- Company name
- Suncor Energy
- Sector
- Integrated oil & gas
- About
- Suncor Energy is Canada's leading integrated energy company. It mines oil sands at its wholly owned Oil Sands Base and Fort Hills mines and at Syncrude, in which it owns 58.74%, and it produces bitumen from in situ wells at Firebag and MacKay River. It upgrades much of the bitumen into synthetic crude oil and diesel. It also produces oil off the east coast of Canada, runs refineries in Canada and the United States with a nameplate capacity of 511,000 barrels per day from 2026, and sells fuel through the Petro-Canada retail and wholesale networks, with 1,732 retail stations in Canada at the end of 2025. In 2025, upstream production was a record 860,000 barrels per day and refining throughput was a record 480,000 barrels per day. The head office is in Calgary, Alberta, and Rich Kruger is its chief executive officer.
- Thesis
- Suncor trades above the AI estimate because investors pay for record cash flow at high oil prices and for large share buybacks. WTI averaged US$85.70 per barrel in Q3 2026, against US$64.95 a year earlier, and adjusted operating earnings rose to C$4.63 billion from C$1.79 billion. Net debt fell to C$1.75 billion at September 30, 2026. Suncor now buys back C$750 million of shares each month, and it raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to C$0.66. But earnings move with oil prices and refining margins, which Suncor does not control. For the price to be earned, three things must be true. Oil prices must stay well above the levels of 2025, when WTI averaged US$64.75. Suncor must meet its 2026 Investor Day goals to raise normalized free funds flow by C$2 billion and lower its WTI breakeven by US$5 per barrel to US$38 by 2028. Upstream production must grow by 100,000 barrels per day by 2028 without large cost increases. The Q4 2026 report, expected in early February 2027, is the next test. If oil prices fall to the levels of 2025, the stock can fall below the AI estimate.
- Valuation
- The intrinsic value for Suncor Energy is an AI estimate from November 10, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Suncor's filings. The company reports in Canadian dollars, and the estimate is in Canadian dollars per share on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The method is a multiple of adjusted operating earnings per share for 2027 at an assumed oil price. The 2025 annual MD&A (40-F, February 26, 2026) gives an average WTI price of US$64.75 per barrel for 2025. The third quarter 2026 MD&A (6-K, November 4, 2026) gives quarterly adjusted operating earnings that add up to C$5,621 million for 2025, and C$4,631 million for Q3 2026 at a WTI price of US$85.70. It gives net debt of C$1,751 million and 1,151,224,232 shares outstanding on October 29, 2026. At this share count, 2025 adjusted operating earnings equal C$4.88 per share. The multiple applies to earnings after interest, so the estimate does not subtract the debt again. The WTI price, the effect of the price on earnings and the multiples are assumptions. The estimate assumes that each change of US$1 per barrel in WTI changes annual adjusted operating earnings by about C$0.30 per share. The low case assumes WTI of US$60 and 2027 earnings of C$3.46 per share, at 12 times. It gives C$41.52 per share. The base case assumes WTI of US$75, below the 2026 level, and earnings of C$7.96 per share, at 11 times. It gives C$87.56 per share. The high case assumes WTI of US$90 and earnings of C$12.46 per share, at 10 times. It gives C$124.60 per share. The estimate assumes that the market pays a lower multiple for earnings at high oil prices. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is C$85.31 per share. The estimate finds no lasting advantage. Suncor owns long-life oil sands mines with 30 billion barrels of contingent resources, and its upgraders, refineries and Petro-Canada stations capture more of the value of each barrel. But the market sets the price of oil, the company plans to lower its WTI breakeven only to US$38 per barrel by 2028, and rules for lower emissions and long-term oil demand can change the value of the reserves. So the estimate does not expect the advantage to last 10 years.
As of 2026-11-10.
- Risks
- Earnings move with crude oil prices, heavy oil price differentials and refining margins, which Suncor does not control. Adjusted operating earnings were C$1.48 per share in Q3 2025, when WTI averaged US$64.95, and C$3.97 in Q3 2026, when WTI averaged US$85.70.
Royalties and income taxes rise with prices: current income tax and royalties expenses were C$8.07 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Changes to royalty, tax or emissions rules can lower cash flow.
Mines, upgraders and refineries need large turnarounds and can have outages. Upstream production fell to 761,000 barrels per day in Q2 2026 during the Firebag turnaround.
