- Company name
- Tokio Marine Holdings
- Sector
- Insurance
- About
- Tokio Marine Holdings is one of the three large property and casualty insurance groups in Japan. Its main Japanese company is Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance. It also sells life insurance in Japan and owns specialty insurers in the United States and other countries, such as Philadelphia, Tokio Marine HCC, Delphi Financial and Safety National. International business gave ¥164.3 billion of the ¥261.3 billion of adjusted net income in the three months to June 30, 2026. The company reports under IFRS, and its fiscal year ends on March 31. Its shares trade in Tokyo, and its ADSs trade over the counter in the United States. The company split each share into 15 shares on October 1, 2026, and each ADS represents one share.
- Thesis
- The market prices Tokio Marine close to the AI estimate. Investors pay for its growth abroad and for its partnership with Berkshire Hathaway, but they doubt the profit of the Japanese business and the speed of the plan to raise returns. Adjusted net income from Japan fell 15% in the three months to June 30, 2026, while international adjusted net income rose 9%. A Japanese subsidiary still reports to the Financial Services Agency on its business improvement plan. For the stock to keep pace with the AI estimate, three things must be true. Adjusted net income must reach the forecast of ¥950.0 billion for the year to March 31, 2027. The company must carry out its planned share buybacks of ¥400.0 billion for the year and keep selling business-related equities, which it plans to cut to zero by the end of fiscal 2029. Adjusted ROE must rise from 12.9% in fiscal 2025 toward the Aspiration 2035 target of 17% or more. The first-half results, expected in mid-November 2026, give the next test. The full-year results in May 2027 give the one after it. If profit in Japan keeps falling or large catastrophe losses come, the stock can fall below the AI estimate.
- Valuation
- The intrinsic value for Tokio Marine Holdings is an AI estimate from November 9, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from Tokio Marine's filings and presentations. The method is a multiple of adjusted earnings per share for the year to March 31, 2028. The summary report for the three months ended June 30, 2026 (August 12, 2026) gives the forecast of adjusted net income of ¥950,000 million and adjusted EPS of ¥514 for the year to March 31, 2027, before the share split. It also gives 1,934,000,000 shares issued and 34,005,955 treasury shares at June 30, 2026, and equity attributable to owners of the parent of ¥8,197,310 million. The company split each share into 15 shares on October 1, 2026, so the estimate divides each per-share figure by 15. The forecast adjusted EPS is ¥34.27 after the split. The FY2026 IR conference presentation (May 2026) gives the dividend of ¥245 before the split, planned buybacks of ¥400.0 billion and the Aspiration 2035 targets of profit growth of 7% or more a year and adjusted ROE of 17% or more. The estimate assumes that each ADS represents one share after the split. The ADS price of $3.65 and the Tokyo price of ¥569.8 on November 6, 2026 agree with this ratio. The estimate uses an exchange rate of ¥157.95 per U.S. dollar, the market rate on November 9, 2026, as an assumption. The EPS and the multiples in each case are assumptions. The low case assumes adjusted EPS of ¥34.50 for the year to March 2028, about flat, at 13 times. Catastrophe losses and weak profit in Japan hold growth back in this case. It gives ¥448.50 per share and $2.84 per ADS. The base case assumes ¥37.00, growth of about 8% with buybacks, at 16 times. It gives ¥592.00 per share and $3.75 per ADS. The high case assumes ¥39.50, growth of about 15%, at 18 times. It gives ¥711.00 per share and $4.50 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $3.71 per ADS. The value moves with the yen. Efficient scale and intangible assets are the main sources of the advantage. Tokio Marine & Nichido is one of three large property and casualty groups in Japan, and its agent network and brand keep customers for many years. Its U.S. specialty insurers earn good margins in niche markets. But Japanese insurance prices are under regulation, the subsidiary is under a business improvement plan, and adjusted ROE was only 12.9% in fiscal 2025. The estimate expects the advantage to last 10 years or more, but not 20 years.
As of 2026-11-09.
