WFRD changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $81.18 → $86.69(+6.8%)
- Thesis
- The market prices Weatherford for lower activity in the Middle East and for weak oilfield spending. The conflict with Iran disrupted work in the region in 2026. In Q3 2026, revenue was $1,143 million, 7% lower than a year earlier. In October 2026, Weatherford said that recent events in the Middle East reduced the expectation of a quick recovery. Cost control still raised the adjusted EBITDA margin to 22.2% in Q3 2026 from 20.2% in Q2. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Activity in the Middle East must recover, so that adjusted EBITDA rises in Q4 2026, as management expects, and revenue grows again in 2027. Adjusted free cash flow must stay strong, as in Q3 2026, when it was $155 million. The redomestication to Delaware, which shareholders approved on September 3, 2026, must close in Q4 2026 and give the expected $20 million to $30 million of annual cash savings from 2027, and the NCS Multistage purchase must give at least $15 million of cost synergies. The Irish High Court removed: decision on added: sanctioned the redomestication added: on October 27, 2026, so the move to Delaware on November 13, 2026 and the Q4 2026 report in about January 2027 give the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a new escalation in the Middle East or lower oil prices, which reduce customer spending.
- Risks
- A large part of the business is in the Middle East. The Iran conflict reduced MPD, wireline and completions activity in Q2 2026, and a further escalation can cut activity again. Customer spending depends on oil and gas prices. Lower prices can reduce drilling and completion work, mostly in North America and with national oil companies. The removed: redomestication needs the sanction of the High Court of removed: Ireland. added: Ireland sanctioned the redomestication on October 27, 2026, and it is to take effect on November 13, 2026. A delay can postpone the expected $20 million to $30 million of annual cash savings. The NCS Multistage purchase must be integrated. If the expected $15 million of cost synergies do not come, the purchase gives less value.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 21, 2026: Q3 2026 results: Middle East activity and margins. Passed. Watch: Higher adjusted EBITDA margin than the 20.2% of Q2 2026 and continued positive adjusted free cash flow pass; a lower margin or a further cut to the outlook fails. Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 22.2%, adjusted free cash flow was $155 million, and Weatherford raised its full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance again. removed: Dec 2026 (estimate): added: Nov 13, 2026: Redomestication to Delaware closes. Pending. Watch: The High Court of Ireland sanctions the scheme and the move closes in Q4 2026 passes; a delay into 2027 or a court refusal fails. Jan 20, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: EBITDA increase and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: Q4 adjusted EBITDA above the $254 million of Q3 2026 and a 2027 outlook for growth pass; flat or lower Q4 adjusted EBITDA or a weaker 2027 outlook fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 27, 2026: The High Court of Ireland sanctioned the scheme of arrangement that moves the parent company from Ireland to Delaware. Weatherford expects the move to take effect on November 13, 2026. Oct 20, 2026: Weatherford reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 3% from Q2 to $1,143 million but fell 7% from a year earlier. Net income was $120 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $254 million, a margin of 22.2%. Adjusted free cash flow was $155 million. Weatherford expects a meaningful increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2026 and raised its full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance again. Oct 20, 2026: Weatherford gave notice to redeem all $236 million of its 8.625% senior notes due 2030 on October 30, 2026, with cash on hand. It expects this to cut annual cash interest by about $20 million. Oct 15, 2026: The Board declared a dividend of $0.275 per share, payable on December 3, 2026. Sep 4, 2026: Weatherford appointed its Treasurer as Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer. Sep 3, 2026: Shareholders approved the scheme of arrangement to move the parent company from Ireland to Delaware. The High Court of Ireland must sanction it, and Weatherford intends to close it in Q4 2026. Sep 1, 2026: Weatherford had completed its purchase of NCS Multistage, and it registered the resale of 357,159 shares that it issued as merger consideration. Jul 21, 2026: Weatherford reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue fell 4% from Q1 to $1,105 million, net income was $39 million and adjusted EBITDA was $223 million, a margin of 20.2%. Cash from operations was $175 million and adjusted free cash flow was $139 million. The Iran conflict reduced activity in the Middle East, and Weatherford lowered its outlook for the full year slightly. Jun 11, 2026: The proposal to move the parent company to Texas received more than 60% of votes cast at the June 2026 shareholder meetings, but it needed 75% and did not pass. Weatherford then proposed a move to Delaware. May 31, 2026: Weatherford agreed to buy NCS Multistage in a stock and cash transaction to expand its well completions products.