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NatWest Group

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Updated

Price
$17.39
Analysts view
Analysts Bullish
Discount category
Below intrinsic value
Top pick
Top pick
Next earnings
Earnings Oct 30 ·

In short

Thesis
The market prices NatWest for its dependence on the UK economy and on UK interest rates, and results on guidance with a new buyback over the next three to five quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q3 2026 results in late October 2026 and the full-year results with the next buyback in February 2027 show whether returns and capital hold.

Price history

About

NatWest Group is one of the largest banks in the United Kingdom, with more than 20 million customers. It has three customer businesses. Retail Banking gives mortgages, loans, current accounts and savings to individuals. Private Banking & Wealth Management serves wealthy clients, and it grew with the purchase of the wealth manager Evelyn Partners on June 30, 2026.

Commercial & Institutional serves businesses, from start-ups to large companies, and it is a leader in UK infrastructure and project finance. The group is based in London. Its American Depositary Shares trade in New York.

Thesis

The market prices NatWest for its dependence on the UK economy and on UK interest rates. Much of its income comes from the margin on UK loans and deposits, so lower Bank of England rates and lower mortgage margins can reduce income. The purchase of Evelyn Partners on June 30, 2026 cut the CET1 ratio by about 1.4 percentage points to 13.2%, reduced tangible net asset value per share to 359p from 400p at March 31, 2026, and moved the next share buyback to the full-year 2026 results. For the gap to close, three things must be true.

NatWest must reach its 2026 guidance: total income of about £17.9 billion excluding notable items, costs of about £8.5 billion and a return on tangible equity above 19%. Income from its structural hedge must rise by more than £1.5 billion in 2026 and more than £1.0 billion in 2027, as the bank expects. Evelyn Partners must add income and assets under management without large integration costs. The Q3 2026 results on October 30, 2026 give the next test.

The full-year 2026 results in February 2027 show the size of the next buyback. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker UK economy, which can raise bad loans and lower loan demand.

Checkpoints

  1. Oct 30, 2026Pending
    Q3 2026 results: income, impairments and capitalIncome on track for about £17.9 billion in 2026, a loan impairment rate below 25 basis points and a CET1 ratio of 13% or more pass; lower guidance or higher impairments fail.
  2. Feb 2027 · est.Pending
    Full-year 2026 results: share buybackA return on tangible equity above 19% for 2026 and a new share buyback pass; no buyback or a lower return fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • October 16, 2026NatWest Group issued $1.0 billion of 5.908% senior callable fixed-to-fixed reset rate notes due 2032. It will use the money for its general banking business.
  • July 31, 2026NatWest reported H1 2026 results. Attributable profit was £3.0 billion, return on tangible equity was 19.7% and earnings per share rose 23.3% to 38.1p. Total income rose 11.0% to £8.86 billion. The cost:income ratio improved to 46.0%. The CET1 ratio fell to 13.2% after the Evelyn Partners purchase. NatWest raised its 2026 guidance, declared an interim dividend of 12.0p, and said that it will consider share buybacks from its full-year 2026 results.
  • June 30, 2026NatWest completed the purchase of Evelyn Partners, which added £71.7 billion of assets under management and administration. In the same quarter, it completed the sale of Cushon.

Latest news and filings

Next earnings
October 30, 2026, as the company confirmed.
  • 6-KInterim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · nwg-20260630x6k
  • 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · nwg-20251231x20f
  • 6-KInterim report for the period ended Jun 30, 2025Filed · nwg-20250630x6k
  • 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed · nwg-20241231x20f

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 844150)

Risks

  • NatWest lends almost only in the UK. A recession, higher unemployment or a fall in house prices can increase bad loans. The loan impairment rate was 19 basis points in H1 2026, and the bank expects less than 25 basis points for 2026.
  • Lower Bank of England rates and strong competition for mortgages and deposits can reduce the net interest margin. Retail Banking had lower mortgage margins in H1 2026, which hedge income offset.
  • The Evelyn Partners purchase adds a large wealth business. If integration costs are higher, or clients and advisers leave, the expected income may not come.
  • UK banks face regulatory changes and conduct claims. Basel 3.1 rules will increase risk-weighted assets by about £10 billion on January 1, 2027, by the bank's estimate, which uses capital.

Balance sheet

NatWest funds itself mostly with customer deposits. At June 30, 2026, total assets were £745.4 billion, customer deposits were £448.6 billion and loans to customers were £435.9 billion.

Dividends

Dividend yield
5.4% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $17.39)
Paid per share
$0.943 in the last 12 months (2 payments)
Current annual rate
$0.644 ($0.322 × 2 a year)
Latest ex-dividend date
August 14, 2026, $0.322 per share

Dividends per share by year

NatWest Group dividends per share by year
2016
$0.00
2017
$0.00
2018
$0.055
2019
$0.6767
2020
$0.2231
2021
$0.18
2022
$0.7313
2023
$0.52
2024
$0.444
2025
$0.645

Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew by about 39.3% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on October 26, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about NatWest Group

What does NatWest Group do?

NatWest Group is one of the largest banks in the United Kingdom, with more than 20 million customers. It has three customer businesses.

When does NatWest Group report earnings next?

The company confirmed that it will report on October 30, 2026. It last reported results on July 31, 2026.

Is NatWest Group stock below its intrinsic value?

NatWest Group stock is below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at NatWest Group?

The latest update is from October 16, 2026. NatWest Group issued $1.0 billion of 5.908% senior callable fixed-to-fixed reset rate notes due 2032.

What are the main risks for NatWest Group?

NatWest lends almost only in the UK. Lower Bank of England rates and strong competition for mortgages and deposits can reduce the net interest margin. The Evelyn Partners purchase adds a large wealth business.

How much debt and cash does NatWest Group have?

NatWest funds itself mostly with customer deposits. This is as of June 30, 2026.

Does NatWest Group pay a dividend?

Yes. NatWest Group paid $0.943 per share in the last 12 months. That is a dividend yield of 5.4% at the current price of $17.39. The latest ex-dividend date was August 14, 2026.

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