HEINY changes

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View the full Nov 11, 2026 version

Price: $47.14
Discount category: Close to intrinsic value
Intrinsic value source: AI estimate
Next earnings: Feb 10, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: No
Company name: added: Heineken
Sector: added: Beer and other beverages
About: added: Heineken N.V. (Heineken) brews and sells beer, cider and other drinks. Its global brands are Heineken, Amstel, Tiger, Birra Moretti and Desperados, and it also sells many local brands and low- and no-alcohol beer. It reports four regions: Africa & Middle East, Americas, Asia Pacific and Europe. In the first nine months of 2026, total volume was 218.9 million hectolitres, and net revenue before exceptional items and amortisation (beia) was €22.9 billion. On January 30, 2026, it completed the purchase of the beverage and retail businesses of FIFCO in Central America, now HEINEKEN Costa Rica. Heineken Holding N.V. holds 50.005% of the issued shares. The shares trade on Euronext Amsterdam. Its American depositary receipts (ADRs) trade over the counter in the United States, and two ADRs represent one share. The head office is in Amsterdam. Rafa Oliveira has been Chief Executive Officer since October 1, 2026.
Thesis: added: The market prices Heineken below the AI estimate because beer volumes in its large markets grew slowly. Total volume fell 1.2% in 2025, and in the first nine months of 2026 volume fell 1.6% in the Americas and 0.1% in Europe. Growth came mainly from Asia Pacific and Africa & Middle East, and from premium and low- and no-alcohol beer. Heineken also has more debt after the purchase of FIFCO's businesses: net debt was 2.6 times EBITDA (beia) at June 30, 2026, above its target of below 2.5 times. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. Volume must keep growing in all four regions, as in Q3 2026, when total volume grew 4.8%. The productivity program must save about €500 million a year and keep margins rising. And the new Chief Executive Officer, Rafa Oliveira, must show a plan that turns the strong brands into steadier growth. The FY 2026 results on February 10, 2027, when he gives his first view, are the next test.
Valuation: added: The intrinsic value for Heineken is an AI estimate from November 11, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Heineken's own reports. The values are per American depositary receipt (ADR) in U.S. dollars. The ADR page of Heineken's investor website says that two ADRs represent one Heineken ordinary share. The company reports in euros. The method is a multiple of diluted EPS before exceptional items and amortisation (beia) for 2027. The 2025 results (February 11, 2026) give diluted EPS (beia) of €4.78 for 2025. The H1 2026 results (August 5, 2026) give diluted EPS (beia) of €2.29, up 11.6%, net debt of €17,675 million and net debt to EBITDA (beia) of 2.6 times. They expect 2% to 6% organic operating profit growth in 2026, about 2% to 3% more EPS from the FIFCO purchase and the sale of its operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and about 2% more EPS from fewer shares. The Q3 2026 trading update (October 28, 2026) confirms this guidance. EPS is after interest, so the estimate makes no further debt adjustment. It uses an exchange rate of $1.122 per euro, the market rate on November 10, 2026, as an assumption. The EPS for 2027 and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes weak volumes and currencies, with EPS of €5.10, at 13.5 times. It gives €68.85 per share, €34.42 per ADR and $38.62 in U.S. dollars. The base case assumes EPS of €5.50 at 16.5 times. It gives €90.75 per share, €45.38 per ADR and $50.92. The high case assumes steady volume growth and higher margins, with EPS of €5.85, at 19 times. It gives €111.15 per share, €55.58 per ADR and $62.36. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $50.71 per ADR. The value moves with the euro. Intangible assets and cost advantage are the main sources of the advantage. The Heineken brand and the other global brands, and large brewing and distribution networks in many countries, are hard to copy. But beer volumes in Europe and the Americas grow slowly, and large rivals and local brands compete on price. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years. As of Nov 11, 2026.
