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View the full Nov 9, 2026 version

Price: $190.29
Discount category: Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings: 2027-02-11
Next earnings is estimate: Yes
Company name: Airbnb
Sector: Travel marketplace
About: Airbnb runs an online marketplace where hosts offer homes, hotels, experiences and services to guests. Guests booked 155.0 million nights and seats in Q3 2026, and gross booking value was $27.7 billion. Airbnb earns service fees and records revenue when the stay occurs. Revenue was $12.2 billion in 2025 and $11.2 billion in the first nine months of 2026. More than 5.5 million hosts use the platform in almost every country. It also sells car rentals, grocery delivery and other services, and it partners with Delta, Qantas, TAP Air and American Express.
Thesis: The market doubts that Airbnb can keep its growth and margins while it spends on new businesses, meets rules on short-term rentals in many cities and faces competition from AI travel agents. The Reserve Now, Pay Later option and new incentives lowered the implied take rate in Q3 2026. But the core business accelerated in 2026: in Q3, nights and seats booked grew 16%, revenue grew 19% and the adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 52%. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Nights booked must keep growing at a double-digit rate in 2027, after the strong 2026 comparison. The new businesses must add revenue while the adjusted EBITDA margin stays near the 2026 level of about 36%. Free cash flow must stay near $5 billion a year and fund the new $12 billion buyback, so that the share count keeps falling. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 outlook, expected in February 2027, give the next test, and the launch of Airbnb's own AI trip agent in the first half of 2027 gives another. If these checks pass, the gap can close within four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a travel slowdown or new city rules that cut the supply of homes.
Risks: Cities and countries limit short-term rentals and claim lodging and other taxes. Airbnb accrued $134 million for estimated lodging taxes at September 30, 2026. Spain fined Airbnb about €65 million over listing rules, and Airbnb disputes the fine with a €70 million surety bond in place. Travel demand depends on the economy and world events. Airbnb watches developments in EMEA, and in May 2026 it expected the conflict in the Middle East to slow growth in Q2 2026. AI assistants and search engines can become the place where travelers plan and book trips. If outside agents control the guest, Airbnb can lose traffic or pay more for marketing. Hotels, services and Reserve Now, Pay Later lower the implied take rate and move cash collection closer to the stay. Unearned fees fell to $1.5 billion at September 30, 2026 from $1.8 billion a year earlier. Stock-based compensation was $1.36 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Airbnb uses buybacks to offset the dilution, and this uses a large part of free cash flow.
Balance sheet: Cash: $12.6B Debt: $2.5B Net cash: $10.1B Interest cover: 28× Debt due within 12 months: $0.0M Last debt due: 2036 Airbnb has more cash than debt. At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $7.27 billion and short-term investments were $5.32 billion. Separately, it held $7.42 billion of funds for hosts and guests, which match equal payables. Debt was $2.5 billion of senior notes issued in March 2026: $850 million at 4.40% due 2029, $850 million at 4.65% due 2031 and $800 million at 5.25% due 2036. Interest rate swaps turn $1.65 billion of the 2031 and 2036 notes into floating rate debt. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of 2026 (a calculation from the release figures). On October 30, 2026, Airbnb signed a new five-year $1.0 billion revolving credit facility. Free cash flow was $4.90 billion over the 12 months to September 30, 2026. At that date, Airbnb could buy back $2.7 billion of shares, and it added a $12 billion program on November 5, 2026. As of 2026-09-30.
Checkpoints: Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: growth and margin. Passed. Watch: Revenue at or above the guidance of $4.69 billion to $4.77 billion and a stable adjusted EBITDA margin pass; a miss or a lower outlook fail. Outcome: Revenue was $4.87 billion, the adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 52% and Airbnb raised its 2026 outlook. Feb 11, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: Double-digit growth in nights booked and a 2027 outlook with a stable or higher margin pass; slower growth or a lower margin outlook fail. Jun 2027 (estimate): Launch of the AI trip agent. Pending. Watch: A launch to guests in the first half of 2027 with higher bookings per user passes; a delay or no effect on bookings fails.
Recent events: 2026-11-05: Airbnb reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 19% to $4.87 billion, net income was $1.89 billion and adjusted EBITDA rose 22% to $2.51 billion, a 52% margin. Nights and seats booked rose 16%, up from 10% growth in Q2. Airbnb raised its 2026 outlook to revenue growth in the high teens and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 36%. It expects Q4 revenue of $3.22 billion to $3.28 billion and announced a new $12 billion share buyback program. 2026-10-30: Airbnb signed a new five-year $1.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility that replaces its 2022 facility. 2026-10-28: Airbnb said that it will donate $0.10 of its revenue from every stay to Airbnb.org, a nonprofit that gives free housing to people in crisis. It expects to give $500 million over five years. 2026-10-22: Airbnb started an exclusive partnership with American Express that lists more than one million Airbnb homes on Amex Travel for eligible U.S. card members. 2026-08-06: Airbnb reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 17% to $3.6 billion and gross booking value rose 16% to $27.2 billion. It raised its 2026 outlook to revenue growth of at least the mid teens and an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 35.5%. It repurchased $1.1 billion of shares in the quarter. 2026-05-07: Airbnb reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue rose 18% to $2.7 billion, above the top of its guidance. It raised its 2026 outlook to revenue growth in the low to mid teens and an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 35%, and it expected a headwind of about 1 percentage point from the conflict in the Middle East in Q2. 2026-03-16: Airbnb sold $2.5 billion of senior notes due 2029, 2031 and 2036, with rates of 4.40% to 5.25%. It used $2.0 billion to repay its 0% convertible notes at maturity. 2026-02-12: Airbnb reported Q4 2025 results. Revenue rose 12%, above the top of its guidance. For 2026, it expected revenue growth of at least the low double digits and a stable adjusted EBITDA margin.