TJX changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $135.30 → $136.44(+0.8%)
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market doubts that TJX can keep its recent growth in profit. Part of the fiscal 2027 profit comes from one-time refunds of tariffs. In Q2 fiscal 2027, refunds of $331 million less related bonus costs added $0.14 to diluted EPS. Comparable sales at Marmaxx, the largest division, grew only 1%, below the plan, while the other divisions grew 6% to 7%. Store wage and payroll costs also rise. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Marmaxx comparable sales must recover, as management said they started to do early in Q3. The adjusted pretax margin must keep rising without help from tariff refunds, from the fiscal 2027 guidance of 12.0% to 12.1%. Store growth must speed up to 4% a year from fiscal 2028, on the way to a target of 7,500 stores. The Q3 fiscal 2027 removed: report, expected in mid-November added: report on November 18, 2026, gives the next test with the holiday quarter guidance. The full-year report, expected in late February 2027, gives the fiscal 2028 plan. If these checks pass, the gap can close within about a year.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 18, removed: 2026 (estimate): added: 2026: Q3 fiscal 2027 results: Marmaxx and holiday outlook. Pending. Watch: Comparable sales at the top of the 2% to 3% guidance with better Marmaxx sales and a kept full-year outlook pass; weak Marmaxx sales or a lower outlook fail. Feb 24, 2027 (estimate): Full-year fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 plan. Pending. Watch: A fiscal 2028 plan with a higher adjusted pretax margin and 4% store growth passes; a lower margin without tariff refunds fails.