UL changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $65.01 → $64.40(−0.9%)
- Discount
- −3% to 16% → −2% to 16%(+1.0 pts)
- Thesis
- The market holds Unilever's price down while its Foods business is in a slow and complex separation. On March 31, 2026, Unilever agreed to combine Foods with McCormick. Unilever gets $15.7 billion in cash, its shareholders get 55.1% of the new company, and Unilever keeps 9.9%. The deal closes only by mid-2027, Unilever shareholders do not vote on it, and the UK, EU and US antitrust reviews can ask for sales of brands. The US review ended early on October 5, 2026, but the UK and EU reviews continue. Investors also expect that many Unilever shareholders will sell the McCormick shares they receive, and Unilever plans to sell its own stake after a one-year lock-up. The London share price fell about 14% from March 17 to April 14, 2026 on this news. A strong euro adds pressure, because currency cut turnover by 4.9% in the first half of 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Underlying sales growth must stay in the 4% to 6% range, with the second half at 4% to 5% as guided on July 28, 2026. The underlying operating margin must rise above the 20.0% of 2025. The Foods deal must pass its steps on time: the McCormick registration statement, the McCormick shareholder vote, the antitrust approvals and the closing by mid-2027. The first checks are the Q3 2026 trading statement on October 28, 2026 and, the Unilever investor event in New York on November 4, 2026 and the UK first-phase antitrust decision by November 11, 2026. If growth holds and the deal closes on plan, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters.
- Risks
- The Foods combination with McCormick is long and complex. It needs a McCormick shareholder vote, antitrust approvals in the UK, EU and USthe EU, and other approvals, and it is expected to close only by mid-2027. Regulators can ask for brand sales, and delays can keep the uncertainty on the share price. Unilever expects to give transition services to the combined company for about two to three years. Sales of the new McCormick shares can press on prices. Unilever shareholders will own 55.1% of the combined company, and many may sell. Unilever plans to sell its 9.9% stake after a one-year lock-up. Currency changes reduce reported results. Currency cut turnover by 4.9% and underlying EPS by 6.0% in the first half of 2026. A large part of sales comes from emerging markets with weak currencies. Unilever expects growth in the second half of 2026 to come mostly from higher prices. Weak consumers or strong competition in home and personal care can make price increases harder, and the macroeconomic environment is uncertain, as the CEO said on July 28, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 trading statement: sales growth. Pending. Watch: Underlying sales growth of 4% or more with positive volume, and the full-year outlook kept, pass; growth below 4% or a cut to the outlook fails. Nov 4, 2026: Investor event in New York. Pending. Watch: Clear medium-term targets for the home and personal care company, with margin growth above the 20.0% of 2025, pass; lower targets or more spending with no margin gain fail. Nov 11, 2026: UK first-phase antitrust decision on the Foods deal. Pending. Watch: Clearance, or clearance with small remedies, passes; a move to an in-depth second-phase review fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): Foods and McCormick deal closing. Pending. Watch: The McCormick vote, the antitrust approvals and the closing by mid-2027 with no large brand sales pass; a delay past mid-2027 or large required sales fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-19: Unilever agreed to sell Welly, a small US first-aid brand, to the private equity firm Forward Consumer Partners. The companies did not give the price. The sale is expected to close by the end of 2026. 2026-10-05: The US Federal Trade Commission ended the US antitrust waiting period early for the combination of McCormick and Unilever Foods, trade press reported. The UK Competition and Markets Authority must give its first-phase decision by November 11, 2026. 2026-09-09: At a Barclays conference, McCormick presented its plans for the integration, the cost savings and the debt reduction after the combination with Unilever Foods. The deal still needs the McCormick shareholder vote, antitrust approvals and an effective registration statement. 2026-07-28: Unilever reported first-half 2026 results. Underlying sales growth was 4.8%, with 4.2% from volume, and Q2 growth was 5.8%, with 5.5% volume, the best volume quarter in more than ten years. Turnover was €25.6 billion, up 0.5% after a 4.9% currency loss. Underlying EPS rose 2.4% to €1.61. Unilever raised its 2026 outlook to underlying sales growth within 4% to 6%, with about 3% volume, and a small rise in the margin. 2026-07-23: McCormick announced the planned operating model and the executive team of the company that will combine McCormick and Unilever Foods, with a secondary listing in London. 2026-06-05: Unilever completed its €1.5 billion share buyback, which started on April 30, 2026. It bought back 30,703,780 shares. It plans a total of €6 billion of buybacks from 2026 to 2029, funded partly by the Foods deal. 2026-04-30: Unilever reported Q1 2026 underlying sales growth of 3.8%, with 2.9% volume, ahead of analyst estimates. Turnover fell 3.3% to €12.6 billion because of currency. It raised the quarterly dividend by 3% to €0.4664.