- Company name
- Takeda Pharmaceutical
- Sector
- Pharmaceuticals: gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies and neuroscience
- About
- Takeda is a Japanese pharmaceutical company. It sells medicines in six key business areas: gastroenterology (GI), rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies (PDT), oncology, vaccines and neuroscience. In the six months to September 30, 2026, revenue was ¥2,407.0 billion. GI gave ¥776.8 billion, PDT ¥561.2 billion, rare diseases ¥395.7 billion, oncology ¥317.0 billion and neuroscience ¥220.9 billion. ENTYVIO, for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, is the largest product, with sales of ¥541.7 billion in the six months. The United States gave ¥1,130.7 billion of revenue and Japan ¥213.9 billion. Takeda reports in yen under IFRS, and its fiscal year ends on March 31. Its shares trade in Tokyo, and TAK is an ADR on the New York Stock Exchange. One ADS represents one half of one share. Julie Kim is President and Chief Executive Officer.
- Thesis
- Takeda trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for its new medicines, such as ORZEYFUL for narcolepsy type 1 and MIMRYLO for polycythemia vera, both approved in the United States in August 2026, and for zasocitinib, an oral psoriasis medicine that waits for an FDA decision. At constant exchange rates, Takeda expects Core EPS to fall by a low-teens percentage in the fiscal year to March 31, 2027, because older products lose sales to generic medicines. For the shares to keep this price, three things must be true. The FDA must approve zasocitinib in the first quarter of 2027, and its launch must start well. The new medicines must grow fast enough that Core EPS grows again in the fiscal year to March 2028. The ratio of adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA, 2.5 times at September 30, 2026, must not rise. The FDA decision on zasocitinib and the results for the nine months to December 2026, expected in late January 2027, are the next tests. A delay or a weak launch can push the shares down to the AI estimate.
- Valuation
- The intrinsic value for Takeda Pharmaceutical is an AI estimate from November 10, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Takeda's filings. The company reports in yen, and the estimate is in U.S. dollars per ADS. The method is a multiple of Core EPS for the fiscal year to March 31, 2028. Core EPS excludes the amortization and impairment of intangible assets from acquisitions, restructuring costs and other items. The earnings report for the six months to September 30, 2026 (6-K, October 29, 2026) gives Core EPS of ¥308 for the six months and a forecast of ¥482 for the fiscal year to March 31, 2027. It also gives bonds and loans of ¥4,575.6 billion, cash of ¥418.5 billion and a ratio of adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.5 times. The results for the fiscal year to March 31, 2026 (6-K, May 13, 2026) give Core EPS of ¥517. The Form 20-F for that year (June 17, 2026) states that each ADS represents one half of one share, with The Bank of New York Mellon as depositary. The ADS price of $21.09 and the Tokyo price of ¥6,673 on November 9, 2026 are close to this ratio. Core EPS is after interest, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. It uses an exchange rate of ¥158.29 per U.S. dollar, the market rate on November 9, 2026, as an assumption. The Core EPS and the multiples in each case are assumptions. The low case assumes that generic medicines take more sales and the new launches are slow, with Core EPS of ¥440, at 9 times. It gives ¥3,960 per share and $12.51 per ADS. The base case assumes that the new medicines start to replace the lost sales, with Core EPS of ¥500, at 11 times. It gives ¥5,500 per share and $17.37 per ADS. The high case assumes that zasocitinib and the other launches grow fast, with Core EPS of ¥560, at 13 times. It gives ¥7,280 per share and $23.00 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is ¥5,560 per share and $17.56 per ADS. The value moves with the yen. Intangible assets are the main source of the advantage. Patents and the know-how to make plasma-derived therapies and biologic medicines such as ENTYVIO make it hard for competitors to copy the products for some years. But each patent ends, and generic medicines then take most of the sales. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.
As of 2026-11-10.
- Risks
- Older products lose sales to generic medicines. Takeda expects Core revenue to fall by a low-single-digit percentage at constant exchange rates in the fiscal year to March 31, 2027.
