VRSK changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $196.30 → $205.98(+4.9%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 5, 2026 → Feb 5, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Verisk sells data, analytics and software to the insurance industry. Its underwriting products include the standard policy forms, rules and loss cost data that insurers use to write and price policies, and catastrophe models for storms and other events. Its claims products help insurers find fraud and estimate the cost of property repairs. Insurers pay for most of these products with subscriptions, which give about 84% of revenue. The rest comes from transactions, such as reports bought one at a time. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, revenue was removed: $806 added: $809 million and adjusted EBITDA was removed: $464 added: $459 million. Verisk has data from many insurers over many decades, and the industry uses its forms and loss costs as a common standard.
- Thesis
- The market fears that AI will reduce the value of Verisk's data and analytics, and that growth has slowed. Revenue growth fell from 7.5% in 2024 to 6.6% in 2025 and to 3.9% in Q1 2026, which management called the low point. A court case adds a second doubt. In August 2026, a Delaware court ruled that Verisk had no right to end its $2.35 billion purchase of AccuLynx, a roofing software company, and told it to make reasonable efforts to get antitrust approval. Verisk appealed, and on October 23, 2026, the Delaware Supreme Court affirmed the ruling. The FTC asked for more information on the deal in 2025 and has not approved it, and Verisk bought back $1.9 billion of its shares in the first half of 2026 with cash and new debt, so a forced purchase adds debt. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Growth must return to the levels of the Investor Day removed: targets in the second half of 2026, added: targets, as management removed: expects; in Q2 added: expects. In Q3 2026, organic constant currency growth removed: was added: rose to 7.4% from 5.8% added: in Q2, and removed: underlying subscription growth was removed: 8.0%. added: 8.2%. Insurers must keep buying Verisk's AI products, and subscription renewals must hold. The AccuLynx purchase must end with small costs, either by an FTC decision or by a settlement, and with no large damages. The removed: first check is added: next checks are the removed: Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026. The full-year 2026 report added: and 2027 guidance in early removed: 2027 added: February 2027, and the FTC review of removed: AccuLynx follow. added: AccuLynx. If growth recovers and the case ends, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
- Risks
- The AccuLynx case can force Verisk to buy AccuLynx for $2.35 billion, a deal that the FTC questioned for harm to competition and has not approved. The appeal failed in October 2026, so Verisk must work to get approval, and it owes AccuLynx its direct costs plus interest. The deal adds debt after Verisk bought back $1.9 billion of shares in the first half of 2026. Legal fees already lowered profit in Q2 2026. AI tools can lower the value of insurance data and analytics, or let insurers and new companies build their own models. Verisk's shares fell by about half from their high by May 2026 on this fear. Longer sales cycles for AI products also slowed growth. Growth can stay slow. Revenue growth fell to 3.9% in Q1 added: 2026 before it rose to 5.3% in Q3 2026, and transaction revenue depends on weather events and claims activity, which change from year to year. Management changes can slow execution. The Chief Information Officer left his role in August 2026, and the Chief Human Relations Officer will retire after a successor is found.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $551M added: $557M Debt: $4.5B Net debt: $3.9B Interest cover: 6.9× Undrawn credit line: $1.2B Debt due within 12 months: removed: $250M added: $268M Last debt due: 2050 Verisk funds itself with unsecured senior notes of the parent company. