TAP changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $39.52 → $39.47(−0.1%)
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-06 → 2026-11-05
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Molson Coors for a long decline in beer volumes and for higher costs. In Q2 2026, brand volume fell 4.8%, net sales fell 3.3% and underlying EPS fell 22.9% to $1.58. Fewer young adults drink beer, and customers move to spirits, ready-to-drink cocktails and non-alcoholic drinks. Costs for aluminum, including the Midwest Premium of more than $130 million this year, and for logistics stay high. Molson Coors expects underlying EPS to fall 11% to 15% in 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. US brand volumes must stop falling faster than the beer market, so that Coors Light and Miller Lite keep their share. Cost savings and price must restore margins in 2027. The new businesses beyond beer, such as Monaco and Fever-Tree, must grow enough to offset part of the beer decline. Molson Coors keeps underlying free cash flow near $1.1 billion, which pays for dividends and buybacks while it waits. The Q3 2026 report, estimated for about on November 65, 2026, is the next test. The 2027 outlook in February 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a faster structural decline in beer drinking.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 65, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 earnings: volumes and costs. Pending. Watch: A smaller fall in US brand volume and results on track for the 2026 guidance pass; a cut to the guidance or a faster volume decline fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): 2026 results and the 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with stable or higher underlying earnings passes; guidance for another year of lower earnings fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-06: Molson Coors said that it will report Q3 2026 results at about 6:30 a.m. Eastern Time on November 5, 2026. 2026-08-06: Molson Coors reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales fell 3.3% to $3.10 billion and brand volume fell 4.8%. Underlying EPS fell 22.9% to $1.58, and GAAP EPS was $1.23. Molson Coors kept its 2026 guidance: flat net sales at constant currency, underlying EPS down 11% to 15% and underlying free cash flow of about $1.1 billion. After the quarter, it repaid its $2.0 billion of 3.0% senior notes. 2026-07-16: The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, paid on September 18, 2026. 2026-06-24: Philip Whitehead, the CEO of the EMEA&APAC business, took medical leave. Simon Kerry, the head of the UK and Ireland business, became interim head of EMEA&APAC. 2026-05-27: Molson Coors issued $500 million of 4.900% senior notes due 2031 and $1.0 billion of 5.500% senior notes due 2036. A subsidiary also sold C$500 million of 4.300% senior notes due 2033. 2026-04-01: Molson Coors bought Atomic Brands, the maker of Monaco Cocktails, a ready-to-drink cocktail brand, for $275 million in cash.