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View the full Oct 31, 2026 version

Price: $113.49 → $130.60(+15.1%)
Discount category: Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings: Oct 29, 2026 → Jan 29, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: No → Yes
About: Tradeweb runs electronic marketplaces where banks, asset managers, hedge funds and other institutions trade bonds, swaps, ETFs and money market products. It reports revenue in four asset classes: rates, credit, equities and money markets. Rates is the largest; it gave removed: $302.5 added: $324.5 million of the removed: $558.9 added: $584.5 million of revenue in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026. Tradeweb earns variable fees on each trade and fixed subscription fees for access to its platforms. It also sells market data, mostly to its controlling shareholder, a London-based exchange and data group, under a license agreement. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, average daily volume on its platforms was removed: $3.0 added: $3.2 trillion. That shareholder owns a controlling stake, with removed: 90.0% added: 90.2% of the voting power and removed: 51.2% added: 51.7% of the economic interest at removed: June added: September 30, 2026.
Thesis: The market doubts that Tradeweb can keep its growth when market volatility falls and competition in credit trading gets stronger. Revenue grew 21.2% in Q1 2026, when volatility was high, removed: and only 9.0% in Q2 removed: 2026, when volatility was more normal. added: 2026 and 14.9% in Q3 2026. In credit, volume grows faster than revenue. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, US credit volume rose removed: 10.3%, added: 23.9%, but credit revenue rose only removed: 3.3%, added: 9.6%, because the average fee per million on cash credit fell removed: 11.4% added: 10.6% as trading moved to lower-fee removed: products. added: portfolio trades. ICE agreed on July 30, 2026 to buy MarketAxess, the main competitor in US credit, and investors expect a stronger rival after the deal closes in 2027. On October 19, 2026, Tradeweb agreed to buy Trumid, a credit trading platform, for about $1.97 billion, also with a target to close in the first half of 2027. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue must keep growing near 10% a year with normal volatility. Credit revenue must grow with credit volume, so the fall in fee per million must stop. Tradeweb's share of fully electronic US high grade trading, removed: 19.0% added: 19.9% in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, must keep rising after ICE owns MarketAxess and Tradeweb adds Trumid. The removed: first added: next check is the removed: Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026; Q3 average daily volume, already reported, was 22.4% higher than a year earlier. The full-year 2026 report removed: and added: with the 2027 expense removed: guidance follow added: guidance, expected in added: late January or early removed: 2027, and the added: February 2027. The ICE and MarketAxess closing and the Trumid closing are both expected in the first half of 2027. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If lower fees in credit continue, the gap can stay longer.
Risks: Competition in electronic credit trading can lower fees and market share. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, the average fee per million on cash credit fell removed: 11.4%, and added: 10.6%. Tradeweb's total share of US high grade TRACE volume removed: fell 29 basis points added: rose to removed: 25.7%. added: 27.9%, but a FINRA change to the TRACE count from August 31, 2026 makes this share look higher than before. ICE plans to buy MarketAxess in the first half of 2027, which joins the main credit competitor to a larger company with more resources. Trading volume depends on market volatility and interest rate moves. Revenue grew 21.2% in Q1 removed: 2026 and added: 2026, 9.0% in Q2 2026, when volatility was more removed: normal. added: normal, and 14.9% in Q3 2026. A long calm market can slow volume and revenue growth. Its largest shareholder, a London-based exchange and data group, controls Tradeweb, with removed: 90.0% added: 90.2% of the voting power at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. That shareholder is also the largest buyer of Tradeweb's market data, and the 2026 guidance includes about $105 million of revenue from that contract. Decisions by that shareholder, or a change to the contract, can affect other shareholders. The Trumid purchase must close and work. It needs approvals from US antitrust authorities, the UK Competition and Markets Authority and FINRA. If the deal ends in some cases, Tradeweb must pay Trumid a $105 million fee. After closing, Tradeweb must keep Trumid's hedge fund clients and join the two platforms without large costs. Tradeweb invests in new areas such as digital assets on the Canton Network and prediction market data with Kalshi. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, it held Canton Coins valued at removed: $230.0 added: $207.5 million, and it can transfer only part of them. The value of these coins can change removed: quickly. added: quickly: it recorded a $24.0 million loss on them in Q3 2026.
