on March 22, 2026, and the board appointed Eli Simon, 38, its Chief Operating Officer, as CEO and President. The company's results are strong: added: in Q3 2026, Real Estate FFO per share rose removed: 7.9% in Q2 2026, added: 4.7%, domestic property NOI rose removed: 8.5%, added: 6.6%, tenant sales per square foot rose removed: 13.9% added: 14.8% and occupancy removed: stayed at 96.0%. added: rose to 96.5%. Simon raised its 2026 guidance for Real Estate FFO added: again, to removed: $13.20 to $13.30 added: to $13.40 per removed: share. added: share, and raised its dividend. For the gap to close, three things must be true. NOI must keep growing at a mid to high single digit rate, with occupancy near 96% and rent per square foot rising. The new CEO must keep the same discipline in leasing, development and capital use, with stable credit ratings of A from S&P and A3 from Moody's. Long-term interest rates must stay stable, as Simon refinances debt at rates above its current average of about removed: 4.1%. The added: 4.3%; its new secured loans in Q3 2026 removed: report on November 5, 2026, and the added: cost 6.33%. The 2027 guidance added: with the Q4 2026 report, expected in early removed: 2027 give added: February 2027, gives the removed: tests. added: next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to eight quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher long-term interest rates, which raise financing costs and lower the value of rental income.
- Risks
- Higher long-term interest rates raise the cost of refinancing the debt, which was removed: $35.7 added: $35.4 billion at Simon's share at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, and lower the value that investors give to rental income. Retailer bankruptcies and store closures can lower occupancy and rent. Online shopping continues to take a share of retail sales. Eli Simon became CEO in March 2026 after the death of David Simon. A new leader can change strategy or capital allocation, and the market will judge his record over the next years. Simon has investments outside its core malls, such as Klépierre and retail brand platforms. Losses or impairments in these investments can lower earnings.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $1.7B added: $1.3B Debt: removed: $35.7B added: $35.4B Net debt: removed: $34.0B added: $34.1B Interest cover: removed: 4.7× added: 4.6× Undrawn credit line: removed: $7.6B added: $7.7B Ratings: S&P A (stable outlook), Moody's A3 (positive outlook) Simon funds itself mostly with unsecured notes, mortgages and revolving credit. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, total debt at Simon's share, including its share of joint venture debt, was removed: $35.7 added: $35.4 billion, of which consolidated debt added: at Simon's share was removed: $28.2 added: $27.9 billion. Of the total, 94.8% had a fixed rate, at an average of removed: 4.09%, added: 4.21%, and the average rate of all of it was 4.27%, with an average time to maturity of removed: 6.3 added: 6.4 years. Liquidity was about removed: $9.3 added: $9.0 billion: removed: $1.7 added: $1.3 billion of cash, including its share of joint venture cash, and removed: $7.6 added: $7.7 billion of available capacity under $8.5 billion of revolving credit facilities, net of added: $755 million of commercial paper. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, Simon added: issued $800 million of senior notes at an average coupon of 5.45% and closed removed: $1.4 billion added: about $970 million of secured loans at an average rate of removed: 5.36%, issued €500 million of 3.65% notes due in five years and closed a $460 million term loan. added: 6.33%. The fixed charge coverage ratio under its bond covenants was removed: 4.7 added: 4.6 times, and total debt was removed: 37% added: 36% of total assets as the covenants define them. S&P rates Simon A with a stable outlook, and Moody's rates it A3 with a positive outlook. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: NOI and occupancy. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Domestic property NOI growth of 5% or more, occupancy near 96% and the 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance kept or raised pass; lower guidance or a fall in occupancy fails. added: Outcome: Domestic property NOI rose 6.6%, occupancy rose to 96.5% and Simon raised its 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.30 to $13.40 per share. Feb added: 5, 2027 (estimate): 2027 guidance under the new CEO. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for Real Estate FFO growth near the 2026 rate and a steady dividend policy pass; guidance for flat FFO or a cut in investment plans fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 5, 2026: Simon reported Q3 2026 results. Real Estate FFO was $3.37 per diluted share, up 4.7%, and net income was $1.54 per diluted share, with $0.27 of non-cash losses on the Klépierre exchangeable bonds and an equity investment. Domestic property NOI rose 6.6%. Occupancy of U.S. malls and Premium Outlets was 96.5%, and base minimum rent rose 6.1% to $62.75 per square foot. Simon raised its 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.30 to $13.40 per share and raised the quarterly dividend to $2.30, up 4.5% from a year earlier. It bought back $236.5 million of shares in the quarter. Oct 6, 2026: Simon said it will report Q3 2026 results after the market close on November 5, 2026. Aug 10, 2026: Simon reported Q2 2026 results. Real Estate FFO was $3.29 per diluted share, up 7.9%, and net income was $1.49 per diluted share. Domestic property NOI rose 8.5%. Occupancy of U.S. malls and Premium Outlets was 96.0%, and base minimum rent rose 6.3% to $62.42 per square foot. Simon raised its 2026 Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.20 to $13.30 per share and raised the quarterly dividend to $2.25, up 4.7% from a year earlier. It bought back $211.4 million of shares and units in the quarter. Mar 23, 2026: Simon announced the death of David Simon, its Chairman, CEO and President. The board appointed Eli Simon, the Chief Operating Officer, as CEO and President. Mar 5, 2026: Simon amended and extended its $5.0 billion senior unsecured multi-currency revolving credit facility.