- Risks
- Natural catastrophes in Japan and the United States can cause large losses. Profit from Japanese property and casualty insurance fell in the three months to June 30, 2026.
A Japanese subsidiary reports to the Financial Services Agency on a business improvement plan. New findings or rules can increase costs or limit sales.
The company plans to sell all business-related equities by the end of fiscal 2029. These shares were 24.5% of IFRS net assets in fiscal 2025. A fall in Japanese stock prices lowers their value before the sales.
The company buys businesses abroad, such as Direct Commercial in 2026. A large purchase at a high price can lower returns.
The ADS price is in U.S. dollars, but the company reports in yen. A weaker yen lowers the value of each ADS.
- Balance sheet
- Tokio Marine is an insurer, so its balance sheet is mostly investments that back insurance contracts. Total assets were ¥33.68 trillion and equity attributable to owners of the parent was ¥8.20 trillion at June 30, 2026, up from ¥7.96 trillion at March 31, 2026. The economic solvency ratio (ESR) was 268% at March 31, 2026 under the new definition, against a target of 190% or more. The company plans share buybacks of ¥400.0 billion for the year to March 2027 and a dividend of ¥245 per share before the split. Business-related equities were 24.5% of IFRS net assets in fiscal 2025, and the company plans to cut them below 20% by the end of fiscal 2026 and to zero by the end of fiscal 2029.
As of 2026-06-30.
- Checkpoints
- Aug 12, 2026: First-quarter fiscal 2026 results. Passed. Watch: Adjusted net income near a quarter of the ¥950.0 billion forecast and a kept forecast pass; a lower forecast fails. Outcome: Adjusted net income was ¥261.3 billion, 28% of the forecast, and the company kept its full-year forecast, although profit in Japan fell 15%.
Nov 19, 2026 (estimate): First-half fiscal 2026 results. Pending. Watch: Adjusted net income on track for ¥950.0 billion, a kept forecast and progress on buybacks pass; a lower forecast or a further fall in Japan fail.
May 2027 (estimate): Full-year fiscal 2026 results and new targets. Pending. Watch: Adjusted net income of ¥950.0 billion or more with a higher adjusted ROE passes; lower profit or flat returns fail.
- Recent events
- 2026-10-22: Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance stopped its website for a short time after a critical vulnerability in PHP became public. It started the website again on the same evening. The company found no leak of personal information and no damage to its systems.
2026-10-01: Tokio Marine split each common share into 15 shares. It announced the split on August 25, 2026 to lower the minimum investment. Market prices show that the ADSs split in the same ratio, so each ADS still represents one share.
2026-09-09: Tokio Marine HCC completed the purchase of Direct Commercial Limited, a UK managing general agent for commercial motor insurance. Tokio Marine agreed to the deal on August 28, 2026 at an enterprise value of £265 million, about ¥57.3 billion.
2026-08-12: Tokio Marine reported results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. Adjusted net income fell 3.6% to ¥261.3 billion. International adjusted net income rose 9% and Japanese adjusted net income fell 15%. Net income attributable to owners of the parent rose 3.3% to ¥264.3 billion. The company kept its forecast of ¥950.0 billion of adjusted net income for the year to March 31, 2027.
2026-05-26: Tokio Marine published Aspiration 2035. It aims for adjusted net income of ¥1,700.0 billion or more and an adjusted ROE of 17% or more by 2035, with profit growth of 7% or more a year.
2026-05-20: Tokio Marine reported results for the year ended March 31, 2026. Adjusted net income on the IFRS basis was ¥881.5 billion and adjusted ROE was 12.9%. The annual dividend was ¥218 per share before the split. For the year to March 2027, it forecast adjusted net income of ¥950.0 billion, a dividend of ¥245 per share before the split and share buybacks of ¥400.0 billion.
2026-03-23: Tokio Marine announced a strategic partnership with Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire agreed to buy about 2.5% of the shares from Tokio Marine's treasury stock, for ¥287.4 billion. The partnership also includes a quota share reinsurance of part of the group's portfolio and work together on M&A.