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ONC changes

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View the full Nov 11, 2026 version
Price
$424.00
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings
Feb 5, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
added: BeOne Medicines
Sector
added: Biotechnology (oncology)
About
added: BeOne Medicines Ltd. (BeOne), formerly BeiGene, is a global oncology company. Its main medicine is BRUKINSA (zanubrutinib), a BTK inhibitor for blood cancers such as chronic lymphocytic leukemia, with global sales of $1.4 billion in Q3 2026. It also sells TEVIMBRA (tislelizumab), a PD-1 antibody, and BEQALZI (sonrotoclax), a BCL2 inhibitor that the U.S. FDA approved in May 2026 for relapsed or refractory mantle cell lymphoma. In China it also sells medicines licensed from Amgen. Total revenue was $1.89 billion in Q3 2026. BeOne has nearly 12,000 employees and its own manufacturing in China and the United States. It is incorporated in Switzerland, with its registered office in Basel. Its American depositary shares (ADS) trade on Nasdaq as ONC, and each ADS represents 13 ordinary shares. The shares also trade in Hong Kong and Shanghai. John V. Oyler is Co-Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
Thesis
added: The market prices BeOne mainly on BRUKINSA, which gave about three quarters of product revenue in Q3 2026. Investors doubt how long BRUKINSA can keep its fast growth against other BTK medicines, and whether the large research budget will produce the next medicines before the main BRUKINSA patent ends in 2034. Its links to China add policy risk. For the shares to earn more, three things must be true. BRUKINSA must keep gaining share in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and add first-line mantle cell lymphoma, where the FDA gave the MANGROVE filing priority review. BEQALZI and the BTK degrader tacabrutideg must move towards wider approvals. And the operating margin must keep rising as revenue grows. The MANGROVE results at ASH in December 2026 and the Q4 2026 report with the 2027 guidance, expected in February 2027, are the next tests.
Risks
added: BRUKINSA gave about three quarters of product revenue in Q3 2026. Stronger competition from other BTK inhibitors or new treatments for chronic lymphocytic leukemia would lower growth fast. Generic companies can challenge the BRUKINSA patents. Zydus challenged some Orange Book patents in 2026. The composition of matter patent runs until 2034 in the United States. U.S. drug pricing policy, such as the executive orders of 2025 on most-favored-nation prices and Medicare price negotiation, can lower prices in the largest market. In China, the government sets reimbursement and uses volume-based procurement, which lowers prices. Tax audits, such as the 2026 settlement of about RMB 446 million, and tension between the United States and China add risk. BeOne spends about $2.4 billion a year on research and development. Failed trials of medicines such as BEQALZI or tacabrutideg would lower future growth. Share-based compensation was $393 million in the first nine months of 2026. New share awards dilute the holders.
Balance sheet
added: Cash: $5.8B Debt: $1.1B Net cash: $4.7B Debt due within 12 months: $249M BeOne has much more cash than debt. At September 30, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $5,781 million, and restricted cash was $85 million. Debt was $1,074 million: short-term debt of $249 million and long-term debt of $825 million, mainly bank loans. BeOne expects to repay about $259 million in the next 12 months, and most other loans are due in 2027 and 2028. In 2025 it sold its royalty rights on Amgen's IMDELLTRA outside China to Royalty Pharma. This is a liability of $913 million, which BeOne repays only from the royalties that it receives from Amgen, through at least 2041, so it is not part of the debt. Free cash flow was $1,069 million in the first nine months of 2026. BeOne expects to reverse a large part of the valuation allowance on its deferred tax assets in Q4 2026, which will give a large non-cash tax benefit. At October 30, 2026, there were 1,484,939,031 ordinary shares, equal to about 114.2 million ADS. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
added: Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: BRUKINSA growth. Passed. Watch: BRUKINSA growth of 25% or more and a higher operating margin pass; slower growth fails. Outcome: BRUKINSA sales rose 34%, and BeOne raised its 2026 revenue and operating income guidance. Dec 2026 (estimate): ASH 2026: MANGROVE results in first-line mantle cell lymphoma. Pending. Watch: A clear progression-free survival benefit for BRUKINSA in the plenary session passes; a weak or unclear benefit fails. Feb 5, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with revenue growth of 15% or more and a higher operating margin passes; lower growth fails.
Recent events
added: Nov 5, 2026: BeOne reported Q3 2026 results. Total revenue rose 34% to $1.89 billion, and BRUKINSA sales rose 34% to $1.4 billion. GAAP diluted EPS was $3.28 per ADS and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $4.59 per ADS. BeOne raised its 2026 guidance to revenue of $6.9 billion to $7.0 billion and non-GAAP operating income of $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion. It also reported FDA priority review for the MANGROVE filing of BRUKINSA in first-line mantle cell lymphoma. Aug 5, 2026: BeOne reported Q2 2026 results. Total revenue rose 30% to $1.7 billion, and BeOne raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion. Jun 26, 2026: BeOne said that it settled a statutory tax audit in China. It agreed to pay income tax, surcharges and interest of about RMB 446 million, with no penalty. May 13, 2026: The U.S. FDA gave accelerated approval to BEQALZI (sonrotoclax) for adults with relapsed or refractory mantle cell lymphoma after at least two lines of therapy, including a BTK inhibitor. Feb 26, 2026: BeOne reported 2025 results. Total revenue rose 40% to $5.34 billion, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $8.09 per ADS. Its first 2026 revenue guidance was $6.2 billion to $6.4 billion. Feb 25, 2026: BeOne sued Zydus in New Jersey after Zydus filed to sell a generic version of BRUKINSA tablets. BeOne said that Zydus did not challenge the composition of matter patent, which protects BRUKINSA until 2034.