WEC changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $116.07 → $117.47(+1.2%)
- Thesis
- The market prices WEC for the cost of the largest capital plan in its history and for the regulatory risk that comes with it. removed: The added: In late October 2026, WEC raised its plan added: to $47.5 billion for removed: 2026 added: 2027 to removed: 2030 is $37.5 billion, and WEC added: 2031, including its share of American Transmission Company. It expects to fund it partly with removed: $5.3 added: $5.1 billion to removed: $5.7 added: $5.5 billion of new common equity and removed: $14.2 added: $18.7 billion to removed: $14.8 added: $19.3 billion of incremental removed: debt. added: debt, and it set up a program to sell up to $4.0 billion of common stock over time. Much of the plan serves very large data center customers, such as Microsoft in Mount Pleasant and the Vantage campus in Port Washington for OpenAI and Oracle, so the growth depends on a small number of customers. removed: Rate cases in added: On November 5, 2026, the Wisconsin added: commission approved the Wisconsin rate cases with a 9.50% return on equity and added: a 53.0% equity ratio, and the Illinois removed: are added: gas order is still pending. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The removed: Wisconsin and Illinois removed: commissions added: commission must approve added: a fair added: Peoples Gas rate removed: orders added: order in Q4 2026 for new rates on January 1, 2027. The data center customers must keep building and use the forecast load, with the protections of the Very Large Customer tariff that the Wisconsin commission approved on May 21, 2026. WEC must meet its 2026 guidance of $5.60 to $5.64 per share, which it raised in October 2026 partly because of warm weather, and its long-term EPS growth removed: target of added: target, which it raised in late 2026 to 7% to removed: 8%. added: 9% or more. The added: Illinois rate removed: orders added: order in Q4 2026 and the Q4 2026 report in early 2027 give the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a delay or cut in data center demand, which would leave less growth from the plan.
- Risks
- A large part of the load growth comes from a few data center campuses. If a customer delays or cancels its project, WEC has less growth from its plan, although the Very Large Customer tariff requires payment for the remaining book value on early termination. removed: Rate cases in added: The Wisconsin added: commission approved a 9.50% return on equity on November 5, 2026, but the written order is still to come, and added: the Illinois removed: are added: gas rate case is pending, with removed: orders added: an order expected in Q4 2026. Lower allowed returns or equity ratios than requested reduce earnings growth. WEC plans to issue removed: $5.3 added: $5.1 billion to removed: $5.7 added: $5.5 billion of common equity from removed: 2026 added: 2027 to removed: 2030. added: 2031, and it set up a program to sell up to $4.0 billion of stock in November 2026. Higher interest rates or a lower share price increase the cost of this funding. Illinois requires Peoples Gas to retire more than 1,000 miles of old pipe by January 1, 2035. Costs that regulators do not allow in rates reduce earnings.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $59M Debt: $22.8B Net debt: $22.7B Interest cover: 2.8× Debt due within 12 months: $3.0B WEC funds its utilities with long-term debt, short-term borrowings and new equity. At September 30, 2026, long-term debt was $20.85 billion, including $1.13 billion due within one year, and short-term borrowings were $1.90 billion. Cash was $59 million. Interest cover is operating income of $1.98 billion divided by interest expense of $699 million for the first nine months of 2026. In the first nine months of 2026, WEC issued $2.40 billion of long-term debt, repaid $1.56 billion and issued $383 million of common stock, net. WEC targets S&P FFO to debt above 15% and Moody's CFO before working capital to debt above 16%. Its issuer ratings are A- from S&P and Baa1 from Moody's. The financing plan for removed: 2026 added: 2027 to removed: 2030 added: 2031 includes removed: $5.0 added: $4.0 billion to removed: $6.0 added: $5.0 billion of junior subordinated added: notes. On November 2, 2026, after the balance sheet date, WEC issued $2.0 billion of junior subordinated notes removed: or other securities with equity content. added: due 2057. As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 5, 2026: The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin approved the rate cases of the Wisconsin utilities for 2027 with a 9.50% return on equity and a 53.0% equity ratio. WEC expects the final written order before the end of 2026. The Illinois order for Peoples Gas is still expected in Q4 2026. Nov 4, 2026: WEC signed an equity distribution agreement to sell up to $4.0 billion of its common stock over time. Nov 2, 2026: WEC issued $1.0 billion of 6.750% Series 2026A and $1.0 billion of 6.950% Series 2026B junior subordinated notes due 2057. Oct added: 30, 2026: In its Q3 2026 quarterly report and a November investor update, WEC showed a new capital plan of $47.5 billion for 2027 to 2031: $42.2 billion at its utilities and $5.3 billion for its share of American Transmission Company. It plans $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion of new common equity and $18.7 billion to $19.3 billion of incremental debt, including $4.0 billion to $5.0 billion of junior subordinated notes. It raised its long-term EPS growth target to 7% to 9% or more. Oct 29, 2026: WEC reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $389.3 million, or $1.18 per share, up from $0.83. For the first nine months, EPS was $4.54, up from $3.85. Retail electricity deliveries, without the iron ore mine and the Very Large Customers, rose 3.3%, or 0.4% on a weather-normal basis. Because of warm weather and capital investment for the Very Large Customers, WEC raised and narrowed its 2026 guidance to $5.60 to $5.64 per share, from $5.51 to $5.61. Sep 4, 2026: WEC published an investor update. It shows a 2026 to 2030 capital plan of $37.5 billion, a long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 8% and 3.9 GW of new electric demand expected from 2026 to 2030. It expects Wisconsin and Illinois rate orders in Q4 2026 for new rates on January 1, 2027. Aug 14, 2026: Wisconsin Electric agreed with NextEra Energy Point Beach to buy 86% of the output of the Point Beach nuclear plant for 20 more years, to 2050 for Unit 1 and 2053 for Unit 2. The agreement needs approval from the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin. Jul 29, 2026: WEC reported Q2 2026 results. Net income was $299.2 million, or $0.91 per share, up from $0.76. For the first half, EPS was $3.36. WEC reaffirmed its 2026 guidance of $5.51 to $5.61 per share. May 21, 2026: The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin approved the Very Large Customer tariff for customers with 100 MW or more of new load. On the same day, the Illinois Commerce Commission approved a settlement that resolves 12 open rider dockets of Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas.