TRU changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $74.08 → $76.79(+3.7%)
- Next earnings
- Oct 27, 2026 → Jan 27, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices TransUnion for the risk of changes in the US mortgage credit market, for the credit cycle and for its debt. FICO started a new Mortgage Direct License Program, and TransUnion names it as an uncertainty for its mortgage business, where much of its recent growth came from higher prices. FICO mortgage royalties also lowered the adjusted EBITDA margin to 34.8% in Q2 2026 from 35.7%. Lending volumes depend on interest rates and the economy, and net debt was removed: 2.6 added: 2.5 times adjusted EBITDA added: at September 30, 2026, after the Mexico purchase. Its CFO, Todd Cello, will leave at the end of removed: 2026. added: 2026, and TransUnion has not named a successor. Results are strong: in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, revenue rose removed: 15%, added: 12%, organic constant currency revenue rose removed: 10% added: 8% and adjusted EPS rose to removed: $1.23 added: $1.25 from removed: $1.08. added: $1.10. TransUnion removed: raised added: kept its 2026 guidance removed: to added: of 8% to 9% organic growth and added: raised its adjusted EPS added: guidance to $4.81 to $4.88. But it guides Q4 2026 organic growth of removed: $4.75 added: only 3% to removed: $4.83. added: 6%, as the benefit of higher FICO mortgage prices gets smaller. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Organic growth must stay near high single digits as the mortgage rules change. Its new OneTru technology platform must lift margins as migrations finish. Free cash flow must lower leverage and pay for buybacks. The removed: Q3 added: Q4 2026 report removed: on October 27, 2026, is added: and the removed: next test. The 2027 removed: guidance added: guidance, expected in added: late January or February removed: 2027 is added: 2027, are the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a loss of mortgage revenue under the new FICO program.
- Risks
- FICO's new Mortgage Direct License Program and other changes in US mortgage credit scoring can lower TransUnion's mortgage revenue or margins. Demand for credit reports depends on lending volumes. Higher interest rates or a weaker economy can lower mortgage, card and auto lending activity. TransUnion holds sensitive personal data. A data breach or a regulatory action on consumer data can bring large costs and harm its reputation. Total debt was removed: $5.59 added: $5.46 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, mostly at variable rates. added: Interest rate swaps fix part of it, but a large swap ends on December 31, 2026. Higher interest rates raise its interest costs.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $839M added: $883M Debt: removed: $5.6B added: $5.5B Net debt: removed: $4.7B added: $4.6B EBITDA, last 12 months: $1.8B Net debt / EBITDA: removed: 2.6× added: 2.5× (medium) removed: Undrawn credit line: $479M, to June 2029 Debt due within 12 months: removed: $213M added: $109M Last debt due: 2031 At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, TransUnion had cash and cash equivalents of removed: $839 added: $883 million and total debt of removed: $5.59 added: $5.46 billion. The debt was mostly senior secured term loans at variable rates: removed: $1.88 added: $1.87 billion of Term Loan B-8 and $1.84 billion of Term Loan B-9, both due June 2031, removed: $1.22 added: and $1.21 billion of Term Loan A-4 due June removed: 2029 and $104.5 million of added: 2029. TransUnion paid back the Term Loan B-5 added: before it was due added: in November removed: 15, 2026. It had also drawn $520 million on its $1.0 billion revolving credit facility, which ends in June 2029, mostly to pay for Trans Union de removed: México, and $478.7 added: México. $108.6 million removed: remained available. $213.1 million of debt was due within 12 months. Net debt was removed: $4.75 added: $4.57 billion, and the leverage ratio was removed: 2.6 added: 2.5 times adjusted EBITDA of removed: $1.79 added: $1.81 billion for the last 12 months. added: Interest rate swaps fix the rate on part of the term loans; swaps with a notional amount of $1.52 billion end on December 31, 2026. Cash from operating activities was removed: $459 added: $889 million in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. added: On October 26, 2026, the board raised the share buyback authorization to $2 billion in total. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: mortgage and organic growth. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Organic constant currency growth within the 6% to 8% guidance and adjusted EPS of $1.18 or more pass; a cut to the 2026 guidance fails. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Organic constant currency revenue grew 8% and adjusted EPS was $1.25, and TransUnion raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. Jan 27, 2027 (estimate): 2026 results and the 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with high single digit organic growth and a higher margin passes; guidance that shows mortgage losses from the FICO program fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 27, 2026: TransUnion reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 12% to $1,312 million, and organic constant currency revenue rose 8%. U.S. Markets revenue rose 7%, with 11% growth in Financial Services, and International organic growth was 10%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 9% to $465 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.25, up from $1.10. TransUnion raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.81 to $4.88 and kept revenue guidance of $5,131 million to $5,162 million. Oct 26, 2026: The TransUnion board raised the share buyback authorization by $1 billion to $2 billion in total and raised the quarterly dividend to $0.135 per share from $0.125. TransUnion expects to buy back up to $500 million of shares in 2026, against $243 million by the end of Q3. Oct 1, 2026: TransUnion said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 27, 2026. Sep 19, 2026: CFO Todd Cello told TransUnion that he will resign on December 31, 2026, and give transition services until March 1, 2027. TransUnion started a search for a new CFO. Jul 28, 2026: TransUnion reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 15% to $1,310 million, and organic constant currency revenue rose 10%. U.S. Markets revenue rose 11%, with 18% growth in Financial Services, and International organic growth was 6%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $456 million and adjusted EPS was $1.23. TransUnion raised its 2026 guidance to revenue of $5,127 million to $5,162 million and adjusted EPS of $4.75 to $4.83. Apr 1, 2026: TransUnion bought the mobile division of RealNetworks for about $25.8 million to add to its communications solutions. Mar 2, 2026: TransUnion bought about 68% of Trans Union de México for about $659.7 million in cash, mostly with its revolving credit facility. It later raised its stake to about 95%.