The FDA can delay or refuse zasocitinib, and new medicines such as ORZEYFUL and MIMRYLO can sell less than planned.
Bonds and loans were ¥4,575.6 billion at September 30, 2026. Higher interest rates and a stronger yen against the U.S. dollar can reduce profit and cash flow.
Drug pricing rules in the United States, which gave 47% of revenue in the six months to September 30, 2026, can lower the prices of Takeda's medicines.
Takeda accrued interest for a court judgment in the AMITIZA litigation, and other lawsuits can cause more costs.
Takeda reports in yen. A stronger yen lowers the value of each ADS in U.S. dollars, because the ADS price follows the share price in Tokyo.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: ¥418.5B
Debt: ¥4,575.6B
Net debt: ¥4,157.1B
Net debt / EBITDA: 2.5× (medium)
Takeda funds itself mainly with bonds, including hybrid subordinated bonds, and with cash flow. Much of the debt comes from the purchase of Shire. At September 30, 2026, bonds and loans were ¥4,575.6 billion: bonds of ¥4,350.6 billion and loans of ¥225.0 billion. The total fell by ¥306.2 billion in the six months, mainly because Takeda repaid $1,500 million of U.S. dollar senior notes. Cash and cash equivalents were ¥418.5 billion. Adjusted net debt, which gives equity credit to the hybrid bonds, was ¥3,917.9 billion, 2.5 times adjusted EBITDA of ¥1,540.3 billion for the last 12 months. Operating cash flow was ¥431.9 billion in the six months. Takeda expects adjusted free cash flow of ¥700.0 billion to ¥800.0 billion for the fiscal year to March 31, 2027. The dividend forecast is ¥204 per share for that year, with ¥102 for the half year, payable from December 1, 2026. There were 1,602,218,559 shares issued and 4,769,662 treasury shares at September 30, 2026.
As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Results for the six months to September 2026 and forecast. Passed. Watch: Core EPS growth and a confirmed or higher forecast pass; a lower forecast fails. Outcome: Core EPS rose to ¥308, and Takeda raised its Core EPS forecast to ¥482.
Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): Results for the nine months to December 2026. Pending. Watch: A confirmed Core EPS forecast of ¥482 or more and growth of the new launches pass; a forecast cut fails.
Q1 2027: FDA decision on zasocitinib for plaque psoriasis. Pending. Watch: Approval by the target action date passes; a delay or a refusal fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-29: Takeda reported results for the six months to September 30, 2026. Revenue rose 8.4% to ¥2,407.0 billion, but fell 1.0% at constant exchange rates. Operating profit rose 60.4% to ¥406.7 billion, and Core EPS was ¥308, against ¥279 a year earlier. Takeda raised its forecast for the fiscal year to March 31, 2027 to revenue of ¥4,700.0 billion, Core operating profit of ¥1,190.0 billion and Core EPS of ¥482, mainly because of a weaker yen.
2026-09-14: The FDA accepted the New Drug Application for zasocitinib (TAK-279), an oral TYK2 inhibitor, for adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, under Priority Review. The target action date is in the first quarter of 2027. In the Phase 3 studies, about 70% of patients had clear or almost clear skin at week 16.
2026-08-28: The FDA approved MIMRYLO (rusfertide) for erythrocytosis in adults with polycythemia vera, a blood cancer. In the Phase 3 VERIFY study, 76.9% of patients had a clinical response during weeks 20 to 32.
2026-08-05: The FDA approved ORZEYFUL (oveporexton), a first-in-class oral orexin receptor 2 agonist, for adults with narcolepsy type 1. Takeda discovered and developed the medicine.
2026-05-13: Takeda reported results for the fiscal year to March 31, 2026. Core revenue was ¥4,505.7 billion, Core operating profit ¥1,172.5 billion and Core EPS ¥517. For the fiscal year to March 31, 2027, Takeda gave a first forecast of Core EPS of ¥472 and a dividend of ¥204 per share.