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SYF

Current
Price
$74.11
Fair value from
$77
Discount
3%
Next earnings
2027-01-20
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
Synchrony Financial
Sector
Consumer credit cards and financing
About
Synchrony Financial is a US consumer financing company based in Stamford, Connecticut. It issues private label and co-branded credit cards, installment loans and pay later products through partners, and it funds itself mostly with deposits at Synchrony Bank. It has five sales platforms: Home & Auto, Digital, Diversified & Value, Health & Wellness (including CareCredit) and Lifestyle. Its five largest programs in 2025 were Amazon, Lowe's, PayPal, Sam's Club and TJX, which together gave 54% of its interest and fees on loans. In September 2025, it launched a credit card program at Walmart with OnePay. At September 30, 2026, loan receivables were $103.3 billion and deposits were $83.0 billion. Most of its income is interest on card balances, less credit losses and payments to partners under retailer share arrangements.
Thesis
The market prices Synchrony for the risk of higher credit losses on its card loans to consumers and for its dependence on a few large partners. Its customers include many lower-income and middle-income households, so a weaker job market can raise loan losses quickly. Five partners gave 54% of its interest and fees on loans in 2025, and the loss of one large program would lower earnings. Recent credit results are good: in Q3 2026, the net charge-off rate fell to 4.79% and purchase volume rose 8% to $49.7 billion. But diluted EPS fell to $2.68 from $2.86 a year earlier, because expenses and payments to partners rose and a reserve release did not repeat. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The net charge-off rate must stay near or below its long-term target range as loan growth speeds up. Loan receivables must grow faster than the 3% of Q3 2026 with the new Walmart and Lowe's programs, in line with the mid-single-digit growth that Synchrony expects for 2026. The CET1 ratio, which fell to 12.9% after $1.1 billion of buybacks in Q3 2026, must still support steady buybacks. The Q4 report and the 2027 outlook in January 2027 are the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a rise in unemployment, which would raise loan losses.
Risks
Most of Synchrony's loans are unsecured card balances to consumers. Higher unemployment or high inflation can raise delinquencies and loan losses. Loans 30 or more days past due were 4.34% at September 30, 2026. Five programs gave 54% of interest and fees on loans in 2025. If a large partner ends or changes its program, or asks for a larger share of income, earnings can fall. Synchrony is a regulated bank holding company. New rules on card fees, interest rates or capital can lower its income or limit buybacks. Large banks, card networks and pay later companies compete for the same partners and customers.
Balance sheet
Synchrony funds itself mostly with deposits. At September 30, 2026, total assets were $122.5 billion and deposits were $83.0 billion, 83% of its funding. Borrowings were $17.0 billion: $8.9 billion of securitized financings and $8.1 billion of senior and subordinated unsecured notes. Cash and equivalents were $15.9 billion, and total liquid assets were $19.5 billion, or 15.9% of total assets. Loan receivables were $103.3 billion, with an allowance for credit losses of $10.3 billion, or 10.01% of loans. Total equity was $16.6 billion. The estimated CET1 ratio was 12.9%, down from 13.2% at June 30, 2026, and the Tier 1 capital ratio was 14.5%. Book value per share was $47.64 and tangible book value per share was $42.79. The remaining share buyback authorization was about $4.6 billion. As of 2026-09-30.
Checkpoints
Oct 20, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: credit and loan growth. Failed. Watch: A stable or lower net charge-off rate and faster loan receivables growth pass; a rise in delinquencies or a reserve build fails. Outcome: The net charge-off rate fell to 4.79% and loan growth rose to 3%, but Synchrony built its reserve by $30 million, which this test counts as a fail, although the allowance fell to 10.01% of loans. Jan 20, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with loan growth and net charge-offs within the long-term target range passes; guidance for higher losses fails.
Recent events
2026-10-20: Synchrony reported Q3 2026 results. Net earnings were $892 million, or $2.68 per diluted share, compared with $2.86 a year earlier. Purchase volume rose 8% to $49.7 billion and loan receivables rose 3% to $103.3 billion. The net charge-off rate fell to 4.79% from 5.16%, and loans 30 or more days past due were 4.34%. The net interest margin fell to 15.50%, and other expense rose 10%. Synchrony returned $1.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.1 billion of buybacks. For 2026, it now expects EPS of about $9.50, mid-single-digit loan growth and a net charge-off rate below 5.5%. 2026-09-22: Synchrony said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 20, 2026. 2026-07-31: Synchrony issued $600 million of 5.450% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2030 and $500 million of 6.276% fixed-to-floating rate senior notes due 2037. 2026-07-21: Synchrony reported Q2 2026 results. Net earnings were $885 million, or $2.59 per diluted share, compared with $2.50 a year earlier. Purchase volume rose 8% to a record $49.8 billion and loan receivables rose 2% to $102.2 billion. The net charge-off rate fell to 5.43% and loans 30 or more days past due were 4.16%. The net interest margin rose to 15.08%. Synchrony returned $950 million to shareholders, including $850 million of buybacks. 2026-06-29: Synchrony named Carol Juel CEO of its Digital platform, after Bart Schaller announced plans to retire. It also made other changes in its technology and operations leadership. 2026-06-05: Synchrony issued $500 million of 7.250% Series C fixed rate reset preferred stock.
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