Balance sheet: Cash: $2.1B Debt: $0.0M Net cash: $2.1B Undrawn credit line: $500M, to November 2028 Tradeweb has no debt. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, it had removed: $2,058 added: $2,115 million of cash and cash equivalents and no borrowings under its $500 million unsecured revolving credit facility, which started in November 2023 for five years. removed: Only $0.5 million of letters of credit used the facility. Free cash flow over the 12 months to removed: June added: September 30, 2026 was removed: $1,076 added: $1,083 million, up removed: 13.0%. added: 9.7%. Tradeweb uses this cash for dividends, buybacks and acquisitions. On October 19, 2026, it agreed to pay about $1.89 billion in cash for Trumid, mostly from cash on removed: hand. added: hand, so most of the cash will go to this purchase at closing. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026 it bought back removed: $188.9 added: $209.8 million of stock, and removed: $334.3 added: $124.5 million of the buyback authorization remained at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. At the same date, Tradeweb held 1.6 billion Canton Coins valued at removed: $230.0 added: $207.5 million, of which 1.3 billion, valued at removed: $181.6 added: $163.7 million, had transfer limits. The cash figure does not include these coins. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: revenue growth and credit fees. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: Revenue growth near the 22.4% rise in Q3 volume and a credit fee per million that stops falling pass; credit revenue that again grows much slower than credit volume fails. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Revenue grew 14.9% while volume grew 22.4%, and the cash credit fee per million fell 10.6%, so credit revenue again grew much slower than credit volume. Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 expense guidance. Pending. Watch: An adjusted EBITDA margin that holds near 2026 levels with 2027 expense growth below revenue growth passes; expense guidance that lowers the margin fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): ICE completes the MarketAxess purchase. Pending. Watch: Stable or higher Tradeweb shares of fully electronic US high grade and high yield trading in the quarters after the closing pass; share losses or fee cuts to match the new rival fail. Q2 2027 (estimate): Tradeweb completes the Trumid purchase. Pending. Watch: A closing in the first half of 2027 with no large conditions from regulators passes; a block by regulators, a long delay or the $105 million termination fee fails.
Recent events: Oct added: 29, 2026: Tradeweb reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $584.5 million, up 14.9%, on average daily volume of $3.2 trillion, up 22.4%. Adjusted EPS was $1.02, up 17.2%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 54.5%. Credit revenue grew 9.6% while US credit volume grew 23.9%, because the average fee per million on cash credit fell 10.6%. Tradeweb raised its 2026 adjusted expense guidance to $1,155 to $1,175 million, because revenue grew faster. It bought back $209.8 million of stock in the quarter. Oct 19, 2026: Tradeweb agreed to buy Trumid, an electronic trading platform for US dollar corporate bonds, for about $1.97 billion. The price includes about $220 million for tax assets. Tradeweb pays about $1.89 billion in cash, mostly from cash on hand, and $82 million in equity. It expects the deal to add to adjusted EPS in the first full year after closing. The deal needs regulatory approvals in the US and the UK, and Tradeweb targets closing in the first half of 2027. Oct 6, 2026: Tradeweb reported September 2026 average daily volume of $3.7 trillion, up 29.0% from a year earlier. Q3 2026 average daily volume was $3.2 trillion, up 22.4%. US government bond volume rose 29% in September, and fully electronic US high grade credit had a record month. Sep 9, 2026: Tradeweb set October 29, 2026 as the date of its Q3 2026 results, with a call at 9:30 a.m. EDT. Jul 30, 2026: Tradeweb reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $558.9 million, up 9.0%. Adjusted EPS was $0.97, up 11.5%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 54.4%. Credit revenue grew only 3.3%, and the average fee per million on cash credit fell 11.4%. Tradeweb kept its 2026 adjusted expense guidance of $1,100 to $1,160 million, toward the top half of the range. It bought back $188.9 million of stock in the quarter and raised its dividend 16.7% from a year earlier, to $0.14 per share. Jul 30, 2026: ICE agreed to buy MarketAxess, Tradeweb's main competitor in US credit trading, for about $6.0 billion in cash. The companies expect the deal to close in the first half of 2027. Tradeweb's CEO said that the deal confirms the size of the credit fee pool and that Tradeweb welcomes rational competition. Apr 29, 2026: Tradeweb reported Q1 2026 results with record revenue of $617.8 million, up 21.2%. Average daily volume was $3.3 trillion, up 31.4%, with records in many products. Adjusted EPS was $1.08.