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UBS

Current
Price
$48.96
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings
2027-02-03
Next earnings is estimate
No
Company name
UBS Group
Sector
Banking & wealth management
About
UBS is the largest Swiss bank and one of the largest wealth managers in the world. It has five business divisions: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking in Switzerland, Asset Management, the Investment Bank, and Non-core and Legacy, which holds the positions it is closing down. Invested assets were $7.3 trillion at September 30, 2026. UBS bought Credit Suisse in June 2023 and plans to complete most of the integration by the end of 2026. Revenue was $41.3 billion in the first nine months of 2026. UBS reports in US dollars. Its registered shares trade on the SIX Swiss Exchange in Swiss francs and on the New York Stock Exchange in US dollars.
Thesis
The market prices UBS for the risk of much higher capital rules in Switzerland. In September 2026, the upper house of the Swiss Parliament supported a rule that makes large banks deduct 90% of the value of foreign subsidiaries from CET1 capital. If the lower house agrees, UBS AG must hold about $16 billion more CET1 capital from 2028 at the earliest. UBS says that this would bring the extra capital since the Credit Suisse purchase to about $33 billion, with an annual cost of about $2.5 billion. This rule can limit buybacks and lower returns, so investors pay less for each dollar of book value. The business itself performs well. Net profit rose 30% to $8.5 billion in the first nine months of 2026, underlying return on tangible equity was 14.6%, and Global Wealth Management had $55.1 billion of net new assets in Q3 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The Swiss Parliament must pass a softer rule, or give a long phase-in. UBS must reach its exit rate targets at the end of 2026, an underlying return on CET1 capital of about 15% and a cost to income ratio below 70%, and move toward a reported return on CET1 capital of about 18% in 2028. UBS must keep the CET1 ratio near 14% and still return capital. The Q4 2026 results on February 3, 2027 give the next test, with the 2027 buyback plan. The vote of the National Council, the lower house, gives the main test; press reports say that it may debate the rule in its winter session in December 2026. If the rule becomes softer, the gap can close within one to two years. The main reason it may not close is a final rule as strict as the upper house's version.
Risks
Switzerland can require UBS AG to hold about $16 billion more CET1 capital for foreign subsidiaries, from 2028 at the earliest. This can limit buybacks, lower returns and make UBS change its structure. UBS must finish the Credit Suisse integration in 2026, including the shutdown of old IT systems. Integration expenses reached $14.6 billion at September 30, 2026. Delays or IT failures can raise costs. Wealth management and investment banking revenue depend on financial markets. A market fall lowers fees, trading income and net new assets. UBS still has legal matters from Credit Suisse. It settled some in Q3 2026 for a net gain, but new fines or settlements can add costs.
Balance sheet
UBS is a bank group, so capital and liquidity matter more than net debt. Total assets were $1,655 billion and equity attributable to shareholders was $88.6 billion at September 30, 2026. CET1 capital was $73.1 billion, and the CET1 ratio was 14.7% on risk-weighted assets of $496.1 billion. The CET1 leverage ratio was 4.6%, the total loss-absorbing capacity ratio was 37.6% and the liquidity coverage ratio was 178.7%. Tangible book value per share was $27.00. In September 2026, UBS bought back $9.8 billion of legacy Credit Suisse senior debt, with a net loss of $346 million that lower interest costs will offset. UBS aims to keep a CET1 ratio of about 14% and a CET1 leverage ratio above 4.0%, and it expects to end 2026 at or very close to 14%. For a bank, net debt is not a useful measure, so this profile does not show debt figures. As of 2026-09-30.
Checkpoints
Dec 2026 (estimate): National Council debate on foreign subsidiaries. Pending. Watch: A rule that needs much less than about $16 billion of extra CET1 capital, or a long phase-in, passes; the upper house's version without change fails. Feb 3, 2027: Q4 2026 results and 2027 capital returns. Pending. Watch: Exit rate targets met, a CET1 ratio near 14% and a 2027 buyback plan at or above $3 billion pass; missed targets or a smaller buyback plan fail.
Recent events
2026-10-28: UBS reported Q3 2026 results. Net profit was $2,690 million, up 8%, and diluted EPS was $0.85. Underlying return on tangible equity was 14.9%, and the CET1 ratio was 14.7%. Global Wealth Management had net new assets of $55.1 billion. UBS bought back $1,807 million of shares in the quarter and expects to complete its $3 billion buyback program by its Q4 results. Cumulative gross cost savings reached $13.2 billion, and UBS now expects about $13.7 billion by the end of 2026. UBS said that in September 2026 the Council of States, the upper house of the Swiss Parliament, supported a rule that makes large banks deduct 90% of the value of foreign subsidiaries from CET1 capital, which would require about $16 billion more CET1 capital at UBS AG. In the same month, UBS bought back $9.8 billion of legacy Credit Suisse senior debt for about $9.9 billion. 2026-10-22: UBS exercised its warrants in 360 ONE WAM, an Indian wealth and asset manager, and now holds about 4.8% of the company. 2026-07-29: UBS reported Q2 2026 results. Net profit was $2,800 million and diluted EPS was $0.87. 2026-04-29: UBS reported Q1 2026 results. Net profit rose to $3,040 million from $1,692 million a year earlier. 2026-04-22: The Swiss Federal Council published its final Capital Adequacy Ordinance and sent its proposal on the capital treatment of foreign subsidiaries to Parliament. UBS said that it strongly disagrees with the package. 2026-02-04: UBS reported 2025 results. Net profit was $7,767 million, up from $5,085 million in 2024. It proposed a dividend of $1.10 per share and said that it intends to buy back $3 billion of shares in 2026, with the aim to do more. It set a target of a reported return on CET1 capital of about 18% in 2028. 2026-01-12: UBS published its response to the Federal Council's consultation on the Banking Act and the Capital Adequacy Ordinance.
See changes