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WMT

Current
Price
$125.66
Discount category
Far above intrinsic value
Next earnings
2026-11-19
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
Walmart
Sector
Discount retail
About
Walmart is the largest retailer in the world. It sells groceries, general merchandise and health products in more than 10,900 stores and on its websites and apps in 19 countries, and about 280 million customers and members visit each week. It has three segments. Walmart U.S. had net sales of $125.2 billion in Q2 fiscal 2027, Walmart International had $35.2 billion, and Sam's Club U.S., a membership warehouse club, had $25.7 billion. Walmart also earns fees from Walmart+ and Sam's Club memberships, sells advertising to suppliers through Walmart Connect, and runs an online marketplace for other sellers. Its global advertising business grew 46% to nearly $6.4 billion in fiscal 2026, and eCommerce sales grew 23% in Q2 fiscal 2027. Total revenue was $713.2 billion in fiscal 2026. Its fiscal year ends on January 31. In December 2025 it moved its stock listing from the NYSE to Nasdaq.
Thesis
Walmart trades at a premium because investors pay for steady growth that now comes with higher margins. Store traffic and eCommerce keep growing, and advertising, membership fees and the marketplace earn more profit per dollar of sales than groceries. In Q2 fiscal 2027, global advertising grew 38%, membership fee revenue grew 17% and eCommerce sales grew 23%. Investors also see Walmart as a safe stock when consumers spend less, because shoppers move to low prices. The price assumes that earnings grow much faster than sales for many years. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Adjusted operating income must keep growing faster than sales after the one-time tariff refunds of about $2.9 billion in Q2 fiscal 2027 pass. Advertising and membership must keep growing near their recent rates, so that the operating margin moves up each year. Capital spending of about 4% of net sales must turn into higher returns, with return on investment above the 15.4% of the 12 months to July 2026. The first test is the Q3 fiscal 2027 report, expected on November 19, 2026, against guidance of adjusted EPS of $0.62 to $0.64. The full-year report and the fiscal 2028 guidance in February 2027 give the second test. If margins stop rising, the premium can get smaller over the next one to two years.
Risks
The stock price expects strong profit growth for many years. If advertising, membership and eCommerce profit grow more slowly, or if Walmart must cut prices to keep shoppers, the price can fall even when sales keep growing. Tariffs and trade rules change costs quickly. Walmart received about $2.9 billion of tariff refunds in Q2 fiscal 2027 and put most of them into lower prices. New tariffs can raise costs again, and Walmart may not pass all of them to shoppers. Walmart spends more on stores, automation and delivery, with capital spending guided to about 4.0% of net sales in fiscal 2027. Free cash flow fell to $5.5 billion in the first half of fiscal 2027 from $6.9 billion a year earlier. If the spending does not raise returns, free cash flow stays low. Walmart still defends lawsuits about the sale of opioid medicines, including about 118 cases in a federal multidistrict case and a U.S. Department of Justice civil case. The company says that it cannot estimate the loss for most of these cases. Health and wellness sales face new maximum fair price rules for some drugs from January 1, 2026. These rules cut Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth by about 125 basis points in Q2 fiscal 2027.
Balance sheet
Cash: $11.5B Debt: $57.2B Net debt: $45.7B Interest cover: 18× Debt due within 12 months: $14.8B Walmart funds itself with cash flow, long-term notes and short-term borrowings. At July 31, 2026, total debt was $57.2 billion: short-term borrowings of $10.5 billion, long-term debt of $39.9 billion including $3.5 billion due within one year, and finance lease obligations of $6.8 billion. Operating lease obligations of $16.5 billion are not in this total. Cash and cash equivalents were $11.5 billion. Interest cover is operating income of $16.9 billion divided by debt and finance lease interest of $962 million for the first half of fiscal 2027. Operating cash flow was $19.7 billion in the first half, and capital spending was $14.2 billion, so free cash flow was $5.5 billion. Walmart bought back $5.1 billion of shares in the first half and had $25.1 billion left of its $30 billion program. After the quarter, in October 2026, it sold $3.0 billion and C$5.0 billion of new notes. As of 2026-07-31.
Checkpoints
Nov 19, 2026 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2027 results: margins after tariff refunds. Pending. Watch: Adjusted EPS at or above $0.62 to $0.64, adjusted operating income growth of 2% or more and steady advertising growth pass; a lower fiscal 2027 guidance or falling U.S. comparable sales fail. Feb 2027 (estimate): Fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 guidance. Pending. Watch: Fiscal 2028 guidance with adjusted operating income growing faster than sales passes; guidance with flat margins or lower returns on capital fails.
Recent events
2026-10-19: Walmart agreed to sell $3.0 billion of U.S. dollar notes due 2029 to 2036 and C$5.0 billion of Canadian dollar notes due 2030 to 2056. The sales closed on October 23, 2026. 2026-08-20: Walmart reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue grew 5.9% to $187.9 billion, and Walmart U.S. comparable sales grew 2.6%. Operating income grew 28.8%, or 17.4% adjusted in constant currency, helped by about $2.9 billion of tariff refunds that it mostly put back into lower prices. GAAP EPS was $0.80 and adjusted EPS was $0.81. Walmart raised its fiscal 2027 guidance to net sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0% and adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $2.87. 2026-05-21: Walmart reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue grew 7.3% to $177.8 billion, and Walmart U.S. comparable sales grew 4.1%. Higher fuel costs in distribution cut operating income growth to 5.0%. Adjusted EPS was $0.66, and Walmart kept its fiscal 2027 guidance. 2026-04-27: Walmart agreed to sell $4.25 billion of fixed and floating rate notes, the first of them due in 2029, for general corporate purposes. 2026-02-19: Walmart reported fiscal 2026 results. Revenue grew 4.7% to $713.2 billion, and adjusted operating income grew 5.4% in constant currency. Free cash flow was $14.9 billion. The board raised the annual dividend to $0.99 per share and approved a new $30 billion share buyback program. Walmart gave fiscal 2027 guidance of adjusted EPS of $2.75 to $2.85. 2026-02-01: John Furner became President and CEO. He replaced Doug McMillon, who retired as CEO on January 31, 2026. The board announced the change in November 2025. 2025-12-09: Walmart stock started to trade on Nasdaq under the same symbol, WMT. Walmart told the NYSE on November 19, 2025 that it would move the listing.
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