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XYL

Current
Price
$95.11
Discount category
Well below intrinsic value
Next earnings
Jan 27, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
Xylem
Sector
Water technology
About
Xylem makes pumps, treatment equipment, meters, sensors and software for water and wastewater, and it provides water services. It has four segments: Water Infrastructure, Applied Water, Measurement and Control Solutions, and Water Solutions and Services. From January 1, 2027, it will have three: Treatment and Services, Flow Solutions, and Measurement and Analytics. Its customers are utilities, industrial companies and commercial buildings. Revenue was $9 billion in 2025, and it has about 22,000 employees. Its headquarters are in Washington, D.C. Matthew Pine is CEO.
Thesis
The market prices Xylem for revenue that does not grow. Organic revenue was flat in Q3 2026, and Xylem now expects flat organic revenue for 2026, down from its earlier outlook of 2% to 3% growth. It cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.40 to $5.45 from $5.55 to $5.70. Xylem said that customers spend with more caution and that project timing moved revenue. Margins still rise: adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.9% in Q3 2026, and Xylem expects about 23.2% for 2026. The company is also changing its portfolio fast. It bought TriOS and WaterFleet, agreed to buy the Cornell Pump and Roper Pump businesses for about $1.46 billion, and plans to sell Applied Water International and Specialty Flow Control. It bought back $1.58 billion of shares in the first nine months of 2026 and issued $2.5 billion of new notes in 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Orders, which rose 10% organically in Q3 2026, must turn into organic revenue growth in 2027. Adjusted EBITDA margin must keep rising. The pump purchase and the two sales must add to adjusted EPS. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 guidance, expected in early 2027, give the next test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is weak spending by utilities and industrial customers, which would keep revenue flat.
Risks
Revenue does not grow: organic revenue was flat in Q3 2026, and Xylem expects flat organic revenue for 2026. Utility budgets and industrial spending can delay projects. Xylem bought back $1.58 billion of shares in the first nine months of 2026 and issued $2.5 billion of notes in 2026. It also agreed to pay about $1.46 billion for the Cornell Pump and Roper Pump businesses. More debt increases interest costs and reduces the room for more acquisitions. Tariffs, inflation and supply problems can increase costs. If price increases do not cover them, margins fall. Xylem changed its CFO in September 2026, moves to three segments in January 2027 and plans to buy and sell several businesses. Integration problems or low sale prices can reduce the expected benefits.
Balance sheet
Cash: $708M Debt: $2.9B Net debt: $2.2B Debt due within 12 months: $530M Xylem funds its business with senior notes, commercial paper and a revolving credit facility. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $2.90 billion, including $530 million due within 12 months, and cash was $708 million. Cash fell from $1.48 billion at December 31, 2025, because Xylem bought back $1.58 billion of shares in the first nine months of 2026 and paid for TriOS and WaterFleet. Debt rose from about $1.94 billion at December 31, 2025, after Xylem issued $1.0 billion of notes due 2033 and 2036 in May 2026. The 10-Q records the $1.5 billion of notes due 2029, 2032 and 2037 in the fourth quarter of 2026, so they are not in the September 30 debt. Xylem will use part of these notes to pay about $1.46 billion for the Cornell Pump and Roper Pump businesses. No commercial paper was outstanding at September 30, 2026. On September 8, 2026, Xylem signed a new $1.5 billion five-year revolving credit facility. Its debt to EBITDA must stay at or below 4.0 times for four quarters after a large purchase. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: orders and margins. Failed. Watch: Organic revenue growth in line with the 2% to 3% outlook, adjusted EPS guidance kept or raised and orders above revenue pass; a lower outlook or weak orders fail. Outcome: Orders rose 10% organically, but organic revenue was flat and Xylem cut its 2026 revenue outlook and adjusted EPS guidance. Q4 2026 (estimate): Cornell Pump and Roper Pump purchase closes. Pending. Watch: A close in Q4 2026 at about $1.46 billion passes; a delay past August 10, 2027 or an end of the deal fails. Jan 27, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for faster organic revenue growth than in 2026 and higher margins passes; flat growth guidance fails.
Recent events
Oct 27, 2026: Xylem reported Q3 2026 results. Orders rose 7% to $2.3 billion, or 10% organically. Revenue fell 3% to $2.2 billion and was flat organically. EPS rose 34% to $1.25, and adjusted EPS rose 5% to $1.44. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose 70 basis points to 23.9%. Xylem cut its 2026 revenue outlook to about $8.95 billion, flat organically, and its adjusted EPS guidance to $5.40 to $5.45 from $5.55 to $5.70. Oct 27, 2026: Xylem announced that it plans to sell its Applied Water International and Specialty Flow Control businesses. From January 1, 2027, it will have three segments instead of four. Hayati Yarkadas, the head of Water Infrastructure, stops being an executive officer on that date and leads the planned sales. Sep 29, 2026: Xylem completed the sale of $500 million of 5.250% senior notes due 2029, $500 million of 5.450% senior notes due 2032 and $500 million of 5.850% senior notes due 2037. Sep 8, 2026: Xylem entered into a new five-year senior unsecured revolving credit facility of up to $1.5 billion. Sep 2, 2026: Xylem completed the purchase of WaterFleet, a provider of mobile water and wastewater services, for $217 million. Aug 13, 2026: CFO William Grogan said he will resign on August 31, 2026. The board appointed Andrea van der Berg, Senior Vice President, Finance of the Water Infrastructure segment, as CFO from September 1, 2026. Aug 10, 2026: Xylem agreed to buy the Cornell Pump and Roper Pump businesses from Indicor for about $1.46 billion. It expects to close the deal in Q4 2026 after regulatory approvals. If the deal does not close by August 10, 2027, Xylem must redeem the $1.5 billion of notes that it sold in September 2026. Jul 28, 2026: Xylem reported Q2 2026 results. Orders rose 42% to $3.1 billion, and revenue rose 2% to $2.3 billion, or 1% organically. EPS was $1.11 and adjusted EPS was $1.46, up 16%. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose 150 basis points to 23.3%. Xylem raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.55 to $5.70 and lowered its revenue outlook to about $9.2 billion. Jul 24, 2026: Xylem agreed to buy WaterFleet, a provider of mobile water and wastewater services, for about $200 million. It expects to close the deal in 2026. Jul 1, 2026: Xylem bought TriOS Mess- und Datentechnik for about EUR 190 million ($216 million).
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