MPC changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $389.88
- Discount category
- Far above intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- 2027-02-03
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Marathon Petroleum
- Sector
- Oil refining & midstream
- About
- Marathon Petroleum runs the largest refining system in the United States. In Q3 2026, its refineries processed 3.2 million barrels per day at 100% crude capacity utilization. It sells fuels through branded Marathon outlets and other channels, and it makes renewable diesel. It also controls MPLX, a midstream partnership with pipelines, terminals and gas processing plants, and it owned about 64% of the MPLX common units at September 30, 2026. Its segments are Refining & Marketing, Midstream and Renewable Diesel. Marathon Petroleum is based in Findlay, Ohio, and its shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
- Thesis
- Marathon Petroleum trades at a premium because investors pay for record refining margins and for the steady cash from its MPLX stake. In Q3 2026, Refining & Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA was $34.15 per barrel, against $6.37 a year earlier, because crack spreads rose in all regions. The 10-Q names the U.S.-Iran conflict as one cause of price swings and supply disruptions. MPLX raised its distribution by 12.5%, and MPC expects $3.1 billion a year of distributions from it. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true. Refining margins must stay well above the 2025 level, when the segment earned $6.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the full year, through 2027. MPC must use the cash for buybacks under its $8.1 billion authorization and for good projects, while its own debt stays low. The sale of the St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries for $4.2 billion must close at the end of 2026, and MPC must reinvest the money at good returns on the Gulf Coast. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, gives the next test. If crack spreads fall back as supply returns, the premium can shrink quickly, within a few quarters.
- Risks
- Refining margins move with crack spreads, which were very high in 2026. If the U.S.-Iran conflict ends or new refining capacity starts, margins can fall to the 2025 level quickly. MPLX had $26.608 billion of debt at September 30, 2026. MPC consolidates this debt, and MPLX's cash flow depends on oil and gas volumes in the Permian and Marcellus basins. The sale of the St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries needs regulatory approvals. A delay or a poor use of the $3.45 billion of proceeds can lower returns. Rules on fuels, emissions and renewable fuel credits can raise costs or lower demand for gasoline and diesel over time. Refineries can have fires, outages and long turnarounds. Planned turnaround costs were $1.1 billion in the first nine months of 2026.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $13.6B Debt: $33.0B Net debt: $19.4B EBITDA, last 12 months: $26.4B Net debt / EBITDA: 0.7× (low) Undrawn credit line: $5.0B, to April 2031 Marathon Petroleum consolidates MPLX, so most of the reported debt is MPLX debt. At September 30, 2026, total consolidated debt was $33.022 billion, of which $6.414 billion was MPC debt and $26.608 billion was MPLX debt. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $13.6 billion, including $1.3 billion at MPLX, so MPC alone had more cash than debt. Adjusted EBITDA was $26.4 billion for the four quarters to September 30, 2026 (a sum of the quarterly releases). MPC had no borrowings under its $5 billion revolving credit facility, which matures in April 2031. On September 15, 2026, it redeemed $749 million of notes due December 2026. MPC owned about 647 million MPLX common units with a market value of $36.46 billion at September 30, 2026, and it expects about $784 million of MPLX distributions for the quarter paid in November 2026. As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 3, 2026: Q3 2026 results: refining margins. Passed. Watch: High refining margins, strong cash returns and a higher dividend pass; a fall in margins or lower buybacks fail. Outcome: Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA was $34.15 per barrel, MPC returned $3.3 billion, raised the dividend by 10% and added a $5 billion buyback. Feb 3, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: margins and the refinery sale. Pending. Watch: Margins well above the 2025 level, a closed refinery sale and continued buybacks pass; a sharp fall in margins or a delayed sale fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-11-03: Marathon Petroleum reported Q3 2026 results. Net income attributable to MPC was $7.4 billion, or $26.59 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $11.7 billion, against $3.2 billion a year earlier. It returned $3.3 billion to shareholders, and its board approved an additional $5 billion share buyback. It agreed on November 2, 2026 to sell its St. Paul Park and Mandan refineries and related midstream assets for $4.2 billion, with $3.45 billion for MPC and $750 million for MPLX. It expects the sale to close at the end of 2026. 2026-10-29: Marathon Petroleum elected David E. Constable as a director from March 1, 2027. 2026-10-28: Marathon Petroleum raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to $1.10 per share. 2026-09-15: Marathon Petroleum redeemed all $749 million of its senior notes due December 2026. 2026-08-04: Marathon Petroleum reported Q2 2026 results. Net income attributable to MPC was $5.1 billion, or $17.73 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $8.5 billion. Refining & Marketing segment adjusted EBITDA was $24.84 per barrel. It returned over $2.8 billion to shareholders. 2026-05-05: Marathon Petroleum reported Q1 2026 results. Net income attributable to MPC was $511 million, or $1.73 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $2.8 billion. 2026-04-07: Marathon Petroleum signed a new $5.0 billion five-year revolving credit agreement that matures on April 7, 2031. MPLX signed a new $2.5 billion facility. 2026-02-03: Marathon Petroleum reported 2025 results. Net income attributable to MPC was $4.0 billion, or $13.22 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $12.0 billion. It returned $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2025.