FWONK changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $111.17
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Feb 25, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- added: Liberty Media
- Sector
- added: Motorsport media rights and events
- About
- added: Liberty Media Corporation (Liberty) is based in Englewood, Colorado. Its main businesses are Formula 1, which it owns fully, and MotoGP, of which it owns about 84%. Formula 1 holds the exclusive commercial rights to the FIA Formula One World Championship and earns race promotion, media rights and sponsorship fees. MotoGP holds the exclusive commercial rights to the FIM MotoGP World Championship and other motorcycle racing series. Liberty bought MotoGP on July 3, 2025 for about $3,659 million. Liberty used to have a tracking stock for its Formula One Group. The Liberty Live Split-Off was completed on December 15, 2025, and the company moved to Nevada on May 12, 2026. The Form 10-Q says that its only remaining common stock is no longer a tracking stock, so the Series A (FWONA), Series B and Series C (FWONK) shares now stand for the whole company, which is Formula 1, MotoGP and some corporate assets. In the nine months to September 30, 2026, revenue was $2,871 million and Adjusted OIBDA was $740 million. Derek Chang is President and Chief Executive Officer. Liberty files 10-K and 10-Q reports with the SEC, and its Series A and Series C stock trade on the Nasdaq Stock Market in US dollars.
- Thesis
- added: The price of Liberty depends on how fast Formula 1 earnings grow. Formula 1 holds the exclusive commercial rights to its championship under long contracts, and its fees rise every year. The company says that every race of 2026 sold out. Investors pay for that scarcity, and for the chance to raise the value of MotoGP. The 2026 numbers are not yet at that level. Formula 1 Adjusted OIBDA was $649 million in the first nine months of 2026, a fall of 5% from 2025, because two fewer races were held. The races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in April did not take place, and Bahrain moved to Malaysia in October. MotoGP Adjusted OIBDA fell 15% on a pro forma basis. Debt is $5.5 billion, and the minority owners of MotoGP can sell their 16% to Liberty from July 2028. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Formula 1 must grow Adjusted OIBDA again with a full calendar in 2027, which includes ten Sprint events. MotoGP must turn its new management and new weekend format into higher earnings. Liberty must repay the $475 million 2.25% convertible notes due in August 2027 without strain. The next tests are the 2026 report, expected in late February 2027, and the Q1 2027 report, expected in early May 2027.
- Risks
- added: Formula 1 and MotoGP depend on their rights agreements and on the number of races held. In 2026, two races did not take place because of the conflict in the Middle East, and Formula 1 Adjusted OIBDA for nine months fell 5%. More calendar changes may be needed. Debt is $5.5 billion, and the loans of Formula 1 and MotoGP have variable rates. A rise in rates, or a fall in earnings, makes the debt harder to carry. The minority owners of MotoGP, who hold about 16%, can sell it to Liberty at fair value, one third from July 2028, two thirds from July 2030 and the rest from July 2031. Liberty may pay up to half of the price in Series C shares, and the rest in cash. The carrying value of this claim is $667 million. MotoGP earns less than a year before and has a new management team. The 2027 calendar and weekend format must show that growth returns. Formula 1 pays team payments under the 2026 Concorde Commercial Agreement, which were $922 million in the first nine months of 2026. A change in those terms, or in the agreement with the FIA, would change the earnings of Formula 1.
- Balance sheet
- added: Cash: $2.3B Debt: $5.5B Net debt: $3.2B Debt due within 12 months: $635M Last debt due: 2032 At September 30, 2026, Liberty had cash of $1,758 million and short-term investments of $581 million. Debt was $5,529 million. It is Formula 1 senior loan facilities of $3,319 million, MotoGP credit facilities of $1,024 million, $475 million of 2.25% convertible senior notes due August 15, 2027, $690 million of 2.375% convertible senior notes due August 15, 2032 and $21 million of other debt. The 2027 notes are a current liability, and Liberty planned to repay them with the money from the 2032 notes. Debt that falls due within 12 months had a carrying value of $635 million. The redeemable noncontrolling interest in MotoGP, held by the sellers of MotoGP, was $667 million. Total equity was $7,878 million. Operating cash flow for nine months was $1,055 million. Formula 1 spent $108 million on capital expenditure in that time. Liberty, Formula 1 and MotoGP met their debt covenants. Liberty had 250,799,756 shares at October 31, 2026, and 254,581,896 shares after the exchange of November 4, 2026. As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- added: Feb 25, 2027 (estimate): 2026 results: Formula 1 Adjusted OIBDA. Pending. Watch: Formula 1 Adjusted OIBDA for 2026 is at or above the $946 million of 2025, and this passes; a lower amount fails. May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results. Pending. Watch: Formula 1 and MotoGP both report higher Adjusted OIBDA than Q1 2026 with a full race calendar, and this passes; a fall in either fails. Aug 15, 2027: 2.25% convertible notes due. Pending. Watch: Liberty repays the $475 million notes at maturity from the money raised in 2026 with no new strain on its debt, and this passes; a refinancing at higher cost fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 5, 2026: Liberty reported Q3 2026 results. Formula 1 revenue rose 28% to $1,115 million and Adjusted OIBDA rose 44% to $338 million, with one more race than a year before. For nine months, Formula 1 revenue was flat at $2,496 million and Adjusted OIBDA fell 5% to $649 million, with two fewer races. MotoGP Adjusted OIBDA for nine months was $127 million, down 15% on a pro forma basis. Nov 4, 2026: Liberty bought all the Series B shares of John Malone and related holders, which are 2,316,537 shares, for 602,302 Series A and 5,420,699 Series C shares. It also issued 12,298 Series A and 63,378 Series C adjustment shares. Dr. Malone's voting power fell to about 3%, and he became a Senior Advisor. Nov 4, 2026: The board adopted a rights plan. A person who gets 10% of the voting power (15% for a passive institutional investor) triggers it. The rights expire on November 3, 2027. Sep 2, 2026: Liberty named Philip Boeckman, a former partner at Cravath, Swaine and Moore, as Chief Legal Officer from October 1, 2026. Renee Wilm became a Senior Advisor. Aug 13, 2026: Liberty issued $690 million of 2.375% convertible senior notes due August 15, 2032, with a conversion price of $138.68 a share. On August 10, it paid $121 million for capped calls on its 2.25% convertible notes due 2027, with a strike of $82.98 and a cap of $125 a share. It planned to use the proceeds to repay the 2027 notes. Jun 17, 2026: MotoGP refinanced its Term Loan B with a new EUR 720 million loan due August 18, 2032 and its Term Loan A with a new $209 million loan due August 18, 2030.