Risks: added: Beer volumes in Europe and the Americas grow slowly or fall. In the first nine months of 2026, total volume fell 1.6% in the Americas and 0.1% in Europe, and volume in the USA remained under pressure. Heineken earns much of its profit in emerging markets such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Mexico and Brazil. Weaker currencies lower profit in euros, and in Nigeria volume and net revenue fell in Q3 2026. Net debt rose to €17,675 million at June 30, 2026 after the FIFCO purchase, and net debt to EBITDA (beia) was 2.6 times, above the target of below 2.5 times. More acquisitions can delay debt reduction. Commodity costs can lower margins. In August 2026, Heineken said that some commodity costs remained under pressure, and it expects variable costs per hectolitre to rise by a low single-digit percentage in 2026. A new Chief Executive Officer started on October 1, 2026. A change of strategy can bring new costs. The ADRs follow the share price in Amsterdam and the euro. A stronger U.S. dollar lowers the value of the ADRs in U.S. dollars.
Balance sheet: added: Cash: €2.8B Debt: €20.6B Net debt: €17.7B Net debt / EBITDA: 2.6× (medium) Ratings: Moody's A3 (stable outlook), S&P BBB+ (positive outlook) Heineken funds itself with borrowings, commercial paper and cash flow. At June 30, 2026, total borrowings were €20,644 million and cash and cash equivalents were €2,831 million. Net debt was €17,675 million, against €14,479 million at December 31, 2025, mainly because of the purchase of HEINEKEN Costa Rica. Net debt to EBITDA (beia) was 2.6 times, and the long-term target is below 2.5 times. Financing headroom at group level was about €3.1 billion, which includes the undrawn part of the committed €3.5 billion revolving credit facility. In the 2025 annual report, Moody's rated Heineken A3 with a stable outlook, and Standard & Poor's rated it BBB+ with a positive outlook. Free operating cash flow was €1,381 million in H1 2026. Up to October 23, 2026, Heineken had bought back 9,190,451 shares for €654 million in the second tranche of its €1.5 billion buyback. There were 571,446,631 issued shares at June 30, 2026. The interim dividend for 2026 is €0.76 per share. As of Jun 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: added: Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 trading update: volume growth. Passed. Watch: Volume growth in all four regions and the 2026 guidance kept pass; a cut fails. Outcome: Total volume grew 4.8% with growth in all four regions, and Heineken confirmed 2% to 6% organic operating profit growth for 2026. Feb 10, 2027: FY 2026 results and the new Chief Executive Officer's view. Pending. Watch: Organic operating profit growth of 2% to 6% in 2026 and net debt to EBITDA (beia) moving toward 2.5 times pass; a missed guidance fails. Aug 2027 (estimate): H1 2027 results: volume and margins. Pending. Watch: Volume growth and a higher operating profit (beia) margin pass; falling volume fails.
Recent events: added: Oct 28, 2026: Heineken reported its Q3 2026 trading update. Total volume grew 4.8% organically, with growth in all four regions, and net revenue (beia) grew 4.6% organically to €8,090 million. Volume of the Heineken brand grew 9.7%. Heineken confirmed its 2026 guidance of 2% to 6% organic operating profit growth and agreed to buy a majority stake in the ready-to-drink brand Stëlz. Oct 1, 2026: Rafa Oliveira became Chief Executive Officer. Dolf van den Brink left the position on May 31, 2026. Aug 5, 2026: Heineken reported H1 2026 results. Operating profit (beia) grew 6.7% organically to €2,170 million, and diluted EPS (beia) rose 11.6% to €2.29. Free operating cash flow was €1,381 million. Heineken set an interim dividend of €0.76 per share. Feb 11, 2026: Heineken reported 2025 results. Operating profit (beia) grew 4.4% organically to €4,385 million, and diluted EPS (beia) was €4.78. It proposed a dividend of €1.90 per share and planned to cut 5,000 to 6,000 roles over two years. Jan 30, 2026: Heineken completed the purchase of the beverage and retail businesses of FIFCO in Central America, now HEINEKEN Costa Rica. Jan 12, 2026: Heineken said that its Chief Executive Officer, Dolf van den Brink, would step down on May 31, 2026.