The sale of the offshore assets to Ithaca Energy needs regulatory approvals and partner consents. If it does not close, Suncor keeps their costs and liabilities.
Long-term demand for oil and rules for lower emissions can lower the value of long-life oil sands reserves. Provisions, mostly for asset retirement, were C$10.15 billion in non-current liabilities at September 30, 2026.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: CA$8.0B
Debt: CA$9.8B
Net debt: CA$1.8B
Interest cover: 24×
Undrawn credit line: CA$5.3B
Debt due within 12 months: CA$561M
Suncor funds itself with notes and debentures, lease liabilities and equity. At September 30, 2026, total debt was C$9.75 billion: C$9.19 billion of long-term debt and C$561 million due within one year. Lease liabilities of C$4.69 billion are not in this total. Cash was C$8.00 billion, so net debt was C$1.75 billion, against C$6.34 billion at December 31, 2025. In 2026, Suncor repaid its US$275 million of 7.875% debentures in June and its C$96 million of 3.00% notes in September. Available credit facilities for liquidity were C$5.30 billion. Interest cover is earnings before income taxes plus interest expense, divided by interest expense, for the first nine months of 2026 (C$13,335 million against C$564 million). Total equity was C$49.67 billion. In the first nine months of 2026, Suncor paid a dividend of C$0.60 per share each quarter and bought back shares, and it projects total 2026 share repurchases of C$5.5 billion. There were 1,151,224,232 shares outstanding on October 29, 2026.
As of 2026-09-30.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 3, 2026: Q3 2026 results and shareholder returns. Passed. Watch: Higher adjusted funds from operations and kept buybacks pass; lower buybacks fail. Outcome: Adjusted funds from operations reached a record C$6.7 billion, and Suncor raised buybacks to C$750 million a month and its dividend by 10%.
Feb 2, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 plan. Pending. Watch: Upstream production near 2026 levels and buybacks of C$750 million a month pass; lower buybacks or production fail.
Q1 2027 (estimate): Sale of offshore assets to Ithaca closes. Pending. Watch: Closing in early 2027 with the C$1.2 billion cash payment passes; a failed or late sale fails.
- Recent events
- 2026-11-03: Suncor reported Q3 2026 results. Adjusted operating earnings were C$4.63 billion, or C$3.97 per share, against C$1.79 billion. Net earnings were C$3.81 billion, after a C$1.08 billion impairment for the planned sale of offshore assets. Adjusted funds from operations were a record C$6.71 billion and free funds flow was C$5.20 billion. Upstream production was 852,500 barrels per day. Suncor returned C$2.05 billion to shareholders, including C$1.35 billion of buybacks, and raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to C$0.66 per share, payable on December 24, 2026.
2026-10-04: Suncor agreed to sell its 48% interest in Terra Nova, 40% interest in White Rose and 38.6% interest in West White Rose to Ithaca Energy for C$1.2 billion in cash and a contingent payment of up to C$350 million. Ithaca takes on the future liabilities, including about C$1.4 billion of abandonment and lease liabilities. The sale is expected to close in early 2027. Suncor raised its share buybacks to C$750 million a month from October 2026.
2026-08-04: Suncor reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted operating earnings were C$3.80 billion, or C$3.23 per share, and adjusted funds from operations were C$5.33 billion. Upstream production fell to 761,000 barrels per day because of a planned turnaround at Firebag. Suncor raised its share buybacks to C$500 million a month from C$350 million from August 2026.
2026-05-05: Suncor reported Q1 2026 results. Adjusted operating earnings were C$2.30 billion, or C$1.93 per share, and adjusted funds from operations were C$4.03 billion. Upstream production was a first-quarter record of 875,200 barrels per day, and refining throughput was a first-quarter record of 497,800 barrels per day.
2026-03-31: At its 2026 Investor Day, Suncor set goals for 2028: C$2 billion more normalized free funds flow, a WTI breakeven US$5 per barrel lower at US$38, and 100,000 barrels per day more upstream production. It raised the refining nameplate capacity by 10% to 511,000 barrels per day, reported total contingent resources of 30 billion barrels and raised its planned 2026 buybacks to C$4 billion.
2026-02-03: Suncor reported 2025 results. Adjusted funds from operations were C$12.8 billion and free funds flow was C$6.9 billion. Suncor returned about C$5.8 billion to shareholders. Upstream production was a record 860,000 barrels per day, and refining throughput was a record 480,000 barrels per day.