WEC changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $108.71 → $116.07(+6.8%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Oct 29, 2026 → Jan 29, 2027
- Thesis
- The market prices WEC for the cost of the largest capital plan in its history and for the regulatory risk that comes with it. The plan for 2026 to 2030 is $37.5 billion, and WEC expects to fund it partly with $5.3 billion to $5.7 billion of new common equity and $14.2 billion to $14.8 billion of incremental debt. Much of the plan serves very large data center customers, such as Microsoft in Mount Pleasant and the Vantage campus in Port Washington for OpenAI and Oracle, so the growth depends on a small number of customers. Rate cases in Wisconsin and Illinois are pending. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The Wisconsin and Illinois commissions must approve fair rate orders in Q4 2026 for new rates on January 1, 2027. The data center customers must keep building and use the forecast load, with the protections of the Very Large Customer tariff that the Wisconsin commission approved on May 21, 2026. WEC must meet its 2026 guidance of removed: $5.51 added: $5.60 to removed: $5.61 added: $5.64 per removed: share added: share, which it raised in October 2026 partly because of warm weather, and its long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 8%. The removed: Q3 2026 report, estimated for about October 29, 2026, and the rate orders in Q4 2026 added: and the Q4 2026 report in early 2027 give the added: next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a delay or cut in data center demand, which would leave less growth from the plan.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $50M added: $59M Debt: removed: $22.6B added: $22.8B Net debt: removed: $22.5B added: $22.7B Interest cover: removed: 3.1× added: 2.8× Debt due within 12 months: removed: $3.3B added: $3.0B WEC funds its utilities with long-term debt, short-term borrowings and new equity. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, long-term debt was removed: $20.63 added: $20.85 billion, including removed: $1.41 added: $1.13 billion due within one year, and short-term borrowings were removed: $1.93 added: $1.90 billion. Cash was removed: $50 added: $59 million. Interest cover is operating income added: of $1.98 billion divided by interest expense added: of $699 million for the first removed: six added: nine months of 2026. added: In the first nine months of 2026, WEC added: issued $2.40 billion of long-term debt, repaid $1.56 billion and issued $383 million of common stock, net. WEC targets S&P FFO to debt above 15% and Moody's CFO before working capital to debt above 16%. Its issuer ratings are A- from S&P and Baa1 from Moody's. The financing plan for 2026 to 2030 includes $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion of junior subordinated notes or other securities with equity content. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, removed: 2026 (estimate): added: 2026: Q3 2026 earnings. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: 2026 guidance of $5.51 to $5.61 per share reaffirmed or raised passes; a guidance cut fails. added: Outcome: WEC raised and narrowed its 2026 guidance to $5.60 to $5.64 per share, helped by warm weather and investment for the Very Large Customers. Dec 2026 (estimate): Wisconsin and Illinois rate orders. Pending. Watch: Orders near the requested returns on equity and equity ratios for rates from January 1, 2027 pass; large cuts to the requests fail. added: Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings: 2026 result and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2026 EPS within $5.60 to $5.64 and 2027 guidance in line with the 7% to 8% long-term growth target pass; a result below the range or lower growth fails.
- Recent events
- added: Oct 29, 2026: WEC reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $389.3 million, or $1.18 per share, up from $0.83. For the first nine months, EPS was $4.54, up from $3.85. Retail electricity deliveries, without the iron ore mine and the Very Large Customers, rose 3.3%, or 0.4% on a weather-normal basis. Because of warm weather and capital investment for the Very Large Customers, WEC raised and narrowed its 2026 guidance to $5.60 to $5.64 per share, from $5.51 to $5.61. Sep 4, 2026: WEC published an investor update. It shows a 2026 to 2030 capital plan of $37.5 billion, a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 8% and 3.9 GW of new electric demand expected from 2026 to 2030. It expects Wisconsin and Illinois rate orders in Q4 2026 for new rates on January 1, 2027. Aug 14, 2026: Wisconsin Electric agreed with NextEra Energy Point Beach to buy 86% of the output of the Point Beach nuclear plant for 20 more years, to 2050 for Unit 1 and 2053 for Unit 2. The agreement needs approval from the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin. Jul 29, 2026: WEC reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $299.2 million, or $0.91 per share, up from $0.76. For the first half, EPS was $3.36. WEC reaffirmed its 2026 guidance of $5.51 to $5.61 per share. May 21, 2026: The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin approved the Very Large Customer tariff for customers with 100 MW or more of new load. On the same day, the Illinois Commerce Commission approved a settlement that resolves 12 open rider dockets of Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas.