TIMB changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $18.67 → $17.68(−5.3%)
- Next earnings
- Oct 28, 2026 → Nov 9, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices TIM Brasil for the risks of Brazil and for the slow growth of a mature mobile market. Brazilian interest rates are high, the real can lose value against the US dollar, and taxes and rules can change. The three operators compete hard for prepaid customers, and prepaid revenue fell 6.9% in Q2 2026. A new controlling shareholder can also change the strategy or the dividend policy: Poste Italiane took control of Telecom Italia, TIM Brasil's parent, in September 2026. Results are steady: in Q2 2026, service revenue rose 5.7%, normalized EBITDA rose 7.0% with a 51.5% margin and normalized net income rose 6.2% to R$1.04 billion. TIM Brasil plans to pay R$5.3 billion to R$5.5 billion to shareholders in 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Service revenue must keep growing faster than inflation, with postpaid and fiber growth. The EBITDA margin must keep rising as TIM controls costs. Poste Italiane must keep TIM Brasil's strategy and its high shareholder payouts. The Q3 2026 removed: report, estimated for about October 28, 2026, added: report on November 9, 2026 is the next test. The 2027 plan and guidance, usually in February, are the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close slowly over the next one to two years. The main reason it may not close is the country risk of Brazil, which the company cannot control.
- Checkpoints
- removed: Oct 28, 2026 (estimate): added: Nov 9, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: service revenue and margin. Pending. Watch: Service revenue growth of 5% or more and a higher EBITDA margin pass; slower growth or a lower margin fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): 2026 results, the 2027 plan and the shareholder payout. Pending. Watch: A plan that keeps the strategy and raises shareholder payouts under the new controlling shareholder passes; lower payouts or a change of strategy fail.