VIV changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $11.42
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- 2026-11-09
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Telefônica Brasil
- Sector
- Telecommunications
- About
- Telefônica Brasil is the largest mobile operator in Brazil and sells its services under the Vivo brand. It had 38.1% of mobile accesses and 40.3% of postpaid mobile accesses in Brazil at December 31, 2025. It also sells fiber broadband, with 32.0 million homes passed and 8.2 million homes connected at June 30, 2026, and digital services for consumers and companies. It had 118.8 million accesses at June 30, 2026. Net revenue was R$15.76 billion in Q2 2026. Telefónica S.A. and its affiliates own about 77.1% of the shares. One ADS represents two common shares.
- Thesis
- The market prices Telefônica Brasil as a mature Brazilian telecom company whose value in US dollars depends on the Brazilian real, local interest rates and a controlling shareholder. Telefónica S.A. and its affiliates own about 77.1% of the shares, so few shares trade freely. Revenue grew 7.6% and EBITDA grew 10.9% in Q2 2026, and the company pays out all of its net income. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue must keep growing faster than inflation through postpaid, fiber and digital services. Net income must grow faster than revenue as the accelerated depreciation of copper assets ends, which removes about R$0.3 billion of cost each quarter from Q3 2026. The company must keep a payout of at least 100% of net income after its current commitment for 2024 to 2026 ends. The Q3 2026 report, expected in November 2026, gives the next test, and the 2026 results and the payout plan for 2027, expected in February 2027, give a second test. If these checks pass, the gap can close slowly over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker real or higher Brazilian interest rates, which lower the value in US dollars.
- Risks
- The company reports in Brazilian reais, and the ADS trades in US dollars. A weaker real lowers the dollar value of earnings and dividends. The company disputes several regulatory charges and has no provisions for them. At December 31, 2025, FUST cases were R$6.17 billion and FISTEL installation fee cases were R$2.49 billion. Its debt also does not include FISTEL TFF fees of R$7.3 billion for 2020 to 2026. Telefónica S.A. and its affiliates own about 77.1% of the shares and control the Board. Decisions on payouts, deals and related-party contracts depend on the controlling shareholder. Vivo had only 18.5% of fiber accesses at December 31, 2025, and many regional providers compete in fiber. Strong competition can slow fiber growth and prices.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: R$8.7B Debt: R$4.9B Net cash: R$3.8B Telefônica Brasil has little financial debt. Gross debt without IFRS 16 leases was R$4.93 billion at June 30, 2026, down 14.4% from a year earlier after it repaid a R$1.5 billion debenture in July 2025. It includes a debenture of about R$0.9 billion from FiBrasil. 99% of this debt is in reais, and the company hedges the part in foreign currency. Cash, investments and derivatives were larger than this debt, so the company had a net cash position of R$3.79 billion. Cash here is gross debt plus the net cash position, a calculation from the release figures. With IFRS 16 lease liabilities, net debt was R$11.00 billion. Debt does not include FISTEL TFF fees of R$7.3 billion for 2020 to 2026. Free cash flow was R$2.66 billion in Q2 2026, and capital spending was 16.4% of revenue. The company pays monthly interest on capital and plans to pay out at least 100% of 2026 net income. As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 9, 2026 (estimate): Q3 2026 results: lower depreciation. Pending. Watch: Net income that grows faster than revenue as copper depreciation ends, with steady postpaid and fiber growth, passes; slower revenue growth or flat net income fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): 2026 results and payout plan for 2027. Pending. Watch: A new commitment to pay out at least 100% of net income from 2027 passes; a lower payout target fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-14: The Board declared interest on capital of R$450 million gross, or about R$0.1408 per share, for shareholders of record on October 26, 2026. 2026-07-31: Shareholders approved the merger of the wholly owned subsidiary FiBrasil into Telefônica Brasil, effective August 1, 2026. 2026-07-27: Telefônica Brasil reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue rose 7.6% to R$15.76 billion, EBITDA rose 10.9% to R$6.58 billion and net income rose 17.0% to R$1.57 billion. Postpaid accesses grew 6.9% to 73.2 million, and fiber homes connected grew 11.3% to 8.2 million. Payments to shareholders in 2026 up to that date reached R$6.99 billion, including R$4.0 billion from a capital reduction, and the company repeated its plan to pay out at least 100% of 2026 net income. 2026-05-11: Telefônica Brasil reported Q1 2026 results. Net income rose 19.2% to R$1.26 billion. 2026-02-23: Telefônica Brasil reported 2025 results. Net income rose 11.2% to R$6.17 billion, and payments to shareholders were 103.4% of net income. On February 20, 2026, the Board approved a share buyback program of up to R$1.0 billion, which runs to February 22, 2027.