TIMB changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $18.13 → $19.53(+7.7%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 9, 2026 → Feb 9, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- TIM S.A. (TIM Brasil) is one of the three large mobile network operators in Brazil, based in Rio de Janeiro. It had removed: 61.9 added: 61.6 million mobile customers at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, of which removed: 33.7 added: 34.0 million were postpaid. It also sells fiber broadband to homes under the TIM Ultrafibra brand, with removed: 899,000 added: 931,000 customers, and services to businesses, such as IoT and IT services through V8.Tech. It owns the fiber network company I-Systems. Its shares trade on B3 in São Paulo, and its ADRs trade on the NYSE; each ADR represents five common shares. Telecom Italia controls TIM Brasil, and since September 2026 Poste Italiane has controlled Telecom Italia. Net revenue was removed: R$6.97 added: R$7.07 billion in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026.
- Thesis
- The market prices TIM Brasil for the risks of Brazil and for the slow growth of a mature mobile market. Brazilian interest rates are high, the real can lose value against the US dollar, and taxes and rules can change. The three operators compete hard for prepaid customers, and prepaid revenue fell removed: 6.9% added: 4.2% in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026. A new controlling shareholder can also change the strategy or the dividend policy: Poste Italiane took control of Telecom Italia, TIM Brasil's parent, in September removed: 2026. added: 2026, and in November 2026 a press report said that TIM Brasil could be sold. Results are steady: in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, service revenue rose removed: 5.7%, added: 5.3% and normalized EBITDA rose removed: 7.0% added: 6.7% with a removed: 51.5% margin and normalized added: 52.4% margin. Normalized net income removed: rose 6.2% added: fell 7.8% to removed: R$1.04 billion. added: R$1.11 billion, because of higher income tax, lower interest income and higher lease costs. TIM Brasil plans to pay R$5.3 billion to R$5.5 billion to shareholders in removed: 2026. added: 2026, but in the first nine months it announced R$1.31 billion of interest on capital and bought back R$252 million of shares, for R$1.56 billion in total. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Service revenue must keep growing faster than inflation, with postpaid and fiber growth. The EBITDA margin must keep rising as TIM controls costs. Poste Italiane must keep TIM Brasil's removed: strategy added: strategy, and added: TIM must reach its removed: high shareholder payouts. added: 2026 payout plan. The removed: Q3 added: payouts of Q4 2026 removed: report on November 9, 2026 is added: and the removed: next test. The 2027 plan and guidance, usually in February, are the main removed: test. added: tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close slowly over the next one to two years. The main reason it may not close is the country risk of Brazil, which the company cannot control.
- Risks
- All of TIM Brasil's business is in Brazil. High interest rates, a weaker real, inflation or changes in taxes and telecom rules can lower its value in US dollars. Poste Italiane became the indirect controlling shareholder in September 2026. It can change the board, the strategy or the dividend removed: policy. added: policy, or sell TIM Brasil. In November 2026, TIM Brasil said that it does not know of any material fact about a sale. Claro and Vivo compete hard with TIM Brasil, mostly for prepaid customers. Prepaid revenue fell removed: 6.9% added: 4.2% in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, and price competition can slow revenue growth. TIM Brasil added: plans R$5.3 billion to R$5.5 billion of shareholder payouts in 2026, but it had announced or paid R$1.56 billion by September 30, 2026. A payout below the plan lowers returns to shareholders. TIM Brasil has tax disputes, such as those on the FUST and FUNTTEL telecom funds. added: It has not paid the full TFF inspection fee since 2020, and the amount recorded through September 30, 2026 was R$5.1 billion. Losses in these disputes can lead to large payments.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: R$4.5B added: R$5.2B Debt: removed: R$2.6B added: R$2.0B Net cash: removed: R$1.9B added: R$3.2B Debt due within 12 months: removed: R$1.1B added: R$961M Last debt due: 2031 TIM Brasil has net cash before leases. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, total financial debt was removed: R$2.65 added: R$1.98 billion, of which removed: R$1.11 billion added: R$961 million was short-term, and cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were removed: R$4.53 added: R$5.18 billion. With net derivatives of removed: R$230 added: R$248 million, net debt was minus removed: R$2.11 added: R$3.45 billion, a net cash position. added: Financial debt fell from R$2.65 billion at June 30, 2026, mainly because TIM paid off all the debt of I-Systems and V8.Tech early. The 5G license liability was removed: R$1.02 added: R$1.04 billion and lease liabilities were removed: R$13.61 added: R$13.54 billion, so total net debt including leases was removed: R$12.52 added: R$11.13 billion, or removed: 0.89 added: 0.78 times normalized EBITDA. Financial debt is in Brazilian removed: reais or hedged, and it includes added: reais: debentures due added: June 2028, added: BNB loans due February 2028 and BNDES loans added: due November 2031. The full payment of the TFF inspection fee has been suspended since 2020, and the removed: debt added: amount recorded through September 30, 2026 was R$5.1 billion, including R$1.5 billion of removed: I-Systems and V8.Tech. added: interest. Capex was removed: R$935 added: R$978 million in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026 and removed: R$2.29 added: R$3.27 billion in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 9, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: service revenue and margin. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Service revenue growth of 5% or more and a higher EBITDA margin pass; slower growth or a lower margin fails. added: Outcome: Service revenue rose 5.3%, and the normalized EBITDA margin rose to 52.4% from 51.7% a year earlier. Feb added: 9, 2027 (estimate): 2026 results, the 2027 plan and the shareholder payout. Pending. Watch: A added: 2026 payout in the R$5.3 billion to R$5.5 billion range and a plan that keeps the strategy and raises shareholder payouts under the new controlling shareholder removed: passes; added: pass; lower payouts or a change of strategy fail.
- Recent events
- Nov added: 9, 2026: TIM Brasil reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenue rose 5.3% to R$7.07 billion, and service revenue rose 5.3%. Normalized EBITDA rose 6.7% to R$3.70 billion, a 52.4% margin. Normalized net income fell 7.8% to R$1.11 billion, because of higher income tax, a weaker financial result and higher depreciation. Postpaid customers rose 5.2%, and TIM Ultrafibra customers rose 13.2%. Total net debt with leases fell to 0.78 times normalized EBITDA. TIM said that the results keep it in line with its 2026 targets. Nov 4, 2026: B3 asked TIM Brasil about a Valor Econômico report of a possible sale of TIM Brasil after Poste Italiane took control of Telecom Italia. TIM Brasil answered that it does not know of any material fact about a sale. Oct 30, 2026: The board of TIM Brasil approved a proposal to merge its subsidiary I-Systems into TIM S.A. A shareholders' meeting on November 30, 2026 will vote on it. Oct 2, 2026: TIM Brasil said that Poste Italiane held about 85.8% of Telecom Italia after the second acceptance period of its offer. Telecom Italia is the controlling shareholder of TIM Brasil. Sep 18, 2026: TIM Brasil said that Poste Italiane had become the controlling shareholder of Telecom Italia through a public tender and exchange offer, and so the indirect controlling shareholder of TIM Brasil. Sep 17, 2026: The board approved R$515 million of interest on capital, payable by January 22, 2027, and cancelled 13.2 million treasury shares bought under its buyback program. added: Aug 19, 2026: The board approved share buyback Program 9, for up to 55,187,638 shares and up to R$1 billion, until February 19, 2028. TIM closed Program 8, under which it bought 46,884,500 shares for about R$1 billion. Jul 28, 2026: TIM Brasil reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue rose 5.5% to R$6.97 billion and service revenue rose 5.7%. Normalized EBITDA rose 7.0% to R$3.59 billion, a 51.5% margin. Normalized net income rose 6.2% to R$1.04 billion. Postpaid customers rose 6.8% and TIM Ultrafibra customers rose 12.5%. In July 2026, the board approved capital contributions of up to R$600 million to I-Systems and up to R$70 million to V8.Tech, mainly to prepay their debt. Jun 17, 2026: The board approved R$400 million of interest on capital.