VIV changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $11.28 → $12.28(+8.9%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 10, 2026 → Feb 10, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Telefônica Brasil is the largest mobile operator in Brazil and sells its services under the Vivo brand. It had 38.1% of mobile accesses and 40.3% of postpaid mobile accesses in Brazil at December 31, 2025. It also sells fiber broadband, with removed: 32.0 added: 32.4 million homes passed and removed: 8.2 added: 8.4 million homes connected at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, and digital services for consumers and companies. It had removed: 118.8 added: 120.2 million accesses at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. Net revenue was removed: R$15.76 added: R$16.02 billion in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026. Telefónica S.A. and its affiliates own about 77.1% of the shares. One ADS represents two common shares.
- Thesis
- The market prices Telefônica Brasil as a mature Brazilian telecom company whose value in US dollars depends on the Brazilian real, local interest rates and a controlling shareholder. Telefónica S.A. and its affiliates own about 77.1% of the shares, so few shares trade freely. removed: Revenue added: In Q3 2026, revenue grew removed: 7.6% and added: 7.2%, EBITDA grew removed: 10.9% in Q2 2026, added: 10.0% and added: net income grew 30.1% after the added: accelerated depreciation of copper assets ended, and the company pays out all of its net income. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Revenue must keep growing faster than inflation through postpaid, fiber and digital services. Net income must removed: grow added: keep growing faster than revenue removed: as the accelerated depreciation added: without one-off gains, because Q3 2026 included R$366 million of removed: copper assets ends, which removes about R$0.3 billion of cost each quarter added: gains, mainly from removed: Q3 2026. added: sales of copper-related assets. The company must keep a payout of at least 100% of net income after its current commitment for 2024 to 2026 ends. The removed: Q3 2026 removed: report, expected in November 2026, gives the next test, and the 2026 results and the payout plan for 2027, expected in February 2027, give removed: a second added: the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close slowly over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker real or higher Brazilian interest rates, which lower the value in US dollars.
- Risks
- The company reports in Brazilian reais, and the ADS trades in US dollars. A weaker real lowers the dollar value of earnings and dividends. The company disputes several regulatory charges and has no provisions for them. At December 31, 2025, FUST cases were R$6.17 billion and FISTEL installation fee cases were R$2.49 billion. Its debt also does not include FISTEL TFF fees of removed: R$7.3 added: R$7.5 billion for 2020 to added: 2026, as of September 30, 2026. Telefónica S.A. and its affiliates own about 77.1% of the shares and control the Board. Decisions on payouts, deals and related-party contracts depend on the controlling shareholder. Vivo had only 18.5% of fiber accesses at December 31, 2025, and many regional providers compete in fiber. Strong competition can slow fiber growth and prices.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: R$8.7B added: R$7.2B Debt: removed: R$4.9B added: R$4.8B Net cash: removed: R$3.8B added: R$2.4B Telefônica Brasil has little financial debt. Gross debt without IFRS 16 leases was removed: R$4.93 added: R$4.82 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, removed: down 14.4% added: up 21.1% from a year removed: earlier after added: earlier, mainly because it removed: repaid a R$1.5 billion debenture in July 2025. It includes a debenture of added: took on about R$0.9 billion removed: from added: of FiBrasil debentures when it merged FiBrasil. 99% of this debt is in reais, and the company hedges the part in foreign currency. Cash, investments and derivatives were larger than this debt, so the company had a net cash position of removed: R$3.79 added: R$2.42 billion. Cash here is gross debt plus the net cash position, a calculation from the release figures. With IFRS 16 lease liabilities, net debt was removed: R$11.00 added: R$13.76 billion. Debt does not include FISTEL TFF fees of removed: R$7.3 added: R$7.5 billion for 2020 to 2026. Free cash flow was removed: R$2.66 added: R$2.43 billion in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, and capital spending was removed: 16.4% added: 16.0% of revenue. The company pays monthly interest on capital and plans to pay out at least 100% of 2026 net income. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 10, 2026: Q3 2026 results: lower depreciation. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Net income that grows faster than revenue as copper depreciation ends, with steady postpaid and fiber growth, passes; slower revenue growth or flat net income fails. added: Outcome: Net income rose 30.1% while revenue rose 7.2%, and postpaid accesses grew 7.1% and fiber homes connected 10.8%. Feb added: 10, 2027 (estimate): 2026 results and payout plan for 2027. Pending. Watch: A new commitment to pay out at least 100% of net income from 2027 passes; a lower payout target fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 10, 2026: Telefônica Brasil reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenue rose 7.2% to R$16.02 billion, EBITDA rose 10.0% to R$7.14 billion and net income rose 30.1% to R$2.46 billion. Lower depreciation after the end of the accelerated depreciation of copper assets and R$366 million of gains, mainly from sales of copper-related assets, helped net income. Postpaid accesses grew 7.1% to 74.7 million, and fiber homes connected grew 10.8% to 8.4 million. Free cash flow rose 37.7% to R$2.43 billion. The company repeated its plan to pay out at least 100% of 2026 net income, and it set December 15, 2026 as the payment date of R$325 million of interest on capital declared in February 2026. Oct 30, 2026: In answer to a letter from the Brazilian securities regulator CVM, Telefônica Brasil said that it had preliminary, non-binding talks with shareholders of Vero, a fiber internet provider. It said that it has made no decision and has no agreement on the structure, terms or conditions of a possible transaction. Oct 14, 2026: The Board declared interest on capital of R$450 million gross, or about R$0.1408 per share, for shareholders of record on October 26, 2026. Jul 31, 2026: Shareholders approved the merger of the wholly owned subsidiary FiBrasil into Telefônica Brasil, effective August 1, 2026. Jul 27, 2026: Telefônica Brasil reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue rose 7.6% to R$15.76 billion, EBITDA rose 10.9% to R$6.58 billion and net income rose 17.0% to R$1.57 billion. Postpaid accesses grew 6.9% to 73.2 million, and fiber homes connected grew 11.3% to 8.2 million. Payments to shareholders in 2026 up to that date reached R$6.99 billion, including R$4.0 billion from a capital reduction, and the company repeated its plan to pay out at least 100% of 2026 net income. May 11, 2026: Telefônica Brasil reported Q1 2026 results. Net income rose 19.2% to R$1.26 billion. Feb 23, 2026: Telefônica Brasil reported 2025 results. Net income rose 11.2% to R$6.17 billion, and payments to shareholders were 103.4% of net income. On February 20, 2026, the Board approved a share buyback program of up to R$1.0 billion, which runs to February 22, 2027.