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, removed: it had $4.25 billion added: debt was $4,227.8 million of added: long-term debt, mainly senior removed: notes, added: notes due from 2029 to 2050, and added: $267.5 million of short-term debt, including $250 million removed: drawn on a 364-day term loan due February 19, 2027. Cash removed: is cash and cash equivalents added: were $556.8 million at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, down from $2.18 billion at December 31, 2025. In January 2026, Verisk redeemed $1.5 billion of notes at 101% that it had issued for the AccuLynx purchase. In February 2026, it issued $1.0 billion of new notes due 2031 and 2036. It used cash, the new notes, the term loan and its revolving credit facility for $1.9 billion of buybacks in the first half of added: 2026, and it started a $100 million accelerated share repurchase in Q3 2026. Interest cover is GAAP operating income of removed: $363.7 added: $365.3 million divided by net interest expense of removed: $52.8 added: $53.0 million in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026. The $1.25 billion syndicated revolving credit facility had removed: $1.245 billion available. added: $1,245.1 million available at September 30, 2026. If Verisk must buy AccuLynx for $2.35 billion, debt will rise again. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 23, 2026: Delaware Supreme Court decision on AccuLynx. Failed. Watch: A win on appeal, or a settlement with small costs, passes; a ruling that forces the $2.35 billion purchase with large damages or a long FTC fight fails. Outcome: The Delaware Supreme Court affirmed the Chancery Court ruling, so Verisk must work to get FTC approval and the $2.35 billion purchase can still go ahead. Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: growth recovery. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Organic constant currency growth above the 5.8% of Q2 and subscription growth near 8% pass; growth that falls back toward the 3.9% of Q1 fails. added: Outcome: Organic constant currency growth rose to 7.4% and subscription growth was 8.2%, and Verisk kept its 2026 guidance. Feb added: 5, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with growth at the Investor Day target levels passes; lower growth guidance or a weaker margin fails. 2027 (estimate): FTC review of the AccuLynx purchase. Pending. Watch: An FTC decision or a settlement that ends the purchase obligation with small costs passes; a forced $2.35 billion purchase funded with more debt fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 5, 2026: Verisk reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $809 million, up 5.3%, or 7.4% on an organic constant currency basis. Subscription revenue grew 8.2% and transaction revenue grew 3.2%. Adjusted EBITDA was $459 million, a margin of 56.7%, and adjusted EPS was $1.96, up 14.0%. Free cash flow fell 40.5% to $200 million. Verisk started a $100 million accelerated share repurchase and kept its 2026 guidance. Oct 23, 2026: The Delaware Supreme Court affirmed the Chancery Court ruling in the AccuLynx case. Verisk said that it will act in line with the court order. The $2.35 billion purchase still needs FTC review and other closing conditions, and Verisk said that it is not certain that the deal will close. Oct 1, 2026: Verisk set November 5, 2026, before the market opens, as the date of its Q3 2026 results. Aug 18, 2026: Verisk filed an appeal with the Delaware Supreme Court against the Chancery Court ruling in its case with AccuLynx. Aug 7, 2026: The Delaware Court of Chancery ruled that Verisk had no right to end its $2.35 billion merger agreement with AccuLynx. The court ordered Verisk to use commercially reasonable efforts to get regulatory approval, and gave AccuLynx damages for its direct costs plus interest. The court did not order Verisk to close the deal at once. Verisk's shares opened 5.7% lower on August 10. Jul 29, 2026: Verisk reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $806 million, up 4.3%, or 5.8% on an organic constant currency basis, with 8.0% underlying subscription growth. Adjusted EPS was $1.98, up 5.3%, and free cash flow was $298 million, up 57.9%. Legal fees for the AccuLynx case lowered GAAP net income by 9.8%. Verisk kept its 2026 outlook and expects growth to return to the levels of its Investor Day targets in the second half. Jul 27, 2026: Verisk said that Nick Daffan, its Chief Information Officer, would leave the role on August 3, 2026, and stay as a strategic advisor until the end of the year. Jun 26, 2026: The trial in the AccuLynx case ended in the Delaware Court of Chancery. It ran from June 23 to 26, 2026. Apr 29, 2026: Verisk reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $783 million, up 3.9%, or 4.7% on an organic constant currency basis. Transaction revenue fell 6.1% because of weather, renewal comparisons and a federal contract. Adjusted EPS was $1.82. Verisk kept its 2026 guidance of $3.19 to $3.24 billion of revenue and $7.45 to $7.75 of adjusted EPS.