EXE changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $87.80
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Feb 16, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- added: Expand Energy
- Sector
- added: Natural gas production
- About
- added: Expand Energy Corporation (Expand Energy) is based in Spring, Texas. It says that it is the largest natural gas producer in the US. Its wells are in the Haynesville and in Northeast and Southwest Appalachia. Net production was 7.54 Bcfe per day in Q3 2026, and 92% of it was natural gas. It also buys and sells gas through its marketing business, which grew with the purchase of Twin Eagle in September 2026. Revenues and other were $3,286 million in Q3 2026. The common stock trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. Expand Energy files 10-K and 10-Q reports.
- Thesis
- added: The price of Expand Energy depends mostly on the US natural gas price, and the market weighs how much new demand from LNG exports and power plants will lift it. The average NYMEX gas price was $2.95 in Q3 2026, against $3.63 for nine months, and adjusted EBITDAX fell to $1,229 million in Q3 from $1,968 million in Q1. Debt is low for the size of the company, at 0.8 times adjusted EBITDAX, and the company returns cash with a base dividend and share repurchases. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. Gas prices must recover from Q3 levels as new LNG export plants and power plants use more gas. Production must stay near 7.5 Bcfe per day with capital spending of about $3 billion a year. The Twin Eagle marketing business must add earnings, as the $80 million of marketing EBITDA expected for Q4 2026 shows. The new chief executive, Daniel E. Brown, must keep costs and capital spending under control. The Q4 2026 report and the 2027 outlook, expected in February 2027, are the next tests.
- Risks
- added: Gas prices move earnings. Adjusted EBITDAX was $1,968 million in Q1 2026 and $1,229 million in Q3 2026, mainly because gas prices fell. Fixed costs to move gas are large. Future commitments for gathering, processing, transportation and storage were about $8.9 billion at September 30, 2026. Twin Eagle adds marketing risk. The business trades gas and uses a credit facility that matures in May 2027, and its integration is new. Leaders changed. A new chief executive started in October 2026, and a new chief accounting officer was appointed on October 8, 2026. LNG commitments add price risk. Expand Energy agreed to buy about 1.15 MTPA of LNG from Delfin for 20 years, with deliveries targeted from 2031.
- Balance sheet
- added: Cash: $118M Debt: $4.7B Net debt: $4.6B EBITDA, last 12 months: $5.8B Net debt / EBITDA: 0.8× (low) Undrawn credit line: $3.1B, to September 2031 Last debt due: 2035 At September 30, 2026, Expand Energy had debt principal of $4,688 million: $450 million drawn on its credit facility and senior notes of $638 million due 2029, $1,200 million due 2030, $500 million due 2031, $1,150 million due 2032 and $750 million due 2035. It also had $86 million of borrowings under the Twin Eagle receivable purchase agreement. Cash and cash equivalents were $118 million, so net debt was $4,656 million, which is 0.8 times adjusted EBITDAX of $5,805 million for the last twelve months. The $3.5 billion credit facility, which matures in September 2031, had about $3.1 billion available, and the Twin Eagle credit facility, which matures in May 2027, had about $734 million available. S&P rates the company BBB- and Moody's Baa3, and Fitch raised its rating to BBB in May 2026, all with a stable outlook. As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- added: Feb 16, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: 2026 production is in the guided range of 7.45 to 7.55 Bcfe per day and 2027 capital spending stays near $3 billion, and this passes; lower production or a large rise in capital spending fails.
- Recent events
- added: Oct 27, 2026: Expand Energy reported Q3 2026 results. Net income was $519 million, adjusted EBITDAX was $1,229 million and production was 7.54 Bcfe per day. It repurchased $305 million of common stock in Q3 and about $900 million in nine months. It plans a quarterly base dividend of $0.575 per share on December 3, 2026. Oct 19, 2026: The board appointed Daniel E. Brown, the former chief executive of Chord Energy, as President and Chief Executive Officer, from about October 26, 2026. Oct 6, 2026: Expand Energy moved the maturity of its $3.5 billion credit facility by one year to September 30, 2031. Sep 17, 2026: Expand Energy issued $500 million of 5.650% senior notes due 2031. Sep 16, 2026: Expand Energy completed the purchase of Twin Eagle, a natural gas marketing and logistics company, for about $1.4 billion including purchase price adjustments. Jul 24, 2026: The board added $1.0 billion to the share repurchase program, for a total of $2.0 billion.